Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
306 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE SUITE IS GENERALLY UNDERPLAYING THE
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MIXED LAYER
CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IS COINCIDENT WITH AROUND 35 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR AS OF 19 UTC...BUT SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER MONTANA MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR NOW...WE WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND EXPECT ONLY STRONG
STORMS.

FOR SUNDAY...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE 12 UTC HIRES WINDOW ARW IS PARTICULARLY BOISTEROUS
WITH CONVECTION FIRING AROUND 21 UTC ON THE MISSOURI SLOPE AND
THEN MOVING EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12 UTC
GFS...WHILE THE 12 UTC ECMWF HAS SIMILAR TIMING WITH CONVECTION
FURTHER SOUTH. FORECASTS ARE GENERALLY A BLEND OF THOSE THREE
MODELS WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SOME STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE BY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

QUASI-ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MIGRATING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A POTENTIAL WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEKEND.

UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LATEST SPC THUNDERSTORM RISK OF SLIGHT RISK OVER MOST OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. THE FIRST TAKING AIM OVER THE
NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK SCOOTING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE SECOND AREA IS IN THE SOUTH...WHERE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL ALSO HAVE UPPER SUPPORT VIA A 90KT JET
STREAK. AN 850MB 30KT SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. MODELS
DEPICT AN MCS TYPE COMPLEX DEVELOPING SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTH
OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL SEE DRYING CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. OF COURSE
TIMING ISSUES THIS FAR OUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME ADJUSTMENTS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BY NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK...AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE PER ECMWF AND GFS ACROSS THE
WEST WITH A COMPENSATING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY MAY DEVELOP. THE NET RESULT FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WOULD BE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHORTWAVES ALWAYS A
CONCERN IN THIS FLOW...BUT AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND
DURATION OF EVENTS WILL LIKELY BE MUCH LESS THAN OUR PATTERN WE ARE
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST...BUT LOCATION IS TOO LOW
CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO TAFS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
IFR FOG IS AT KMOT AFTER 07 UTC TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...SCHECK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
315 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-212015-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
315 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN...WINDS TO 50 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ANOTHER WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SCHECK/KS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
200 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

NDZ004-201930-
BOTTINEAU-
200 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN BOTTINEAU
COUNTY...

AT 157 PM CDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER SOURIS...OR
13 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOTTINEAU...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOURIS...LAKE METIGOSHE STATE PARK...CARBURY AND ROTH.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS STORM. FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN
STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE
A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4874 10055 4874 10057 4890 10085 4892 10084
      4900 10075 4900 10031
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 304DEG 15KT 4894 10069

SIMOSKO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
239 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

NDZ012-013-202015-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-
239 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MCHENRY AND WEST
CENTRAL PIERCE COUNTIES...

AT 238 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 12 MILES EAST OF
KARLSRUHE...OR 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RUGBY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...ORRIN AND GEORGE LAKE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4811 10050 4825 10032 4813 9999 4792 10028
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 301DEG 23KT 4814 10035

ACOOP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
313 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

NDZ013-202045-
PIERCE ND-
313 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN PIERCE COUNTY...

AT 312 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BALTA...OR 19 MILES NORTH OF HARVEY...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN PIERCE
COUNTY...AFFECTING TRAVELERS ALONG HIGHWAY 3 BETWEEN BALTA AND SELZ.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4812 9984 4802 9985 4801 9981 4790 9981
      4800 10013 4814 10010 4814 9985
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 287DEG 29KT 4806 9996

SCHILD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
329 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 PM     HAIL             8 NNW SELZ              47.96N  99.96W
06/20/2015  E1.25 INCH       PIERCE             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STILL HAILING AS OF 325 PM CDT WITH HEAVY RAIN

&&

AC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
351 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

NDZ023-202115-
WELLS-
351 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WELLS COUNTY...

AT 350 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MADDOCK...OR 14 MILES EAST OF HARVEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...HEIMDAL...BREMEN AND HAMBERG.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4752 9931 4778 9980 4785 9973 4785 9942
      4781 9930 4767 9929 4767 9926 4757 9926
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 302DEG 30KT 4782 9963

ACOOP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
356 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

NDZ013-202130-
PIERCE-
356 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PIERCE COUNTY...

AT 356 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
RUGBY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUGBY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4842 9949 4837 9950 4837 9984 4830 9985
      4840 10005 4855 9991
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 302DEG 30KT 4844 9988

ACOOP