Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
850 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE SSEO DID HIGHLIGHT OUR
NORTHERN ZONES SEEING MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
THAN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BUT ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
ACROSS THE CWA AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...HOT HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS. A BROAD WEAK RIDGE RUNS UP FROM THIS
INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES AT THE TOP OF
THIS RIDGE UNDER ZONAL ALOFT. FARTHER WEST THIS SAME FLOW TURNS
SOUTHWEST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.

TODAY AND TONIGHT... FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN SOUTHWEST TO ZONAL AND
COOL OFF THE MID LAYERS ALLOWING INSTABILITY AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HANG ON IN THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CAPE WILL BE VERY HIGH AHEAD OF A LEE MOUNTAIN TROUGH BUT SHEAR IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND MOISTURE BEHIND
THE TROUGH IS LACKING. THIS WILL LEAD TO SPLIT ENVIRONMENTS WITH A
HAIL PRODUCING THREAT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND WIND THREAT DIRECTLY
BEHIND FROM ANY COLLAPSING CELLS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES OF THE CWA INCLUDING
THE YELLOWSTONE VALLEY. SPC HAS PLACED THOSE AREA IN A SLIGHT TO
ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY...FLOW REMAINS SIMILAR BUT SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BECOME
CUT OFF FROM THE REGION AND A WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE WITH NO NEW
INSTABILITY MECHANISMS WILL BECOME MUCH LESS CONDUCIVE TO SHOWERS
LET ALONE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... CLOSED LOW OVER THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST WILL BREAK APART WITH A SIGNIFICANT LARGE COOL
VORT MAX MOVING IN THE FLOW OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
COOL THE MID ATMOSPHERE YET AGAIN ALLOWING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IN THESE TWO PERIODS IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE
AS MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME PLACING THE VORT
MAX AND ITS SUBSEQUENT JET STREAKS. THESE KEY FEATURES TO FRONTAL
AND SHOWER PLACEMENT ARE TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY DISJUNCT FROM
EACH OTHER BY NEARLY AN ENTIRE STATE WORTH OF DISTANCE AMONG THE
MODELS WHICH IS VERY RARE THIS CLOSE IN THE SHORT TERM. GAH

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
PATTERN OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

WHILE THE OVERALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD IS
HIGH... MODEL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW RESULTS IN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR INDIVIDUAL PERIODS.
WITH THE SUGGESTION OF SLIGHT RIDGING MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA
ON MONDAY BY BOTH THE EC AND GFS...WENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE EC. THIS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK WHEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE STATE. AGAIN THE MODEL TIMING IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT FOR
THIS WAVE. UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBOUND OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES BY NEXT WEEKEND FOR WARMER AND POTENTIALLY DRIER
CONDITIONS. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR/IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HELP PUSH THE LOW CLOUDS TO THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ALSO BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY. SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
355 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015

MTZ016>027-059>062-201100-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
355 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME BECOMING
SEVERE ALONG THE YELLOWSTONE VALLEY WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS... LARGE HAIL... AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1210 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015

MTZ016-017-059-061-191915-
PHILLIPS-VALLEY-
1210 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN VALLEY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...
  NORTHEASTERN PHILLIPS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

UNTIL 115 PM MDT.

AT 1208 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SACO  THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
  RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN PHILLIPS COUNTY...
  RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN VALLEY COUNTY...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4854 10679 4845 10771 4870 10785 4901 10714
      4900 10705
TIME...MOT...LOC 1810Z 180DEG 0KT 4840 10734

TEMPLER
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1252 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     HAIL             6 WNW FRENCHMAN RESERVO 48.73N 107.36W
06/19/2015  E0.25 INCH       PHILLIPS           MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN AT THE TIME - 0.40 INCHES IN ABOUT 10 MINUTES.

&&

BB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
103 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015

MTZ017-018-020-061-192000-
DANIELS-ROOSEVELT-VALLEY-
103 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...
  NORTHWESTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...
  WESTERN DANIELS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

UNTIL 200 PM MDT.

AT 101 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTH OF SAINT MARIE...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
   RICHLAND...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4842 10565 4835 10688 4858 10715 4899 10705
      4901 10669 4901 10569
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 259DEG 25KT 4857 10659

TEMPLER
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

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