Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313

June 19, 201510 counties in Montana; 29 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jun 19, 2015, 2:01 PM MDT for 10 counties in Montana; 29 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 9 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 19, 2015, 2:01 PM MDT (20:01 UTC)
Expired: Jun 19, 2015, 10:47 PM MDT
In force: 9 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 2 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 39 counties

Daniels County, MT, Dawson County, MT, Garfield County, MT, McCone County, MT, Prairie County, MT, Richland County, MT, Roosevelt County, MT, Sheridan County, MT, Valley County, MT, Wibaux County, MT, Adams County, ND, Billings County, ND, Bowman County, ND, Burke County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Divide County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Golden Valley County, ND, Grant County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, McLean County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Morton County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Renville County, ND, Sioux County, ND, Slope County, ND, Stark County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Ward County, ND, Williams County, ND

The radar

The Glasgow radar (KGGW), 156 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 5%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 10%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 40%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 70%

Warnings issued inside it

24 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 19, 2:22 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GGW	Daniels, Roosevelt, Sheridan, Valley	53 min
Jun 19, 2:59 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GGW	Dawson, Garfield, McCone	49 min
Jun 19, 3:15 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GGW	McCone, Richland, Roosevelt	60 min
Jun 19, 3:20 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GGW	Prairie	55 min
Jun 19, 3:58 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GGW	Dawson	62 min
Jun 19, 4:11 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McKenzie, Williams	64 min
Jun 19, 4:12 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GGW	Richland, Roosevelt	18 min
Jun 19, 4:25 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GGW	Richland, Roosevelt	20 min
Jun 19, 4:26 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GGW	Dawson, Richland, Wibaux	46 min
Jun 19, 4:37 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GGW	Dawson, Richland, Wibaux	23 min
Jun 19, 4:47 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GGW	Phillips, Valley	58 min
Jun 19, 4:47 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Billings, Golden Valley, McKenzie	58 min
Jun 19, 4:53 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GGW	Dawson, Wibaux	58 min
Jun 19, 5:02 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn, McKenzie	58 min
Jun 19, 5:19 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Bowman, Slope	56 min
Jun 19, 5:31 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Billings, Golden Valley	41 min
Jun 19, 5:41 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Billings, Dunn, McKenzie, McLean, Mercer	64 min
Jun 19, 5:50 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GGW	Daniels, Phillips, Valley	55 min
Jun 19, 6:09 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Adams, Bowman	29 min
Jun 19, 6:38 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn, Mercer, Morton, Oliver, Stark	67 min
Jun 19, 7:21 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, McLean, Morton, Oliver	54 min
Jun 19, 7:43 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Kidder, Morton	62 min
Jun 19, 8:15 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Emmons, Logan, Morton, Sioux	30 min
Jun 19, 8:45 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Emmons, Kidder, Logan, McIntosh, Stutsman	60 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Glasgow Intl Airport, MT (KGGW), launched 12:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 155 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 181 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -225 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1086 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 86 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 85 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 18, 8:10 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Big Horn, Carbon, Powder River, Rosebud, Stillwater, Treasure and 1 more	65 min
Jun 18, 11:02 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Carter, Powder River	3 hr
Jun 19, 12:53 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Blaine, Daniels, Dawson, Fergus, Garfield, McCone and 7 more	2 hr
Jun 19, 2:04 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Big Horn, Carbon, Carter, Custer, Fallon, Golden Valley and 8 more	116 min
Jun 19, 2:51 PM MDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Big Horn, Carbon, Carter, Custer, Fallon, Musselshell and 5 more	7 hr
Jun 19, 4:48 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Dawson, Fallon, McCone, Prairie, Richland, Roosevelt and 2 more	57 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in North Dakota, 2015 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Montana, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.