Alert archive / Mississippi / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2015
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 49
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Apr 9, 2015, 6:32 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 9, 2015, 6:32 PM CDT (23:32 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 9, 2015, 11:53 PM CDT
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 2 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 64 counties
Ashley County, AR, Chicot County, AR, Clay County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Greene County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Lee County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Randolph County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Dunklin County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lee County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Panola County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Union County, MS, Washington County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Benton County, TN, Carroll County, TN, Chester County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Decatur County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Madison County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Obion County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN, Weakley County, TN
The radar
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 24 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 20%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 2%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 50%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 10%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 50%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 30%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 80%
Warnings issued inside it
5 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 6:59 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Clay, Greene | 23 min |
| Apr 9, 7:05 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Lawrence | 40 min |
| Apr 9, 9:45 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Craighead, Greene, Lawrence, Poinsett | 45 min |
| Apr 9, 9:54 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | MEG | Craighead, Greene, Lawrence, Poinsett | 3 hr |
| Apr 9, 11:25 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | JAN | Ashley, Chicot | 3 hr |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 46 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 91 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -182 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 880 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 46 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 215 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 200 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 3.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
440
WWUS20 KWNS 092331
SEL9
SPC WW 092331
ARZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-100600-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 49
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
635 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN ARKANSAS
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WEST TENNESSEE
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 635 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF
DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREENWOOD
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 39...WW 40...WW 41...WW
42...WW 43...WW 44...WW 45...WW 46...WW 47...WW 48...
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER AR WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF TN/MS DURING THE EVENING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL PROMOTE
ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...HARTSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2:15 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland and 32 more | 2 hr |
| Apr 9, 2:32 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Benton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more | 7 hr |
| Apr 9, 3:06 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Arkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia and 13 more | 7 hr |
| Apr 9, 3:17 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Baxter, Boone, Cleburne, Conway, Faulkner, Fulton and 29 more | 7 hr |
| Apr 9, 6:11 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Baxter, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Clay and 57 more | 64 min |
| Apr 8, 7:04 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Iron, Madison, Perry, Sainte Genevieve and 1 more | 116 min |
| Apr 9, 12:29 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Clark, Grundy, Knox, Linn, Macon and 5 more | 91 min |
| Apr 9, 12:58 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adair, Audrain, Boone, Callaway, Carroll, Chariton and 27 more | 6 hr |
| Apr 9, 1:32 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barry, Barton, Benton, Camden, Cedar, Dade and 11 more | 118 min |
| Apr 9, 3:12 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Audrain, Boone, Chariton, Clark, Cooper and 19 more | 93 min |
| Apr 9, 3:45 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Crawford, Franklin and 14 more | 60 min |
| Apr 9, 4:40 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Crawford, Franklin, Iron, Jefferson, Lincoln, Madison and 8 more | 6 hr |
| Apr 9, 6:48 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Mississippi, New Madrid and 5 more | 6 hr |
| Apr 9, 4:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carter, Johnson, Unicoi | 54 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Mississippi, 2015Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Tennessee, 2015Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Arkansas, 2015Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.