Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
316 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST HOUR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BUT ESPECIALLY
AREAS EAST OF BILLINGS. AGAIN...NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL SEE A
THUNDERSTORM BUT THOSE THAT DO MAY SEE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. BETTER DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE TODAY AND
LITTLE TO NO CAP EXISTS.

A STRONG JET COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STORM INITIATION ANYTIME NOW
WEST OF BILLINGS WITH MOVEMENT TO THE EAST INTO THE BILLINGS AREA
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST OF
BILLINGS...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE
OR POSSIBLE DERECHO WHICH WOULD RESULT IN VERY DAMAGING WINDS. THE
LINE OF STORMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES AND COULD BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING. SHEAR
PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AT THE ONSET OF THE
CONVECTION SO WE ARE MONITORING THIS CLOSELY. THE STRONG TO SEVERE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY LATE EVENING WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY WITH
SOME WEAK RIDGING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BOTH DAYS RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME...THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAKER
THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SO AT THIS
TIME...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

ONCE AGAIN...THE ENSEMBLES SHOWED DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN UNTIL FRI...BUT DIFFERED
ON PATTERN DETAILS. THUS ONLY MADE A FEW POP ADJUSTMENTS.

THERE WILL BE WEAK UPPER RIDGING WITH ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW MON THROUGH TUE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE NEAR AN INCH
OVER EASTERN AREAS DUE TO LOW-LEVEL SE FLOW. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE AREA ON TUE. SHORTWAVE CROSSES MT TUE NIGHT AND
WED...AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN NEAR AN INCH OVER THE
E...WHICH SUPPORTED POPS DURING THESE PERIODS. UPPER RIDGING WILL
PROVIDE A DRIER PERIOD WED NIGHT AND THU. ON FRI...THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE GFS GOES NW ALOFT.
POPS LOOKED REASONABLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD. NONE OF THE
DAYS LOOKED PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.
ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND KLVM AROUND
19Z...THEN SPREAD E TO AROUND KBIL BY 20Z. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND REACH KMLS AND KSHR AROUND 22Z. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH WINDS GREATER THAN 50 KT...LARGE
HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. CONDITIONS IN THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR...WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS E OF KBIL AND
KSHR. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM KBIL E.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA FROM W TO E BETWEEN
01Z AND 04Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE E AND S OF KBIL
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA SAT
MORNING. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/078 055/080 055/083 057/083 059/084 059/088 062/087
    32/T    21/B    12/T    23/T    32/T    21/B    11/B
LVM 047/078 045/080 048/082 051/083 052/084 052/088 054/087
    22/T    21/B    22/T    23/T    32/T    21/U    11/U
HDN 054/081 054/080 055/085 057/085 059/085 060/090 061/089
    42/T    21/B    12/T    23/T    33/T    21/B    11/B
MLS 057/082 055/081 055/080 057/081 059/083 060/085 061/086
    61/B    21/B    12/T    33/T    33/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 056/079 056/079 054/081 056/081 059/083 060/086 061/086
    61/B    21/B    23/T    33/T    33/T    32/T    22/T
BHK 056/080 051/081 051/077 054/078 058/080 057/082 058/082
    81/B    22/T    22/T    33/T    44/T    32/T    22/T
SHR 054/076 050/080 051/083 053/081 055/081 055/085 056/085
    42/T    21/B    12/T    23/T    32/T    21/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...TORNADO WATCH 314 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 29>39-56>58-66-67.
WY...TORNADO WATCH 314 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 98-99.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
321 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-202130-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-
FALLON-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY-
LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST BIGHORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
321 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM
YELLOWSTONE COUNTY EAST TO THE DAKOTA BORDERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
352 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WNW MILES CITY        46.43N 105.89W
06/19/2015  M60.00 MPH       CUSTER             MT   ASOS

0341 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WNW MILES CITY        46.43N 105.89W
06/19/2015  M60.00 MPH       CUSTER             MT   ASOS

&&

WD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
409 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     HAIL             13 E MILES CITY         46.38N 105.57W
06/19/2015  M1.00 INCH       CUSTER             MT   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON THE HIGHWAY.

&&

WD

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