Alert archive / South Dakota / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 314

June 19, 201511 counties in Montana; 11 counties in South Dakota; 5 counties in Wyoming

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jun 19, 2015, 2:51 PM MDT for 11 counties in Montana; 11 counties in South Dakota; 5 counties in Wyoming. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 19, 2015, 2:51 PM MDT (20:51 UTC)
Expired
Jun 19, 2015, 10:00 PM MDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 27 counties

Big Horn County, MT, Carbon County, MT, Carter County, MT, Custer County, MT, Fallon County, MT, Musselshell County, MT, Powder River County, MT, Rosebud County, MT, Stillwater County, MT, Treasure County, MT, Yellowstone County, MT, Bennett County, SD, Butte County, SD, Custer County, SD, Haakon County, SD, Harding County, SD, Jackson County, SD, Lawrence County, SD, Meade County, SD, Pennington County, SD, Perkins County, SD, Ziebach County, SD, Campbell County, WY, Crook County, WY, Johnson County, WY, Sheridan County, WY, Weston County, WY

The radar

The Billings radar (KBLX), 222 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

42 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 19, 2:51 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZCuster, Powder River, Rosebud54 min
Jun 19, 3:13 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZCuster, Rosebud62 min
Jun 19, 3:40 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZCuster, Powder River65 min
Jun 19, 3:49 PM MDTTornado WarningBYZCuster, Powder River26 min
Jun 19, 3:58 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZCuster62 min
Jun 19, 4:12 PM MDTTornado WarningBYZCuster, Powder River33 min
Jun 19, 4:20 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZFallon55 min
Jun 19, 4:30 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZBig Horn, Yellowstone60 min
Jun 19, 4:33 PM MDTFlash Flood WarningBYZYellowstone6 hr
Jun 19, 4:41 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZCarter, Powder River64 min
Jun 19, 5:05 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZFallon55 min
Jun 19, 5:19 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZBig Horn56 min
Jun 19, 5:29 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningUNRCampbell, Crook61 min
Jun 19, 5:39 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZCarter66 min
Jun 19, 5:48 PM MDTTornado WarningUNRCampbell, Crook30 min
Jun 19, 6:01 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZBig Horn, Rosebud44 min
Jun 19, 6:15 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningUNRButte, Lawrence60 min
Jun 19, 6:23 PM MDTTornado WarningBYZCarter37 min
Jun 19, 6:26 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningUNRCrook32 min
Jun 19, 6:33 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZPowder River57 min
Jun 19, 6:44 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZRosebud21 min
Jun 19, 6:49 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZCarter, Fallon56 min
Jun 19, 7:01 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZCarter, Powder River29 min
Jun 19, 7:12 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningUNRButte, Lawrence63 min
Jun 19, 7:16 PM MDTFlash Flood WarningBYZCarter, Powder River5 hr
Jun 19, 7:16 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningUNRCampbell, Crook74 min
Jun 19, 7:20 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZCarter, Powder River55 min
Jun 19, 7:34 PM MDTFlash Flood WarningUNRButte3 hr
Jun 19, 7:41 PM MDTTornado WarningUNRButte, Lawrence29 min
Jun 19, 7:49 PM MDTTornado WarningUNRCrook26 min
Jun 19, 7:55 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningUNRCampbell, Crook65 min
Jun 19, 8:09 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningUNRButte, Meade66 min
Jun 19, 8:13 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZCarter24 min
Jun 19, 8:15 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningUNRButte, Lawrence, Meade60 min
Jun 19, 8:30 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningUNRButte, Lawrence60 min
Jun 19, 8:44 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningUNRButte, Lawrence, Meade61 min
Jun 19, 8:49 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningUNRButte, Meade, Pennington56 min
Jun 19, 8:53 PM MDTTornado WarningUNRMeade37 min
Jun 19, 9:13 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningUNRButte, Lawrence, Meade44 min
Jun 19, 9:26 PM MDTTornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threatUNRMeade, Pennington49 min
Jun 19, 9:31 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningUNRLawrence, Pennington59 min
Jun 19, 9:41 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningUNRHaakon, Jackson, Meade, Pennington64 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Rapid City, SD (KRAP), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 277 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Rapid City, SD at 12:00Z on 2015-06-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Rapid City, SD at 12:00Z on 2015-06-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 20 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
935 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
20 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
379 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

766 
WWUS20 KWNS 192052
SEL4  
SPC WW 192052
MTZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-200400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 314
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  SOUTHEAST MONTANA
  WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
  NORTHEAST WYOMING

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM UNTIL
  1000 PM MDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A
VERY LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADO RISK THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A SQUALL LINE SHOULD BEGIN TO
EVOLVE BY EARLY/MID-EVENING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A CONCENTRATED
CORRIDOR OF WIND DAMAGE BECOMING MORE OF A CONCERN.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
BILLINGS MONTANA TO 30 MILES NORTH OF PHILIP SOUTH DAKOTA.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 313...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025.


...GUYER

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 18, 8:10 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBig Horn, Carbon, Powder River, Rosebud, Stillwater, Treasure and 1 more65 min
Jun 18, 11:02 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCarter, Powder River3 hr
Jun 19, 12:53 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Daniels, Dawson, Fergus, Garfield, McCone and 7 more2 hr
Jun 19, 2:01 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCDaniels, Dawson, Garfield, McCone, Prairie, Richland and 4 more9 hr
Jun 19, 2:04 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBig Horn, Carbon, Carter, Custer, Fallon, Golden Valley and 8 more116 min
Jun 19, 4:48 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDawson, Fallon, McCone, Prairie, Richland, Roosevelt and 2 more57 min
Jun 19, 2:28 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButte, Haakon, Harding, Lawrence, Meade, Perkins and 1 more92 min
Jun 19, 9:01 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAurora, Brule, Buffalo, Charles Mix, Davison, Douglas and 9 more89 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in South Dakota, 2015Tornado Watches in Montana, 2015Tornado Watches in Wyoming, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.