Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1155 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL FOCUS ON NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG EARLY
SEASON STORM SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH DEEP
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AT 07Z WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW INTO FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA. INVERTED TROUGH MEANWHILE STRETCHES ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. AS SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE TROUGH AND DEEPENS A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW REACHING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP IN THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE COLDER AIR SPREADS EAST BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON RAIN MAY MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO SIOUX CITY LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE BEHIND
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH WIND HEADLINES COVERING
THE FORECAST AREA. WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 50 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 30 TO 45 MPH.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT BUT
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH A RETURN TO
MILD TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015

MILD AND DRY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. FLOW AT THIS
TIME APPEARS TO BE SPLIT WITH COLDER AIR REMAINING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015

INTENSE SFC LOW PRESS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER N-CNTRL KS WILL
QUICKLY LIFT NEWD THIS AFTN AND BE THE FOCUS SCT TSRA OVER
PORTIONS OF ERN NEB THIS AFTN. LATEST SFC OBS INDICATED THAT THE
ASSOCIATED SFC BNDRY WAS NEARLY STATIONARY AND EXTENDED FROM
ABOUT KAXA TO KPTT. IN ADDITION TO THE -TSRA ACTIVITY...STIFF NW
WINDS GUSTING 35-45KT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AND AT
THIS POINT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS UNTIL EARLY THUR MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR NEZ045-052.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
     FOR NEZ090>093.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ053-067-068.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.

IA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR IAZ043-055-056-069.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
113 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-
120915-
KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-STANTON-
CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-SAUNDERS-
DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-JEFFERSON-GAGE-
JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
113 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL COVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WEST
CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS OVER
50 MPH POSSIBLE. RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL...WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF OMAHA.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN IOWA TODAY AND TONIGHT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDE
VARIETY OF WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL HOLD
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO PASS ALONG ANY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS...
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OR DAMAGE FROM THE WINDS.

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-120915-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-
113 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA
AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...TORNADO WATCH 534 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND LAST INTO
AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME TORNADIC IN NATURE
IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. IN ADDITION TO
THE TORNADO THREAT...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL COVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WEST
CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS OVER
50 MPH POSSIBLE. RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL...WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF OMAHA.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN IOWA TODAY AND TONIGHT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDE
VARIETY OF WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL HOLD
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO PASS ALONG ANY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS...
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OR DAMAGE FROM THE WINDS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
121 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

IAZ055-056-069-111945-
SHELBY IA-HARRISON IA-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-
121 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL POTTAWATTAMIE...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON AND SOUTHWESTERN SHELBY COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM
CST...

AT 121 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES NORTHEAST OF TREYNOR...OR 23 MILES EAST OF OMAHA...MOVING NORTH
AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AVOCA...SHELBY...MINDEN AND ARROWHEAD PARK.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 59 IN IOWA NEAR MILE MARKER 64.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 27 AND 40.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR SOUTHWESTERN
IOWA.

LAT...LON 4123 9552 4126 9563 4151 9560 4150 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 200DEG 24KT 4132 9556

BOUSTEAD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
123 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

IAZ079-080-090-091-112000-
FREMONT IA-PAGE IA-MILLS IA-MONTGOMERY IA-
123 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...
SOUTHEASTERN MILLS...NORTHWESTERN PAGE AND NORTHEASTERN FREMONT
COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CST...

AT 123 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES NORTHWEST OF ESSEX...OR 29 MILES NORTH OF TARKIO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHENANDOAH...ESSEX...IMOGENE...COBURG AND PIERCE RECREATION AREA.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 59 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 10 AND 28.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR SOUTHWESTERN
IOWA.

LAT...LON 4072 9538 4080 9552 4100 9544 4101 9527
      4094 9514
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 203DEG 50KT 4087 9540

BOUSTEAD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
137 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

IAZ069-079-080-112000-
MILLS IA-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-MONTGOMERY IA-
137 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATTAMIE...
WESTERN MONTGOMERY AND EAST CENTRAL MILLS COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM
CST...

AT 137 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES NORTHWEST OF RED OAK...OR 26 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ATLANTIC...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RED OAK...ELLIOTT AND FARM CREEK PUBLIC WILDLIFE AREA.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 34 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 30 AND 39.
 HIGHWAY 59 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 34 AND 37.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR SOUTHWESTERN
IOWA.

LAT...LON 4094 9522 4106 9545 4141 9520 4141 9516
      4116 9516 4116 9502
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 213DEG 46KT 4109 9530

BOUSTEAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
146 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RED OAK                 41.01N 95.22W
11/11/2015                   MONTGOMERY         IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER POLES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

VDEWALD

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