Alert archive / Illinois / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 535

November 11, 201529 counties in Illinois; 21 counties in Iowa; 14 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 11, 2015, 3:20 PM CST for 29 counties in Illinois; 21 counties in Iowa; 14 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 11, 2015, 3:20 PM CST (21:20 UTC)
Expired
Nov 11, 2015, 9:00 PM CST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 64 counties

Benton County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Delaware County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Dubuque County, IA, Henry County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Lee County, IA, Linn County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Scott County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Washington County, IA, Adams County, IL, Brown County, IL, Bureau County, IL, Carroll County, IL, Cass County, IL, Fulton County, IL, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Henry County, IL, Jo Daviess County, IL, Knox County, IL, Marshall County, IL, Mason County, IL, McDonough County, IL, McLean County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Pike County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Schuyler County, IL, Scott County, IL, Stark County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Warren County, IL, Whiteside County, IL, Woodford County, IL, Audrain County, MO, Boone County, MO, Callaway County, MO, Clark County, MO, Cole County, MO, Knox County, MO, Lewis County, MO, Marion County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Monroe County, MO, Pike County, MO, Ralls County, MO, Scotland County, MO, Shelby County, MO

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

18 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 11, 3:55 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNJefferson, Keokuk, Van Buren, Washington65 min
Nov 11, 3:59 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXKnox, Lewis, Marion, Monroe, Shelby61 min
Nov 11, 4:16 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNBenton, Iowa59 min
Nov 11, 4:17 PM CSTTornado WarningDVNIowa, Keokuk43 min
Nov 11, 4:44 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNHenry, Jefferson, Johnson, Linn, Louisa, Washington61 min
Nov 11, 4:52 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNHancock53 min
Nov 11, 4:52 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXAdams38 min
Nov 11, 5:05 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXAdams, Pike40 min
Nov 11, 5:07 PM CSTTornado WarningDVNJohnson, Linn18 min
Nov 11, 5:20 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNMercer, Rock Island55 min
Nov 11, 5:28 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNHancock, Henderson, McDonough, Mercer, Warren62 min
Nov 11, 5:47 PM CSTTornado WarningDVNCedar, Jones14 min
Nov 11, 5:55 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNDelaware, Dubuque, Jackson, Jones49 min
Nov 11, 6:01 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXFulton, Knox, Peoria, Stark59 min
Nov 11, 6:54 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXFulton, Knox, Marshall, Mason, Peoria, Stark and 2 more66 min
Nov 11, 6:56 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNBureau, Henry, Putnam, Whiteside64 min
Nov 11, 6:58 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNCarroll, Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Whiteside52 min
Nov 11, 7:45 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXMcLean, Marshall, Tazewell, Woodford45 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 9.3 hours before the alert went out and 115 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2015-11-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2015-11-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 101 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1035 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
101 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
238 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 11, 2:24 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Brown, Cass, Fulton, Greene, Hancock and 12 more2 hr
Nov 11, 5:46 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Bureau, Carroll, DeKalb, DeWitt, Ford and 14 more59 min
Nov 11, 10:17 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Appanoose, Audubon, Benton, Black Hawk and 54 more118 min
Nov 11, 11:25 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCAdair, Adams, Appanoose, Audubon, Black Hawk, Boone and 41 more6 hr
Nov 11, 12:38 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrawford, Harrison67 min
Nov 11, 1:42 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Appanoose, Audubon, Boone, Carroll and 24 more93 min
Nov 11, 4:59 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Clayton91 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Illinois, 2015Tornado Watches in Iowa, 2015Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.