Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
201 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
ATMOSPHERE A BIT VOLATILE THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA IS INDUCING A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA.
BUT LOW LEVELS ARE BECOMING UNSTABLE ESPECIALLY OVER SE MT WHERE
FULL JUNE SUNSHINE IS DESTABILIZING THE LOW LEVELS MAINLY SE OF
THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER.

EXPECTING STORMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE NE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON TO
REMAIN STRONG. BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAVE SEVERE WORDING.
BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE SE ZONES MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF SUPERCELL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS...SO WILL LEAVE WORDING HERE AS
WELL.
SYSTEM CLEARS OUT TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG
LOOKS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES.

THE COOLER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW BLANKETS MONTANA
SATURDAY. A DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
(HIGHS IN THE 70S MOSTLY) WILL MAKE FOR PLEASANT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

A STRENGTHENING SW UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY TO AREA SUNDAY...BUT NOTHING COMPARED TO
TODAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODELS DO NOT REVEAL ANY NEW DIFFERENCES. THEREFORE FEW EDITS WERE
NECESSARY. WITH A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY TODAY...WILL KEEP
CHANGES TO A MINIMUM...AND MAINLY FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PATTERN OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

WHILE THE OVERALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD IS
HIGH...MODEL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW RESULTS IN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR INDIVIDUAL PERIODS.
WITH THE SUGGESTION OF SLIGHT RIDGING MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA
ON MONDAY BY BOTH THE EC AND GFS...WENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE EC. THIS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK WHEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE STATE. AGAIN THE MODEL TIMING IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT FOR
THIS WAVE. UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBOUND OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES BY NEXT WEEKEND FOR WARMER AND POTENTIALLY DRIER
CONDITIONS. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR...EXCEPT NEAR STORMS.

A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY AND EVENING IS EXPECTED.

WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. THE
STRONGEST STORMS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY...AND
FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
355 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015

MTZ016>027-059>062-201100-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
355 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME BECOMING
SEVERE ALONG THE YELLOWSTONE VALLEY WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS... LARGE HAIL... AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1252 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     HAIL             6 WNW FRENCHMAN RESERVO 48.73N 107.36W
06/19/2015  E0.25 INCH       PHILLIPS           MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN AT THE TIME - 0.40 INCHES IN ABOUT 10 MINUTES.

&&

BB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
103 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015

MTZ017-018-020-061-192000-
DANIELS-ROOSEVELT-VALLEY-
103 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...
  NORTHWESTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...
  WESTERN DANIELS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

UNTIL 200 PM MDT.

AT 101 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTH OF SAINT MARIE...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
   RICHLAND...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4842 10565 4835 10688 4858 10715 4899 10705
      4901 10669 4901 10569
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 259DEG 25KT 4857 10659

TEMPLER
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

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