Alert archive / Iowa / Tornado Watches in 2015
Tornado Watch 534
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 11, 2015, 11:25 AM CST for 47 counties in Iowa; 6 counties in Kansas; 30 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 11, 2015, 11:25 AM CST (17:25 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 11, 2015, 5:41 PM CST
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 83 counties
Adair County, IA, Adams County, IA, Appanoose County, IA, Audubon County, IA, Black Hawk County, IA, Boone County, IA, Bremer County, IA, Butler County, IA, Calhoun County, IA, Carroll County, IA, Cass County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Crawford County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Davis County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Fremont County, IA, Greene County, IA, Grundy County, IA, Guthrie County, IA, Hamilton County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Harrison County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Madison County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Mills County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, Page County, IA, Polk County, IA, Pottawattamie County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Sac County, IA, Shelby County, IA, Story County, IA, Tama County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Union County, IA, Wapello County, IA, Warren County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Webster County, IA, Atchison County, KS, Brown County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Adair County, MO, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Platte County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Worth County, MO
The radar
The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 60%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 60%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 20%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 30%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 10%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 60%
Warnings issued inside it
47 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 1:07 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DMX | Calhoun, Carroll, Sac | 23 min |
| Nov 11, 1:43 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | OAX | Montgomery, Pottawattamie | 20 min |
| Nov 11, 1:48 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DMX | Cass | 30 min |
| Nov 11, 1:51 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DMX | Calhoun, Pocahontas | 39 min |
| Nov 11, 1:54 PM CST | Tornado Warning | OAX | Pottawattamie, Shelby | 18 min |
| Nov 11, 2:01 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DMX | Adair, Adams, Cass | 44 min |
| Nov 11, 2:02 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Caldwell, Daviess, Grundy, Harrison, Livingston, Mercer and 2 more | 43 min |
| Nov 11, 2:08 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | OAX | Shelby | 20 min |
| Nov 11, 2:10 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DMX | Ringgold, Taylor, Union | 35 min |
| Nov 11, 2:11 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Caldwell, Carroll, Livingston, Ray | 34 min |
| Nov 11, 2:12 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DMX | Adair, Audubon, Cass, Guthrie | 48 min |
| Nov 11, 2:17 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Harrison, Mercer | 28 min |
| Nov 11, 2:23 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DMX | Clarke, Decatur, Ringgold, Union | 37 min |
| Nov 11, 2:28 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DMX | Carroll, Crawford | 47 min |
| Nov 11, 2:30 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DMX | Adair, Adams, Clarke, Madison, Union, Warren | 45 min |
| Nov 11, 2:30 PM CST | Tornado Warning | EAX | Mercer, Putnam | 30 min |
| Nov 11, 2:31 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DMX | Carroll | 29 min |
| Nov 11, 2:39 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DMX | Decatur, Wayne | 36 min |
| Nov 11, 2:39 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DMX | Clarke, Decatur, Ringgold | 21 min |
| Nov 11, 2:43 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Carroll, Chariton, Grundy, Linn, Livingston, Mercer and 2 more | 47 min |
| Nov 11, 2:44 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DMX | Wayne | 46 min |
| Nov 11, 2:46 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DMX | Boone, Dallas, Greene, Guthrie, Madison | 44 min |
| Nov 11, 2:54 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DMX | Calhoun, Sac, Webster | 51 min |
| Nov 11, 2:55 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DMX | Clarke, Lucas, Warren, Wayne | 50 min |
| Nov 11, 2:59 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DMX | Dallas, Madison | 16 min |
| Nov 11, 3:00 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DMX | Greene, Guthrie | 30 min |
| Nov 11, 3:04 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DMX | Madison, Warren | 26 min |
| Nov 11, 3:07 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DMX | Boone, Dallas, Polk, Story, Warren | 53 min |
| Nov 11, 3:09 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DMX | Boone, Dallas | 25 min |
| Nov 11, 3:18 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DMX | Appanoose, Lucas, Monroe, Wayne | 27 min |
| Nov 11, 3:23 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Adair, Chariton, Linn, Macon, Putnam, Randolph and 2 more | 82 min |
| Nov 11, 3:26 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Chariton, Cooper, Howard, Pettis, Randolph, Saline | 79 min |
| Nov 11, 3:27 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DMX | Jasper, Marion | 48 min |
| Nov 11, 3:27 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DMX | Appanoose, Monroe, Wapello | 33 min |
| Nov 11, 3:31 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DMX | Appanoose | 34 min |
| Nov 11, 3:44 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DMX | Jasper | 31 min |
| Nov 11, 3:47 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DMX | Mahaska, Monroe, Wapello | 43 min |
| Nov 11, 3:52 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DMX | Hamilton, Hardin, Jasper, Marshall, Polk, Story and 1 more | 53 min |
| Nov 11, 3:52 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DMX | Davis, Wapello | 38 min |
| Nov 11, 3:56 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DMX | Jasper, Mahaska, Marion, Poweshiek | 41 min |
| Nov 11, 4:03 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DMX | Jasper, Mahaska, Marion, Marshall, Poweshiek, Tama | 57 min |
| Nov 11, 4:10 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DMX | Mahaska | 20 min |
| Nov 11, 4:12 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DMX | Marshall, Tama | 18 min |
| Nov 11, 4:23 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DMX | Mahaska, Poweshiek | 37 min |
| Nov 11, 4:30 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DMX | Grundy, Marshall, Tama | 30 min |
| Nov 11, 4:39 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DMX | Black Hawk, Grundy, Tama | 51 min |
| Nov 11, 5:02 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DMX | Black Hawk | 23 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 12:00Z, 5.4 hours before the alert went out and 157 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 832 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 68 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 140 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 181 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
508 WWUS20 KWNS 111723 SEL4 SPC WW 111723 IAZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-120000- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 534 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL IOWA EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1120 AM UNTIL 600 PM CST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS AND SPREAD QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER AND FARTHER EAST AS STORMS MERGE INTO MORE OF A LINE. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF DENISON IOWA TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CHILLICOTHE MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045. ...THOMPSON
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 10:17 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Adams, Appanoose, Audubon, Benton, Black Hawk and 54 more | 118 min |
| Nov 11, 12:38 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crawford, Harrison | 67 min |
| Nov 11, 1:42 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Adams, Appanoose, Audubon, Boone, Carroll and 24 more | 93 min |
| Nov 11, 2:24 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Cedar, Clinton, Des Moines, Henry, Iowa and 10 more | 2 hr |
| Nov 11, 3:20 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Benton, Buchanan, Cedar, Clinton, Delaware, Des Moines and 15 more | 6 hr |
| Nov 11, 4:59 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allamakee, Clayton | 91 min |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Iowa, 2015Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2015Tornado Watches in Kansas, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.