Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
201 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
ATMOSPHERE A BIT VOLATILE THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA IS INDUCING A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA.
BUT LOW LEVELS ARE BECOMING UNSTABLE ESPECIALLY OVER SE MT WHERE
FULL JUNE SUNSHINE IS DESTABILIZING THE LOW LEVELS MAINLY SE OF
THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER.

EXPECTING STORMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE NE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON TO
REMAIN STRONG. BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAVE SEVERE WORDING.
BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE SE ZONES MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF SUPERCELL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS...SO WILL LEAVE WORDING HERE AS
WELL.
SYSTEM CLEARS OUT TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG
LOOKS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES.

THE COOLER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW BLANKETS MONTANA
SATURDAY. A DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
(HIGHS IN THE 70S MOSTLY) WILL MAKE FOR PLEASANT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

A STRENGTHENING SW UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY TO AREA SUNDAY...BUT NOTHING COMPARED TO
TODAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODELS DO NOT REVEAL ANY NEW DIFFERENCES. THEREFORE FEW EDITS WERE
NECESSARY. WITH A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY TODAY...WILL KEEP
CHANGES TO A MINIMUM...AND MAINLY FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PATTERN OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

WHILE THE OVERALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD IS
HIGH...MODEL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW RESULTS IN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR INDIVIDUAL PERIODS.
WITH THE SUGGESTION OF SLIGHT RIDGING MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA
ON MONDAY BY BOTH THE EC AND GFS...WENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE EC. THIS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK WHEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE STATE. AGAIN THE MODEL TIMING IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT FOR
THIS WAVE. UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBOUND OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES BY NEXT WEEKEND FOR WARMER AND POTENTIALLY DRIER
CONDITIONS. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR...EXCEPT NEAR STORMS.

A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY AND EVENING IS EXPECTED.

WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. THE
STRONGEST STORMS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY...AND
FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
355 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015

MTZ016>027-059>062-201100-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
355 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME BECOMING
SEVERE ALONG THE YELLOWSTONE VALLEY WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS... LARGE HAIL... AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
402 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND GST     14 S TERRY              46.59N 105.31W
06/19/2015  E60 MPH          PRAIRIE            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL FROM DIME TO NICKEL SIZE

&&

BB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
416 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015

MTZ025-026-192315-
DAWSON-PRAIRIE-
416 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL PRAIRIE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...
  SOUTHERN DAWSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

UNTIL 515 PM MDT.

AT 412 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTH OF TERRY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
   GLENDIVE...

LAT...LON 4697 10436 4684 10532 4703 10542 4729 10447
      4699 10434
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 253DEG 28KT 4696 10524

TFJ
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
422 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W GLENDIVE            47.11N 104.75W
06/19/2015  M66 MPH          DAWSON             MT   AWOS

            AT GLENDIVE AIRPORT

&&

RICHM