Alert archive / Iowa / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 534

November 11, 201547 counties in Iowa; 6 counties in Kansas; 30 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 11, 2015, 11:25 AM CST for 47 counties in Iowa; 6 counties in Kansas; 30 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 11, 2015, 11:25 AM CST (17:25 UTC)
Expired
Nov 11, 2015, 5:41 PM CST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 83 counties

Adair County, IA, Adams County, IA, Appanoose County, IA, Audubon County, IA, Black Hawk County, IA, Boone County, IA, Bremer County, IA, Butler County, IA, Calhoun County, IA, Carroll County, IA, Cass County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Crawford County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Davis County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Fremont County, IA, Greene County, IA, Grundy County, IA, Guthrie County, IA, Hamilton County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Harrison County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Madison County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Mills County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, Page County, IA, Polk County, IA, Pottawattamie County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Sac County, IA, Shelby County, IA, Story County, IA, Tama County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Union County, IA, Wapello County, IA, Warren County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Webster County, IA, Atchison County, KS, Brown County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Adair County, MO, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Platte County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Worth County, MO

The radar

The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
60%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

47 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 11, 1:07 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXCalhoun, Carroll, Sac23 min
Nov 11, 1:43 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXMontgomery, Pottawattamie20 min
Nov 11, 1:48 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXCass30 min
Nov 11, 1:51 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXCalhoun, Pocahontas39 min
Nov 11, 1:54 PM CSTTornado WarningOAXPottawattamie, Shelby18 min
Nov 11, 2:01 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXAdair, Adams, Cass44 min
Nov 11, 2:02 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXCaldwell, Daviess, Grundy, Harrison, Livingston, Mercer and 2 more43 min
Nov 11, 2:08 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXShelby20 min
Nov 11, 2:10 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXRinggold, Taylor, Union35 min
Nov 11, 2:11 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXCaldwell, Carroll, Livingston, Ray34 min
Nov 11, 2:12 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXAdair, Audubon, Cass, Guthrie48 min
Nov 11, 2:17 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXHarrison, Mercer28 min
Nov 11, 2:23 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXClarke, Decatur, Ringgold, Union37 min
Nov 11, 2:28 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXCarroll, Crawford47 min
Nov 11, 2:30 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXAdair, Adams, Clarke, Madison, Union, Warren45 min
Nov 11, 2:30 PM CSTTornado WarningEAXMercer, Putnam30 min
Nov 11, 2:31 PM CSTTornado WarningDMXCarroll29 min
Nov 11, 2:39 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXDecatur, Wayne36 min
Nov 11, 2:39 PM CSTTornado WarningDMXClarke, Decatur, Ringgold21 min
Nov 11, 2:43 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXCarroll, Chariton, Grundy, Linn, Livingston, Mercer and 2 more47 min
Nov 11, 2:44 PM CSTTornado WarningDMXWayne46 min
Nov 11, 2:46 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXBoone, Dallas, Greene, Guthrie, Madison44 min
Nov 11, 2:54 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXCalhoun, Sac, Webster51 min
Nov 11, 2:55 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXClarke, Lucas, Warren, Wayne50 min
Nov 11, 2:59 PM CSTTornado WarningDMXDallas, Madison16 min
Nov 11, 3:00 PM CSTTornado WarningDMXGreene, Guthrie30 min
Nov 11, 3:04 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedDMXMadison, Warren26 min
Nov 11, 3:07 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXBoone, Dallas, Polk, Story, Warren53 min
Nov 11, 3:09 PM CSTTornado WarningDMXBoone, Dallas25 min
Nov 11, 3:18 PM CSTTornado WarningDMXAppanoose, Lucas, Monroe, Wayne27 min
Nov 11, 3:23 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXAdair, Chariton, Linn, Macon, Putnam, Randolph and 2 more82 min
Nov 11, 3:26 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXChariton, Cooper, Howard, Pettis, Randolph, Saline79 min
Nov 11, 3:27 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXJasper, Marion48 min
Nov 11, 3:27 PM CSTTornado WarningDMXAppanoose, Monroe, Wapello33 min
Nov 11, 3:31 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXAppanoose34 min
Nov 11, 3:44 PM CSTTornado WarningDMXJasper31 min
Nov 11, 3:47 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXMahaska, Monroe, Wapello43 min
Nov 11, 3:52 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXHamilton, Hardin, Jasper, Marshall, Polk, Story and 1 more53 min
Nov 11, 3:52 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXDavis, Wapello38 min
Nov 11, 3:56 PM CSTTornado WarningDMXJasper, Mahaska, Marion, Poweshiek41 min
Nov 11, 4:03 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXJasper, Mahaska, Marion, Marshall, Poweshiek, Tama57 min
Nov 11, 4:10 PM CSTTornado WarningDMXMahaska20 min
Nov 11, 4:12 PM CSTTornado WarningDMXMarshall, Tama18 min
Nov 11, 4:23 PM CSTTornado WarningDMXMahaska, Poweshiek37 min
Nov 11, 4:30 PM CSTTornado WarningDMXGrundy, Marshall, Tama30 min
Nov 11, 4:39 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXBlack Hawk, Grundy, Tama51 min
Nov 11, 5:02 PM CSTTornado WarningDMXBlack Hawk23 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 12:00Z, 5.4 hours before the alert went out and 157 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2015-11-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2015-11-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 140 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
832 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
68 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
140 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
181 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

508 
WWUS20 KWNS 111723
SEL4  
SPC WW 111723
IAZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-120000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 534
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL IOWA
  EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS
  NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
  EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1120 AM UNTIL
  600 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS AND SPREAD QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI.  A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER AND FARTHER EAST
AS STORMS MERGE INTO MORE OF A LINE.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
DENISON IOWA TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CHILLICOTHE MISSOURI.
 FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.


...THOMPSON

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 11, 10:17 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Appanoose, Audubon, Benton, Black Hawk and 54 more118 min
Nov 11, 12:38 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrawford, Harrison67 min
Nov 11, 1:42 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Appanoose, Audubon, Boone, Carroll and 24 more93 min
Nov 11, 2:24 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Cedar, Clinton, Des Moines, Henry, Iowa and 10 more2 hr
Nov 11, 3:20 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBenton, Buchanan, Cedar, Clinton, Delaware, Des Moines and 15 more6 hr
Nov 11, 4:59 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Clayton91 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Iowa, 2015Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2015Tornado Watches in Kansas, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.