Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
653 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES AS LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CONTINUE TO WORK INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CORE OF STRONGEST
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. CURRENTLY MAIN THREATS
REMAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS THIS EVENING GOES
ON AND STORMS WORK TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A TRANSITION INTO A MORE ORGANIZED MCS WITH A BROADER
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. STORMS SHOULD BE PUSHED MAINLY INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 313 FOR WESTERN
AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGHLIGHTS
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

AS OF 1850 UTC...CUMULUS FIELDS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA ARE
CONTINUING TO GROW VERTICALLY WITH A FEW STORMS ALREADY ONGOING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE 15-17 UTC
HRRR AND 12 UTC GLOBAL AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING DETERMINISTIC
SUITES DEPICT CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED
DESTABILIZATION AND MULTIPLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST
WESTERLIES ALOFT. 21-22 UTC STILL LOOKS TO BE A REASONABLE
ESTIMATE FOR CONVECTION TO FORM ACROSS OR MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 00-02 UTC THIS EVENING. 2000-2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. WHILE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS WEAK AND LCLS A BIT HIGH...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A
TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO BEGIN THE EVENT.
CONGEALING OF STORMS INTO A POSSIBLE MCS IS STILL FAVORED LATE
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1072 FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

CONTINUED MULTIPLE IMPULSES IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CENTRAL ON SATURDAY.
A FEW MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH RESIDUAL UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

A CONTINUATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MIGRATING THROUGH A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS THE THEME.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTHERN CANADA ACCOMPANIED BY A 90KT JETSTREAK. THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A 120KT JET AND IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.
THUS ENHANCED LIFT VIA THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
RESULTING IN THE HIGHEST POPS/LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE
NORTHCENTRAL...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. POSSIBLY A
BREAK ON MONDAY AS A TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EVERY 24HR TO 36HR PROMOTING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
THROUGH WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. BEHIND
THE STORMS...AREAS OF MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.
CIGS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING SATURDAY TO VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
839 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

NDZ018>021-033>037-040>048-050-051-210145-
DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-
SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-
MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
839 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM SOUTHWESTERN INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK AT 701-223-4582...OR ON SOCIAL MEDIA.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017-022-023-025-031-032-210145-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-
BILLINGS-
839 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER EXPERIENCED
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BISMARCK AT 701-223-4582...OR ON SOCIAL MEDIA.

JJS

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