Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272

June 7, 201531 counties in Kansas; 25 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jun 7, 2015, 7:23 PM CDT for 31 counties in Kansas; 25 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 7, 2015, 7:23 PM CDT (00:23 UTC)
Expired: Jun 8, 2015, 2:47 AM CDT
In force: 7 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 2.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 56 counties

Allen County, KS, Anderson County, KS, Atchison County, KS, Chase County, KS, Clay County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Geary County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Linn County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Marion County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Miami County, KS, Morris County, KS, Osage County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Riley County, KS, Saline County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Bates County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Henry County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Platte County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 2%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 20%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 10%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 50%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 60%

Warnings issued inside it

16 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 7, 7:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ICT	Saline	18 min
Jun 7, 7:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Dickinson	47 min
Jun 7, 7:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Jackson, Pottawatomie, Shawnee	41 min
Jun 7, 7:52 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Linn, Macon	6 hr
Jun 7, 8:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Dickinson, Morris	49 min
Jun 7, 8:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Dickinson, Morris	41 min
Jun 7, 8:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ICT	Chase	35 min
Jun 7, 9:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Chariton, Randolph	37 min
Jun 7, 9:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Lyon	36 min
Jun 7, 9:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ICT	Chase	33 min
Jun 7, 9:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Chariton, Randolph	46 min
Jun 7, 9:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Douglas, Osage, Shawnee	25 min
Jun 7, 10:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Chariton, Howard, Randolph	51 min
Jun 7, 10:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Anderson, Coffey	21 min
Jun 7, 11:14 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Howard, Randolph	6 hr
Jun 8, 12:46 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Johnson, Pettis	28 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 00:00Z, 0.4 hours before the alert went out and 16 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1557 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -7 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2044 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 72 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 157 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 5.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 7, 9:38 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, Anderson, Bourbon, Butler, Chase, Coffey and 12 more	97 min
Jun 7, 11:29 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anderson, Chase, Coffey, Douglas, Franklin, Greenwood and 7 more	91 min
Jun 7, 7:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Audrain, Boone, Callaway, Knox, Lewis, Lincoln and 6 more	7 hr
Jun 7, 9:52 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Audrain, Callaway, Lincoln, Monroe, Montgomery, Pike and 1 more	53 min
Jun 8, 12:08 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Butler, Dunklin, Mississippi, New Madrid, Pemiscot, Scott and 1 more	97 min
Jun 8, 12:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Dunklin, Mississippi, New Madrid, Pemiscot	8 hr
Jun 8, 2:32 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Audrain, Knox, Lewis, Marion, Monroe, Pike and 2 more	118 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Kansas, 2015 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Missouri, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.