Severe Thunderstorm Warning 277, NWS Kansas City, MO

797 
WWUS53 KEAX 112043
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
243 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

MOC081-129-112053-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0277.000000T0000Z-151111T2045Z/
MERCER MO-HARRISON MO-
243 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MERCER AND
NORTHWESTERN HARRISON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 245 PM CST...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 4023 9405 4034 9422 4040 9422 4057 9411
      4057 9366
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 214DEG 49KT 4040 9407 

$$

HAWBLITZEL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1149 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 426 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015

Short Term (Today - Tonight)...

The waiting game is just about over. The long advertised arrival of
a vigorous upper trough and potential severe weather generator has
been lifting east-northeast over the past 24 hours and looks like it
has begun to accelerate and turn more northeast. A corresponding
surface low continues to deepen over the Central High Plains and is
expected to track east-northeast today. An impressive southerly low-
level flow and h8 jet continue to pull up moisture with 50+
dewpoints now reaching through eastern KS as well as west central
and central MO. Still seeing a 150kt upper level jet core slicing
southwest-northeast through KS and MO today while the h8 jet
strengthens to 55kt over MO. We continue to see a favorable set-up
for severe weather from the MO/KS border eastward and north into
southern IA.

While scattered weak elevated convection driven by warm air
advection will be possible this morning the main show/concern will
be along an eastward advancing cold front/dryline. Operational
models have shown a slight delay in initiating surface based
convection vs last nights solutions. However, they, along with the
short-range convective allowing models seem to have arrived at a
consensus with activity developing from the northeast corner of
KS/northwest corner MO around 18z and building southward towards KC
Metro. While the 0-6 km bulk shear of 70-80 kts is off the charts
one has to temper severe expectations somewhat due to two factors
which have not gone away...1) limited instability with SBCAPE maxing
out between 600-800 J/kg and 2) the strength of the shear may be so
great as to tear apart the updrafts before they storms can achieve
severe criteria. But should any storm, whether discrete or part of
short line segments, be able to overcome these limiting parameters
rotating severe storms will be possible. Damaging straight line
winds will be the primary threat with a few tornadoes also possible.
While the entire CWA will have a threat of severe weather this
afternoon the highest risk areas will be over north central and
northeast MO.

In addition, strong and gusty southerly winds will likely achieve
advisory criteria by late morning over southern sections of the CWA
and as the dryline/cold front surges east through the region the
winds will veer to the southwest and ramp up even more with gusts in
the 40-50 mph range. There will also be a brief window of several
hours this afternoon where fire weather concerns will be elevated
over parts of west central MO and east central KS.

As the deepening surface low lifts northeast and away from MO the
very tight pressure gradient on the backside of the system will
brush across northwest MO allowing very strong and gusty WNW winds
to ramp up. A segmented wind advisory remains in effect and takes
into account the varying sectors being affected at different times.

Long Term (Thursday - Sunday)...

In the wake of Wednesday's storm system a benign and broad zonal
pattern will guide this dry and seasonally cool period.

(Monday - Tuesday)...
Another deepening upper trough will come into play with the GFS and
ECMWF being in rather good agreement this far out. Moderate chance
PoPs are probably underforecasting the rain threat as moisture from
the Gulf of Mexico looks like it will have sufficient time to have
moved in place prior to the storm's arrival.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015

Cold front currently in the vicinity of central-western KS will
quickly approach and traverse across all four terminals this
afternoon, bringing the chance for storms along and ahead of it.
However, storms that develop may be more discrete in nature in the
vicinity of the terminals, before they congeal further east.
Therefore, have precluded TEMPO mention and will amend as necessary
once the storms initiate and a better handle on if/where they occur
as well as timing. Storm chances will quickly diminish once the front
barrels through, leaving the evening hours free from activity.

Regardless of what happens with storms today, westerly to
northwesterly winds will create significant impacts to aviation
interests today and into tonight. Gusts of around 40 kts. or above
will be possible outside of the aforementioned storms. Some decay in
the wind speeds are anticipated to occur later on tonight and into
early tomorrow as the low pressure system responsible moves out of
the region.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for KSZ057-060-105.

     Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight CST tonight
     for KSZ025-102>104.

MO...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Thursday for
     MOZ002>008-012>017-021>025-031>033-039-040-046.

     Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MOZ037-038-043>045-
     053-054.

     Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight CST tonight
     for MOZ001-011-020-028>030.

&&

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...lg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
533 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-121145-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
533 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY HAZARD IS STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS...LIGHTNING...QUARTER SIZED HAIL...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

STRONG WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. FIRE GROWTH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS DISCOURAGED.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
152 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0121 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 W LEAVENWORTH         39.31N 94.94W
11/11/2015                   LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN JUST WEST OF LEAVENWORTH...WITH A TREE
            OVER K-92 HIGHWAY.

&&

SAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
155 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0136 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MARYVILLE               40.34N 94.87W
11/11/2015                   NODAWAY            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW TREES DOWN WITHIN THE CITY OF MARYVILLE.

&&

SAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
200 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 S LOUISBURG           38.57N 94.68W
11/11/2015                   MIAMI              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWERLINES DOWN SOUTH OF LOUISBURG...WITH DOWNED TREES
            ACROSS OTHER PARTS OF MIAMI COUNTY BLOCKING SEVERAL
            ROADS.

&&

SAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
209 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0159 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST HAMILTON                39.74N 94.00W
11/11/2015  E60 MPH          CALDWELL           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
213 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0203 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 W WORTH               40.41N 94.52W
11/11/2015                   WORTH              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN NEAR OXFORD.

&&

SAW