Alert archive / Oklahoma / River Flood Warnings in 2015

River Flood Warning 121, NWS Tulsa, OK

December 26, 2015Creek County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this river flood warning at Dec 26, 2015, 10:14 AM CST for Creek County, Oklahoma. It took effect at Dec 26, 2015, 11:37 PM CST. It was in force for 3 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Dec 26, 2015, 10:14 AM CST (16:14 UTC)
In effect from: Dec 26, 2015, 11:37 PM CST
Expired: Dec 30, 2015, 7:04 AM CST
In force: 3 days
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Minor

County Creek County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 51 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Polecat Creek near Sapulpa (SPCO2).

Action stage: 21 ft
Minor stage: 21 ft
Moderate stage: 25 ft
Major stage: 30 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 07165508, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

189 
WGUS44 KTSA 261614
FLWTSA
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1014 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015


...The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a Flood Warning 
for the following rivers in Oklahoma...

  Polecat Creek near Sapulpa affecting Creek County. 
  
  Polecat Creek near Jenks affecting Tulsa County. 
  
  Arkansas River near Muskogee affecting Muskogee County. 
  
OKC101-270014-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FL.W.0120.151227T1455Z-151230T0448Z/
/MKGO2.2.ER.151227T1455Z.151229T0000Z.151229T2248Z.NO/
1014 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Arkansas River near Muskogee
* from Sunday morning to Tuesday evening, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 10:00 AM Saturday, the stage was 20.78 feet.
* Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Arkansas River near Muskogee is expected to rise 
  above flood stage Sunday morning and continue to rise to near 33.5 
  feet by Monday evening. The river is expected to fall below flood 
  stage Tuesday afternoon. This forecast is based on forecast 
  rainfall. The river may crest higher or lower depending on
  where exactly the heaviest rainfall occurs. Continue to monitor 
  later updates to this forecast. 
* Impact...At 34.0 feet, severe flooding occurs along the Arkansas 
  River near Muskogee. Many areas on the grounds of the OG&E power 
  plant are flooded. This will compare with the flood of October 7, 
  1959 when the stage reached 34.0 feet. This is a dangerous 
  situation.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3583 9537 3559 9532 3547 9515 3552 9507 3583 9520

$$

OKC037-270013-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FL.W.0121.151227T0537Z-151229T1241Z/
/SPCO2.1.ER.151227T0537Z.151228T0600Z.151229T0641Z.NO/
1014 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa
* from this evening to Tuesday morning, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to have a maximum value of 24.8 
  feet Monday before dawn .This forecast is based on forecast 
  rainfall. The river may crest higher or lower depending on
  where exactly the heaviest rainfall occurs. Continue to monitor 
  later updates to this forecast. 
* Impact...At 25.0 feet, moderate flooding affects pasturelands and 
  oil fields between Sapulpa and the Tulsa County line. Barns and 
  other outbuildings experience minor flooding.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3600 9615 3592 9614 3599 9598 3606 9599

$$

OKC143-270013-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FL.W.0122.151228T1200Z-151229T0000Z/
/JNKO2.1.ER.151228T1200Z.151228T1200Z.151228T1800Z.NO/
1014 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Polecat Creek near Jenks
* from Monday morning to Monday evening, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  8:33 AM Saturday, the stage was  1.39 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...The Polecat Creek near Jenks is expected to rise to near
  flood stage Monday morning.This forecast is based on forecast 
  rainfall. The river may crest higher or lower depending on
  where exactly the heaviest rainfall occurs. Continue to monitor 
  later updates to this forecast. 
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, minor agricultral flooding occurs, primarily 
  west of Jenks.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3606 9607 3597 9607 3597 9591 3606 9591

$$

16 follow-up statements

853 
WGUS84 KTSA 262036
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
236 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Polecat Creek near Sapulpa affecting Creek County. 
  
  Bird Creek near Sperry affecting Osage and Tulsa Counties. 
  
  Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo affecting Tulsa County. 
  
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Polecat Creek near Jenks affecting Tulsa County. 
  
OKC113-143-270436-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0123.151227T2000Z-151230T0828Z/
/SPEO2.2.ER.151227T2000Z.151228T1800Z.151230T0228Z.NO/
236 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...Flood Warning extended until late Tuesday night...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Sperry.
* from Sunday afternoon to late Tuesday night, or until the warning 
  is cancelled.
* At  2:00 PM Saturday, the stage was  2.15 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Sperry is expected to rise above 
  flood stage early Sunday afternoon and continue to rise to near 
  27.0 feet by early Monday afternoon. The river is expected to fall 
  below flood stage Tuesday evening.The river may crest higher or 
  lower depending on where exactly the heaviest rainfall occurs. 
  Continue to monitor later updates to this forecast.
* Impact...At 27.0 feet, extensive flooding occurs. Lower urban areas 
  in east Skiatook begin to flood. Highway 20 east of Skiatook is 
  closed. Some roads between Turley and north Tulsa may be blocked.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3640 9605 3620 9598 3620 9590 3640 9593

$$

OKC143-270435-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0124.151227T1653Z-151230T1624Z/
/OWSO2.2.ER.151227T1653Z.151228T1800Z.151230T1024Z.NO/
236 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo.
* from Sunday morning to Wednesday morning, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  2:00 PM Saturday, the stage was  5.04 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo is expected to rise 
  above flood stage late Sunday morning and continue to rise to near 
  23.9 feet by early Monday afternoon. The river is expected to fall 
  below flood stage early Wednesday morning.The river may crest higher
  or lower depending on where exactly the heaviest rainfall occurs. 
  Continue to monitor later updates to this forecast.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet, serious overflows along Bird Creek reach into
  suburban areas south of Owasso. Mingo Road and several roads 
  southwest of Owasso and in the Mohawk Park area are closed. Flood 
  waters will threaten the Oxley Nature Center. This is an extremely 
  dangerous and life threatening situation.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3627 9594 3618 9594 3618 9570 3627 9570

$$

OKC037-270435-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0121.151227T0545Z-151229T1144Z/
/SPCO2.1.ER.151227T0545Z.151228T0600Z.151229T0544Z.NO/
236 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa.
* from this evening to late Monday night, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to have a maximum value of 24.5 
  feet Monday before dawn. The river may crest higher or lower depending on
  where exactly the heaviest rainfall occurs. Continue to monitor 
  later updates to this forecast.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet, moderate flooding affects pasturelands and 
  oil fields between Sapulpa and the Tulsa County line. Barns and 
  other outbuildings experience minor flooding.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3600 9615 3592 9614 3599 9598 3606 9599

$$

OKC143-270435-
/O.CON.KTSA.FL.W.0122.151228T1200Z-151229T0000Z/
/JNKO2.1.ER.151228T1200Z.151228T1200Z.151228T1800Z.NO/
236 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Polecat Creek near Jenks.
* from Monday morning to Monday evening, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  8:33 AM Saturday, the stage was  1.39 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Polecat Creek near Jenks is expected to rise to near
  flood stage Monday morning.The river may crest higher or lower depending on
  where exactly the heaviest rainfall occurs. Continue to monitor 
  later updates to this forecast.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, minor agricultral flooding occurs, primarily 
  west of Jenks.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3606 9607 3597 9607 3597 9591 3606 9591

$$

056 
WGUS44 KTSA 270123
FLWTSA
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
723 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015




  Polecat Creek near Sapulpa affecting Creek County. 
  


  Polecat Creek near Jenks affecting Tulsa County. 
  
OKC037-270923-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0121.151227T0549Z-151229T1146Z/
/SPCO2.1.ER.151227T0549Z.151228T0600Z.151229T0546Z.NO/
723 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa
* from this evening to late Monday night.
* At  5:01 PM Saturday, the stage was 5.00 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa is expected to rise above
  flood stage tonight and continue to rise to near 24.9 feet by 
  Monday before dawn. The river is expected to fall below flood 
  stage late Monday evening.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet, moderate flooding affects pasturelands and 
  oil fields between Sapulpa and the Tulsa County line. Barns and 
  other outbuildings experience minor flooding.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3600 9615 3592 9614 3599 9598 3606 9599

$$

OKC143-270922-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0122.151228T1200Z-151228T1800Z/
/JNKO2.1.ER.151228T1200Z.151228T1200Z.151228T1200Z.NO/
723 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Polecat Creek near Jenks
* from Monday morning to Monday afternoon, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  6:58 PM Saturday, the stage was  3.45 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Polecat Creek near Jenks is expected to rise to near
  flood stage Monday morning.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, minor agricultral flooding occurs, primarily 
  west of Jenks.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3606 9607 3597 9607 3597 9591 3606 9591

$$

727 
WGUS84 KTSA 270724
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
124 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Polecat Creek near Sapulpa affecting Creek County. 
  
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Polecat Creek near Jenks affecting Tulsa County. 
  
OKC037-271524-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0121.000000T0000Z-151229T0643Z/
/SPCO2.1.ER.151227T0944Z.151227T1800Z.151229T0043Z.NO/
124 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa.
* until late Monday night, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:25 AM Sunday, the stage was 16.00 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa is expected to rise above
  flood stage early this morning and continue to rise to near 24.9 
  feet by this afternoon. The river is expected to fall below flood 
  stage Monday evening.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet, moderate flooding affects pasturelands and 
  oil fields between Sapulpa and the Tulsa County line. Barns and 
  other outbuildings experience minor flooding.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3600 9615 3592 9614 3599 9598 3606 9599

$$

OKC143-271524-
/O.CON.KTSA.FL.W.0122.151228T1200Z-151228T1800Z/
/JNKO2.1.ER.151228T1200Z.151228T1200Z.151228T1200Z.NO/
124 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Polecat Creek near Jenks.
* from Monday morning to Monday afternoon, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  1:03 AM Sunday, the stage was  9.26 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Polecat Creek near Jenks is expected to rise to near
  flood stage Monday morning.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, minor agricultral flooding occurs, primarily 
  west of Jenks.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3606 9607 3597 9607 3597 9591 3606 9591

$$

287 
WGUS44 KTSA 271412
FLWTSA
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
812 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015



...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity for the 
following rivers in Oklahoma...

  Polecat Creek near Sapulpa affecting Creek County. 
  
OKC037-272212-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0121.000000T0000Z-151229T1210Z/
/SPCO2.2.ER.151227T0956Z.151228T0000Z.151229T0610Z.NO/
812 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...Observed flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...
...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...
The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa
* until Tuesday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  6:45 AM Sunday, the stage was 25.00 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa will continue rising to 
  near 26.7 feet this evening. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Tuesday before dawn .
* Impact...At 25.0 feet, moderate flooding affects pasturelands and 
  oil fields between Sapulpa and the Tulsa County line. Barns and 
  other outbuildings experience minor flooding.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3600 9615 3592 9614 3599 9598 3606 9599

$$

043 
WGUS84 KTSA 272043
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
243 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Polecat Creek near Sapulpa affecting Creek County. 
  
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Polecat Creek near Jenks affecting Tulsa County. 
  
OKC037-280443-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0121.000000T0000Z-151230T0130Z/
/SPCO2.2.ER.151227T0956Z.151228T0000Z.151229T1930Z.NO/
243 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa.
* until Tuesday evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:45 PM Sunday, the stage was 27.90 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa will continue rising to 
  near 28.5 feet this evening. The river is expected to fall below 
  flood stage early Tuesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet, severe flooding affects pasturelands, oil 
  fields, and county roads between Sapulpa and Jenks. Barns and oil 
  field storage tanks may be flooded. Suburban homes will have water 
  in yards.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3600 9615 3592 9614 3599 9598 3606 9599

$$

OKC143-280443-
/O.CON.KTSA.FL.W.0122.151228T1200Z-151228T1800Z/
/JNKO2.1.ER.151228T1200Z.151228T1200Z.151228T1200Z.NO/
243 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Polecat Creek near Jenks.
* from Monday morning to Monday afternoon, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  1:13 PM Sunday, the stage was 13.98 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Polecat Creek near Jenks is expected to rise to near
  flood stage Monday morning.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, minor agricultral flooding occurs, primarily 
  west of Jenks.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3606 9607 3597 9607 3597 9591 3606 9591

$$

537 
WGUS84 KTSA 280107
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
707 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Polecat Creek near Jenks affecting Tulsa County. 
  
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Polecat Creek near Sapulpa affecting Creek County. 
  
OKC037-280907-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0121.000000T0000Z-151230T0920Z/
/SPCO2.2.ER.151227T0956Z.151227T2341Z.151230T0320Z.NO/
707 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...Flood Warning extended until late Tuesday night...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa.
* until late Tuesday night, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  5:41 PM Sunday, the stage was 28.20 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa will continue falling to 
  below flood stage by late Tuesday evening.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet, severe flooding affects pasturelands, oil 
  fields, and county roads between Sapulpa and Jenks. Barns and oil 
  field storage tanks may be flooded. Suburban homes will have water 
  in yards.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3600 9615 3592 9614 3599 9598 3606 9599

$$

OKC143-280137-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0122.000000T0000Z-151228T1800Z/
/JNKO2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
707 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Polecat Creek near Jenks.
* At  6:58 PM Sunday, the stage was 14.97 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Polecat Creek near Jenks will crest below flood 
  stage at 15.6 feet Monday morning.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, minor agricultral flooding occurs, primarily 
  west of Jenks.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3606 9607 3597 9607 3597 9591 3606 9591

$$

905 
WGUS84 KTSA 280739
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
139 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Polecat Creek near Sapulpa affecting Creek County. 
  
  Bird Creek near Sperry affecting Osage and Tulsa Counties. 
  
  Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo affecting Tulsa County. 
  
  Caney River near Ramona affecting Washington County. 
  
  Caney River near Collinsville affecting Rogers and Tulsa Counties. 
  
  Illinois River near Watts affecting Adair County. 
  
  Illinois River near Tahlequah affecting Cherokee County. 
  
  Flint Creek near Kansas affecting Cherokee and Delaware Counties. 
  
  Baron Fork River at Eldon affecting Cherokee County. 
  
  Arkansas River near Muskogee affecting Muskogee County. 
  
OKC001-281539-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0107.000000T0000Z-151230T0000Z/
/WTTO2.3.ER.151227T0609Z.151228T1200Z.151229T1800Z.NR/
139 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...This is a dangerous and life threatening situation...
 
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Illinois River near Watts.
* until Tuesday evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:00 AM Monday, the stage was 28.52 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Illinois River near Watts will continue rising to 
  near 29.0 feet this morning. The river is expected to fall below 
  flood stage early Tuesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 29.0 feet, disastrous flooding occurs from the Arkansas 
  border to Chewey Bridge. Many permanent campgrounds and cabins are 
  overtopped, particularly in the Fidlers Bend area. River Valley 
  Raceway is inundated by several feet, with water approaching the 
  roof of the permanent building. This exceeds the flood of record of
  28.6 feet that occurred April 26, 2011. This is an extremely 
  dangerous and life threatening situation.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3619 9478 3611 9478 3607 9453 3615 9453

$$

OKC021-281538-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0108.000000T0000Z-151231T0538Z/
/TALO2.3.ER.151227T0551Z.151229T0600Z.151230T2338Z.NR/
139 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...This is a dangerous and life threatening situation...
 
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Illinois River near Tahlequah.
* until Wednesday evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:00 AM Monday, the stage was 24.35 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Illinois River near Tahlequah will continue rising 
  to near 29.0 feet Tuesday before dawn. The river is expected to 
  fall below flood stage Wednesday afternoon.
* Impact...Devastating flooding occurs along the Illinois River from 
  Chewey Bridge to the headwaters of Lake Tenkiller. State Highway 10 
  is closed northeast of its intersection with Highway 51. Many cabin 
  parks are severely flooded or are totally isolated for a long time. 
  This is a dangerous and life-threatening situation.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3604 9498 3573 9498 3573 9487 3617 9472 3617 9485

$$

OKC021-041-281538-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0109.000000T0000Z-151229T0053Z/
/KNSO2.3.ER.151227T0445Z.151228T0430Z.151228T1853Z.NO/
139 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...This is a dangerous and life threatening situation...
 
...Flood Warning extended until this evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Flint Creek near Kansas.
* until this evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:30 AM Monday, the stage was 15.93 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Flint Creek near Kansas will continue falling to 
  below flood stage by this afternoon.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet, severe flooding occurs from Bidlers Bend to 
  Chewey Bridge. Farmland and permanent campgrounds are affected. 
  Several cabins in the Fidlers Bend area are flooded or isolated for
  prolonged periods. This is an extremely dangerous and life 
  threatening situation.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3619 9483 3607 9482 3620 9456 3630 9461

$$

OKC021-281538-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0110.000000T0000Z-151229T0515Z/
/ELDO2.3.ER.151227T1216Z.151228T0330Z.151228T2315Z.NO/
139 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...This is a dangerous and life threatening situation...
 
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Baron Fork River at Eldon.
* until this evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:30 AM Monday, the stage was 24.39 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Baron Fork River at Eldon will continue rising to 
  near 25.0 feet this morning. The river is expected to fall below 
  flood stage late this afternoon.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet, damaging flooding occurs. Significant areas 
  of the Camp Egan campgrounds are flooded, including cabins. This is
  an extremely dangerous and life threatening situation.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3578 9493 3578 9481 3594 9477 3594 9490

$$

OKC101-281538-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0120.000000T0000Z-151229T1545Z/
/MKGO2.2.ER.151227T1457Z.151228T1200Z.151229T0945Z.NO/
139 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River near Muskogee.
* until Tuesday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:00 AM Monday, the stage was 30.95 feet.
* Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Arkansas River near Muskogee will continue rising to
  near 32.0 feet this morning. The river is expected to fall below 
  flood stage early Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 32.0 feet, areas on the grounds of the OG&E power plant 
  are flooded. Moderate agricultural flooding occurs.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3583 9537 3559 9532 3547 9515 3552 9507 3583 9520

$$

OKC037-281538-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0121.000000T0000Z-151230T0936Z/
/SPCO2.2.ER.151227T0956Z.151227T2341Z.151230T0336Z.NO/
139 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...Flood Warning extended until late Tuesday night...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa.
* until late Tuesday night, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:34 AM Monday, the stage was 28.00 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa will continue falling to 
  below flood stage by late Tuesday evening.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet, severe flooding affects pasturelands, oil 
  fields, and county roads between Sapulpa and Jenks. Barns and oil 
  field storage tanks may be flooded. Suburban homes will have water 
  in yards.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3600 9615 3592 9614 3599 9598 3606 9599

$$

OKC113-143-281538-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0123.000000T0000Z-151229T0932Z/
/SPEO2.2.ER.151227T0830Z.151228T0400Z.151229T0332Z.NO/
139 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Sperry.
* until late tonight, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:00 AM Monday, the stage was 26.87 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Sperry will continue falling to 
  below flood stage by tonight.
* Impact...At 27.0 feet, extensive flooding occurs. Lower urban areas 
  in east Skiatook begin to flood. Highway 20 east of Skiatook is 
  closed. Some roads between Turley and north Tulsa may be blocked.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3640 9605 3620 9598 3620 9590 3640 9593

$$

OKC143-281538-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0124.000000T0000Z-151229T1600Z/
/OWSO2.2.ER.151227T0850Z.151228T1200Z.151229T1000Z.NO/
139 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo.
* until Tuesday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:00 AM Monday, the stage was 22.91 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo will continue rising to
  near 23.7 feet this morning. The river is expected to fall below 
  flood stage early Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet, serious overflows along Bird Creek reach into
  suburban areas south of Owasso. Mingo Road and several roads 
  southwest of Owasso and in the Mohawk Park area are closed. Flood 
  waters will threaten the Oxley Nature Center. This is a dangerous 
  situation.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3627 9594 3618 9594 3618 9570 3627 9570

$$

OKC147-281538-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0125.000000T0000Z-151229T1715Z/
/RAMO2.1.ER.151227T1518Z.151228T1200Z.151229T1115Z.NO/
139 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Caney River near Ramona.
* until Tuesday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:00 AM Monday, the stage was 27.49 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Caney River near Ramona will continue rising to near
  27.6 feet this morning. The river is expected to fall below flood 
  stage early Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs from 
  Ochelata to the northeastern tip of Tulsa County. Some rural roads 
  are impassable including the road between Ramona and Talala.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3664 9593 3647 9593 3637 9584 3637 9576 3664 9580

$$

OKC131-143-281538-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0126.000000T0000Z-151230T1914Z/
/CVLO2.2.ER.151227T0746Z.151229T0000Z.151230T1314Z.NO/
139 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Caney River near Collinsville.
* until Wednesday afternoon, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:30 AM Monday, the stage was 31.48 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Caney River near Collinsville will continue rising 
  to near 32.0 feet this evening. The river is expected to fall below
  flood stage Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 32.0 feet, considerable farmland is flooded. County 
  roads near the river become impassable.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3635 9588 3630 9570 3636 9564 3643 9580

$$

Lacy

764 
WGUS84 KTSA 281348
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
748 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Polecat Creek near Sapulpa affecting Creek County. 
  
OKC037-282148-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0121.000000T0000Z-151230T1830Z/
/SPCO2.2.ER.151227T0956Z.151227T2341Z.151230T1230Z.NO/
748 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa.
* until Wednesday afternoon, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:34 AM Monday, the stage was 28.00 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa will continue falling to 
  below flood stage by Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet, severe flooding affects pasturelands, oil 
  fields, and county roads between Sapulpa and Jenks. Barns and oil 
  field storage tanks may be flooded. Suburban homes will have water 
  in yards.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3600 9615 3592 9614 3599 9598 3606 9599

$$

074 
WGUS84 KTSA 281919
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
119 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Polecat Creek near Sapulpa affecting Creek County. 
  
OKC037-290319-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0121.000000T0000Z-151231T0135Z/
/SPCO2.2.ER.151227T0956Z.151227T2341Z.151230T1935Z.NO/
119 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa.
* until Wednesday evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:54 PM Monday, the stage was 26.60 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa will continue falling to 
  below flood stage by early Wednesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet, moderate flooding affects pasturelands and 
  suburban roads between Sapulpa and Jenks. Livestock barns and other
  outbuildings are flooded.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3600 9615 3592 9614 3599 9598 3606 9599

$$

OKC143-290318-
/O.ROU.KTSA.HY.S.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/JNKO2.N.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
119 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

Forecast information for
  Polecat Creek near Jenks.
* At 11:28 AM Monday, the stage was 16.53 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to near 16.7 feet early this evening
  and remain just below flood stage.

 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3606 9607 3597 9607 3597 9591 3606 9591

$$

071 
WGUS84 KTSA 290054
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
654 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Polecat Creek near Sapulpa affecting Creek County. 
  
OKC037-290854-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0121.000000T0000Z-151230T0515Z/
/SPCO2.2.ER.151227T0956Z.151227T2341Z.151229T2315Z.NO/
654 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa.
* until Tuesday evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:54 PM Monday, the stage was 26.60 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa will continue falling to 
  below flood stage by Tuesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet, moderate flooding affects pasturelands and 
  suburban roads between Sapulpa and Jenks. Livestock barns and other
  outbuildings are flooded.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3600 9615 3592 9614 3599 9598 3606 9599

$$

925 
WGUS84 KTSA 290824
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
224 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Polecat Creek near Sapulpa affecting Creek County. 
  
OKC037-291624-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0121.000000T0000Z-151230T0815Z/
/SPCO2.2.ER.151227T0956Z.151227T2341Z.151230T0215Z.NO/
224 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

...Flood Warning extended until late tonight...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa.
* until late tonight, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9:48 PM Monday, the stage was 25.80 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa will continue falling to 
  below flood stage by this evening.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet, moderate flooding affects pasturelands and 
  suburban roads between Sapulpa and Jenks. Livestock barns and other
  outbuildings are flooded.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3600 9615 3592 9614 3599 9598 3606 9599

$$

300 
WGUS84 KTSA 291248
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
648 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Polecat Creek near Sapulpa affecting Creek County. 
  
OKC037-292048-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0121.000000T0000Z-151230T1200Z/
/SPCO2.2.ER.151227T0956Z.151227T2341Z.151230T0600Z.NO/
648 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa.
* until Wednesday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9:48 PM Monday, the stage was 25.80 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa will continue falling to 
  below flood stage by Wednesday before dawn.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet, moderate flooding affects pasturelands and 
  suburban roads between Sapulpa and Jenks. Livestock barns and other
  outbuildings are flooded.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3600 9615 3592 9614 3599 9598 3606 9599

$$

920 
WGUS84 KTSA 291916
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
116 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo affecting Tulsa County. 
  
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Caney River near Collinsville affecting Rogers and Tulsa Counties. 

  Polecat Creek near Sapulpa affecting Creek County. 
  
OKC037-300316-
/O.CON.KTSA.FL.W.0121.000000T0000Z-151230T1200Z/
/SPCO2.2.ER.151227T0956Z.151227T2341Z.151230T0600Z.NO/
116 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa.
* until Wednesday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1 PM Tuesday, the stage was estimated at 22.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa will continue falling to 
  below flood stage by Wednesday before dawn.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet, minor flooding of pasturelands and oil 
  fields occurs..
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3600 9615 3592 9614 3599 9598 3606 9599

$$

OKC131-143-300315-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0126.000000T0000Z-151230T1731Z/
/CVLO2.2.ER.151227T0746Z.151229T0500Z.151230T1131Z.NO/
116 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Caney River near Collinsville.
* until Wednesday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:30 PM Tuesday, the stage was 31.35 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Caney River near Collinsville will continue falling 
  to below flood stage by early Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 31.0 feet, widespread moderate flooding occurs. Rural 
  roads near the Caney River become impassable.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3635 9588 3630 9570 3636 9564 3643 9580

$$

OKC143-291946-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0124.000000T0000Z-151230T0016Z/
/OWSO2.2.ER.151227T0850Z.151228T2330Z.151229T1624Z.NO/
116 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo.
* At 12:00 PM Tuesday, the stage was 16.51 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage late this morning.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo will continue falling 
  and remain below flood stage.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3627 9594 3618 9594 3618 9570 3627 9570

$$

108 
WGUS84 KTSA 300237
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
837 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Polecat Creek near Sapulpa affecting Creek County. 
  
OKC037-301037-
/O.CON.KTSA.FL.W.0121.000000T0000Z-151230T1700Z/
/SPCO2.2.ER.151227T0956Z.151227T2341Z.151230T0600Z.NO/
837 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa.
* until Wednesday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:00 PM Monday, the estimated stage was 21.60 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa will continue falling to 
  below flood stage by Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet, moderate flooding affects pasturelands and 
  suburban roads between Sapulpa and Jenks. Livestock barns and other
  outbuildings are flooded.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3600 9615 3592 9614 3599 9598 3606 9599

$$

880 
WGUS84 KTSA 300733
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
133 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Polecat Creek near Sapulpa affecting Creek County. 
  
OKC037-301425-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0121.000000T0000Z-151230T1425Z/
/SPCO2.2.ER.151227T0956Z.151227T2341Z.151230T0825Z.NO/
133 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa.
* until this morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9:48 PM Monday, the stage was 25.80 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa will continue falling to 
  below flood stage by before dawn .
* Impact...At 26.0 feet, moderate flooding affects pasturelands and 
  suburban roads between Sapulpa and Jenks. Livestock barns and other
  outbuildings are flooded.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3600 9615 3592 9614 3599 9598 3606 9599

$$

214 
WGUS84 KTSA 301304
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
704 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Polecat Creek near Sapulpa affecting Creek County. 
  
OKC037-301334-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0121.000000T0000Z-151230T1621Z/
/SPCO2.2.ER.151227T0956Z.151227T2341Z.151230T1021Z.NO/
704 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa.
* At  6:00 AM Wednesday, the estimated stage was 20.80 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa will continue falling
  today.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet, minor agricultural flooding occurs.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3600 9615 3592 9614 3599 9598 3606 9599

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Dec 26, 5:52 AM CST, 4 hours 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 26, 5:52 AM CST, 4 hours 22 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
552 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The 12z TAF discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Widespread and persistent IFR or below cigs forecast thru the TAF
period in a saturated boundary layer. Sct storms will affect the
TAF sites as well. Cold front will bring a wind shift by this
evening across E OK and NW AR...with gusts abv 30 kts at the NE OK
sites.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Per latest water vapor imagery...a longwave trof continued to dig
southeastward through the desert Southwest United States early
this morning. Ahead of this system...fast moving south-
southwesterly upper level flow continued to transport ample
amounts of moisture into the Southern Plains...fueling the
atmosphere for the expected widespread rainfall across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Showers along with a few
thunderstorms have already begun to develop over the CWA as a warm
front tracts northward through the Southern Plains.

Rain showers along with thunderstorm chances will continue to
spread in coverage across the CWA this morning...becoming
widespread this afternoon as a strong cold front moves into the
region from the west. Ahead of this frontal boundary...increasing
instability...above seasonal average moisture...deep layer shear
and steep lapse rates will create the potential for severe
thunderstorms with the potential for large hail...damaging winds
and also a tornado threat. The greater severe potential looks to
be this afternoon through this evening across Southeast Oklahoma
into East Central Oklahoma and also Western Arkansas. Along with
the severe potential...widespread rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches with locally higher amounts are forecast through tonight
over much of the CWA. This will allow for flash flooding and also
significant river flooding to develop across the region. A flash
flood watch remains in effect for all but the far northwest corner
of the CWA through Sunday night.

The cold front is expected to push into Eastern Oklahoma late this
afternoon and could potentially get hung up over Southeast
Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas overnight tonight. With the front
holding over the region...this will allow for thunderstorm
potential to remain over Southeast Oklahoma into Western Arkansas
into Sunday. Behind the front...widespread rain showers are
forecast to remain over the CWA through Sunday night as upper
level southerly flow continues to pump unseasonably moist air
over the region. Additional rainfall amounts Sunday again in the 3
to 5+ inch range will be possible over much of Eastern Oklahoma
and Northwest Arkansas. These rains on top of saturated soils by
Sunday will enhance runoff potential and increase dangerous
flooding conditions for the CWA. Some mainstem rivers currently
look to respond with forecasts of moderate to major flooding. A
few locations could even potentially reach near flood of record.

Also behind the front...strong gusty northerly winds and much
cooler temperatures are forecast. Wind gusts of 25 to near 40 mph
will be possible over parts of Eastern Oklahoma. Temperature
profiles tonight into Sunday continue to suggest that surface
temperatures remain above freezing throughout the CWA...thus
keeping any winter potential to the west/northwest through Sunday
afternoon. Temps of mid 30s to upper 40s are forecast behind the
front Sunday. Overnight sunday night into Monday morning...as the
upper low approaches and the frontal boundary gets a push off to
the east...some colder air could potential reach parts
Osage/Pawnee counties in Northeast Oklahoma. Thus...will keep a
mention of a wintry mix of precip...transitioning to light snow
Sunday night into Monday for these locations. With some
uncertainty with the exact track of the upper low...a shift east
or west could greatly affect locations for wintry weather...will
keep any accumulations light at this time for Western Osage
county.

Latest model solutions indicate the upper low lifting through
Eastern Oklahoma Monday and race northeast into the Midwest by
Monday evening. As the low lifts into the region...depending on
the exact track the low takes could allow for a forecast dry slot
to move over parts of the region...shutting off the water works of
rainfall Monday afternoon. Overall the precip should taper off
from south to north by Monday evening.

In the extended forecast for the upcoming week...a quick moving
wave looks to push across the Plains Tuesday night and Wednesday
which could bring a small chance for light snow/wintry mix to the
CWA. A lack of moisture over the region should keep any potential
accumulations light. In the wake of this system...temperatures
look to remain near/below the seasonal average for the last week
of the year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  38  42  36 / 100 100 100 100
FSM   71  57  59  43 / 100 100 100 100
MLC   72  45  48  38 / 100 100 100 100
BVO   61  36  38  35 / 100 100 100 100
FYV   67  46  49  42 / 100 100 100 100
BYV   67  45  47  41 / 100 100 100 100
MKO   68  44  47  39 / 100 100 100 100
MIO   64  37  41  37 / 100 100 100 100
F10   67  41  44  37 / 100 100  90 100
HHW   74  58  63  39 /  90 100 100 100

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for OKZ049-053-
     055>058-060>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

AVIATION...30

Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 26, 5:48 AM CST, 4 hours 26 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
548 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271200-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
548 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
ELEVATED SEVERE RISK THIS WEEKEND...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MIDDAY.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
	ONSET...MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
	ONSET...MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 6 PM.

DISCUSSION...

A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
RIVER FLOODING EVENT IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD 4 TO 11
INCH RAINS ARE FORECAST...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH WILL BE RUNOFF
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR THIS IS OCCURRING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
STORM AND COLD FRONT WILL ACT TO LIFT AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST
AIRMASS TO BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

AN ELEVATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND RISK EXISTS MAINLY FROM
THE MIDDAY HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. A
LIMITED TORNADO RISK EXISTS AS WELL. THE AREA AT GREATEST RISK
WILL BE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN AN
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL IN A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL BRING GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND
			POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY...AS THE THUNDER
CHANCES WANE WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT LIFTS DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...TEMPS WILL LIKELY GET COLD ENOUGH OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES TO ALLOW FOR SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT SOME LIGHT ICING AND
1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THERE. CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES TO
THIS FORECAST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT...LIKELY LESS THAN AN
INCH.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND FIRST RESPONDERS NEED TO BE MINDFUL OF THE
FLOOD THREAT THIS WEEKEND. MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL
FLOOD...SOME MAJOR OR EVEN RECORD...AND SOME WATER RESCUES MAY BE
REQUIRED. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

LACY

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Dec 25, 9:04 PM CST	River Flood Warning	TSA	Okmulgee	9 days
Dec 25, 9:08 PM CST	River Flood Warning	TSA	Ottawa	5 days
Dec 25, 9:08 PM CST	River Flood Warning	TSA	Ottawa	6 days
Dec 25, 9:18 PM CST	River Flood Warning	TSA	Adair	4 days
Dec 25, 9:18 PM CST	River Flood Warning	TSA	Cherokee	5 days
Dec 25, 9:18 PM CST	River Flood Warning	TSA	Cherokee, Delaware	64 hr
Dec 25, 9:18 PM CST	River Flood Warning	TSA	Cherokee	64 hr
Dec 25, 9:36 PM CST	River Flood Warning	TSA	Pushmataha	6 days
Dec 25, 9:36 PM CST	River Flood Warning	TSA	Choctaw	4 days
Dec 25, 10:40 PM CST	River Flood Warning	TSA	Sequoyah	8 days
Dec 25, 10:46 PM CST	River Flood Warning	TSA	LeFlore	9 days
Dec 25, 10:46 PM CST	River Flood Warning	TSA	LeFlore	10 days
Dec 26, 10:14 AM CST	River Flood Warning	TSA	Muskogee	6 days
Dec 26, 10:14 AM CST	River Flood Warning	TSA	Tulsa	56 hr
Dec 26, 10:17 AM CST	River Flood Warning	TSA	Osage, Tulsa	4 days
Dec 26, 10:17 AM CST	River Flood Warning	TSA	Tulsa	4 days
Dec 26, 10:19 AM CST	River Flood Warning	TSA	Washington	3 days
Dec 26, 10:19 AM CST	River Flood Warning	TSA	Rogers, Tulsa	5 days
Dec 26, 1:03 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okmulgee, Tulsa, Wagoner	42 min
Dec 26, 2:34 PM CST	River Flood Warning	TSA	Osage	52 hr
Dec 26, 2:41 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okfuskee	49 min
Dec 26, 3:03 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Haskell, Sequoyah	42 min
Dec 26, 3:13 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Tulsa	47 min
Dec 26, 3:15 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pittsburg	45 min
Dec 26, 3:27 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Delaware	33 min
Dec 26, 3:47 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Mayes, Rogers	43 min
Dec 26, 3:59 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Mayes, Rogers	46 min
Dec 26, 4:06 PM CST	Tornado Warning	TSA	McIntosh, Muskogee, Pittsburg	39 min
Dec 26, 4:08 PM CST	Areal Flood Warning	TSA	Cherokee, Craig, Creek, Delaware, McIntosh, Mayes and 11 more	12 hr
Dec 26, 4:49 PM CST	Tornado Warning	TSA	Cherokee, Muskogee, Wagoner	41 min
Dec 26, 4:53 PM CST	Tornado Warning	TSA	Pittsburg	39 min
Dec 26, 4:57 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Delaware	33 min
Dec 26, 5:10 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Okmulgee	6 hr
Dec 26, 5:24 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	McIntosh, Muskogee	51 min
Dec 26, 5:30 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	McIntosh	45 min
Dec 26, 5:42 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Delaware	48 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Oklahoma, 2015 Every river flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.