Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
612 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

Powerful November storm system is taking aim on central Illinois
this evening, with 20z/2pm surface chart showing a 991mb low over
southwest Iowa.  Strong to severe thunderstorms are currently
developing in the vicinity of the low and arcing southward along a
trailing cold front into north-central Missouri.  Further
south...another area of showers/storms is developing in association
with the warm conveyor belt across the Ozarks.  As the low continues
to deepen and lift toward western Wisconsin, the storms currently
across northern Missouri will shift eastward into west-central
Illinois early this evening. Based on radar timing tools and
consistent forecasts from both the HRRR and 4km NAM, it appears
convection will arrive in the Illinois River Valley between 6pm and
8pm, along the I-55 corridor between 7pm and 9pm, and further east
to the I-57 corridor between 9pm and midnight.  Damaging wind gusts
will be the primary severe weather threat across the western KILX
CWA early this evening, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out due to impressive amounts of low-level wind shear.  As the
storms race E/NE, the severe wind threat will decrease east of the I-
55 corridor by mid to late evening as the storms tend to weaken with
time.  Once the storms pass, very strong gradient winds will develop
as low pressure continues to deepen over Wisconsin.  Westerly winds
will increase to between 20 and 30 mph overnight, with gusts
reaching the 40 to 50 mph range.  As a result, a Wind Advisory will
remain in effect for all locations along/north of I-70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

The intense storm system (987 mb) is expected to be over central
thru northeast Wisconsin by Thursday morning with a very tight
pressure gradient across a large portion of the region. Forecast
soundings suggest the potential for 25 to 35 mph sustained winds
with gusts around 50 mph at times into the afternoon hours before we
see a very slow diminishing trend towards evening. With the surface
low pulling away from the area rather quickly, the wrap-around
moisture is expected to lift northeast as well and shift into far
northern IL or southern Wisconsin by evening. A secondary upper
trof will swing southeast across the lower Great Lakes Thursday
night and Friday with gusty winds expected with that system as well,
although not as strong as what we will see tonight and Thursday.

The weather should quiet down for Friday night through the weekend
as high pressure settles across the area. We should start out on
the cool side early in the weekend but as the high shifts off to
our east on Sunday, southerly winds will bring in milder air for
Sunday afternoon. However, it doesn't look like the nice weather
will hold very long over our area as an active southwest flow
pattern continues into next week with the first of two significant
systems that will affect the Midwest. Showers chances increase
somewhat late Sunday night into Monday, and especially Monday night
into Tuesday as the upper wave tracks across the region.
Unfortunately, the upper wave and associated surface low will not be
a quick mover and will have ample opportunity to bring up some
significant rainfall to our area early next week with POPs in the
forecast through Thursday. The pattern will hold thru the rest of the
week with the latest ECMWF indicating another strong upper level system
poised over the southwest U.S. ready to spread precip back into our area
either late next week or during the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

Line of convection continues to track northeastward out of
Missouri into west-central Illinois early this evening. Southern
end of line is not very organized and is showing signs of
weakening, which matches the forecasts from both the HRRR and 4km
NAM quite well. Given current radar trends, think the line of
strong to severe storms may only impact KPIA and perhaps KBMI.
Timing tools still support 01z to 03z at KPIA and 02z to 04z for
KBMI. Further southeast, showers with a few embedded thunderstorms
have lifted northward from southern Illinois and will impact KDEC
and KCMI over the next few hours, but will remain sub-severe. Once
a cold front that is currently across eastern Missouri sweeps
through, strong westerly winds will develop later this evening
through Thursday. Forecast soundings support gusts as high as 35
to 40kt at times through that time period before winds slowly
begin to subside somewhat toward sunset Thursday.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063.

&&

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
333 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047>050-121200-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-
SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
333 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
EVENING...AS AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE MIDWEST. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE.

ONCE THE STORMS PASS...WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST FROM 40 TO 50 MPH
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE DIFFICULT TRAVEL
FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING...MAINLY
BETWEEN 6 PM AND 8 PM.

ILZ038-042-043-051>053-121200-
CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-LOGAN-MACON-MCLEAN-SANGAMON-
333 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
EVENING...AS AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE MIDWEST. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

ONCE THE STORMS PASS...WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST FROM 40 TO 50 MPH
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE DIFFICULT TRAVEL
FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING...MAINLY BETWEEN
7 PM AND 9 PM.

ILZ044>046-054>057-061>063-121200-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-COLES-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-MOULTRIE-PIATT-
SHELBY-VERMILION-
333 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING...AS
AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE MIDWEST. THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST...MAINLY
WEST OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS AS THEY PUSH INTO EAST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

ONCE THE STORMS PASS...WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST FROM 40 TO 50 MPH
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE DIFFICULT TRAVEL
FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING...MAINLY BETWEEN
9 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

ILZ066>068-071>073-121200-
CLAY-CRAWFORD-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
333 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
EVENING...AS AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE MIDWEST. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN FURTHER
WEST...MAINLY WEST OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS AS THEY PUSH
INTO EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

ONCE THE STORMS PASS...WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST FROM 30 TO 40 MPH
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE DIFFICULT TRAVEL
FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING...MAINLY BETWEEN
9 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

BARNES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
634 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

ILZ036-040-041-047-120130-
CASS-SCHUYLER-MASON-FULTON-
634 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MASON...SCHUYLER...
SOUTHERN FULTON AND CASS COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CST...

AT 633 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH OF RUSHVILLE TO MOUNT STERLING...MOVING
EAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEARDSTOWN...HAVANA...RUSHVILLE...LEWISTOWN...VIRGINIA...ASTORIA...
BLUFF SPRINGS...VERMONT...CHANDLERVILLE...IPAVA...BATH...KILBOURNE...
LITTLETON...BROWNING...DUNFERMLINE...BRYANT...BANNER...FREDERICK...
LIVERPOOL AND TOPEKA.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 4028 9064 4027 9045 4035 9044 4054 8988
      4012 8998 4013 8998 4010 9000 3997 9001
      3991 9054 3998 9051 3998 9060 4003 9061
      4003 9065 4005 9068 4008 9067 4008 9070
      4010 9070 4011 9072
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 249DEG 46KT 4013 9064

AUTEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
647 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NORMAL                  40.52N 89.00W
11/11/2015                   MCLEAN             IL   PUBLIC

            TREE BLOWN DOWN ON ISU CAMPUS. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

25

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