Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Topeka, KS

515 
WWUS53 KTOP 080037
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
737 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

KSC041-080115-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-150608T0115Z/
DICKINSON-
737 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
DICKINSON COUNTY UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 735 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF
GYPSUM...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HERINGTON...CARLTON AND HOPE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3893 9738 3878 9693 3861 9693 3861 9694
      3861 9714 3872 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 294DEG 29KT 3880 9737

HAIL...2.50IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

GARGAN

830 
WWUS53 KTOP 080049
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
749 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

KSC041-080115-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-150608T0115Z/
DICKINSON-
749 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
DICKINSON COUNTY UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 746 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF
CARLTON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HERINGTON AND HOPE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3889 9726 3888 9724 3878 9693 3862 9693
      3861 9694 3861 9714 3873 9734
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 294DEG 29KT 3876 9726

HAIL...2.50IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

GARGAN

313 
WWUS53 KTOP 080059
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
759 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

KSC041-080115-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-150608T0115Z/
DICKINSON-
759 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
DICKINSON COUNTY UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 756 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF
HOPE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HERINGTON AND HOPE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3886 9717 3885 9715 3878 9693 3865 9693
      3862 9693 3861 9694 3861 9710 3872 9725
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 296DEG 32KT 3871 9716

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

GARGAN

188 
WWUS53 KTOP 080103
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
803 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

KSC041-080115-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-150608T0115Z/
DICKINSON-
803 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
DICKINSON COUNTY UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 801 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HOPE...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HERINGTON AND HOPE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 9718 3877 9718 3883 9710 3878 9693
      3862 9693 3861 9694 3861 9710
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 296DEG 32KT 3869 9711

HAIL...2.50IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

GARGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
638 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

19Z water vapor imagery shows the mid level ridge over TX has
flattened out as a northern stream shortwave propagates through SD
and NEB. At the surface, a diffuse trough axis has set up from near
Minneapolis to Holton with only some modest convergence along this
boundary. Meanwhile the airmass has become moderately unstable with
RAP and LAPS analysis showing CAPE values in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg
range. Inhibition is almost completely gone as convection has
recently formed over northwest MO.

For the late afternoon and this evening, think thunderstorms
development should continue west along the trough axis into eastern
KS, as the northern stream shortwave swings along the NEB state
line. Profiler data already shows the 850 winds veered to the west
southwest. This could lead to possible training of storms as flow
parallels the boundary. Additionally storms could become severe as
deep layer shear improves with increasing mid level winds spreading
in from the west. Main concerns remain large hail and torrential
rainfall given high PWs values. Though there could be some damaging
winds if storms congeal into small MCS. However with storm
development near the forecast area and models trending towards more
scattered convection, am thinking a large MCS with prolonged heavy
rain is a little less likely. Because of this think the flooding
risk is highest across east central KS ahead of the trough axis.
Have adjusted the watch to remove a few counties in north central
KS. Everything may be more progressive with precip coming to an end
before dawn. If this is the case, we may see some clearing across
northern KS so have trended temps a little cooler across the
northern CO. Monday is shaping up to be a nice day with mostly sunny
skies and temps in the mid to upper 80s. Weak subsidence is
anticipated through the day as northwest flow develops behind the
shortwave.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

Monday night through Wednesday...Flow aloft transitions from
northwest Monday night to westerly as the upper ridge builds
eastward into the middle of the week.  Little to no forcing for lift
indicated so have kept this period dry in the forecast.
Temperatures will be above normal for early to mid June with highs
approaching 90 degrees both days.

The last half of Thursday into the upcoming weekend could be another
wet period with several off and on rain chances coming back into the
overall pattern, which will be hard to time with any degree of
accuracy at this point.  Models do have some differences overall,
but seem consistent with the main feature being a mid-level trough
moving over the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region.  In
response to this feature, a surface low will likely deepen over the
Northcentral Plains and move off into the Great Lakes region as the
trough advances to the East.  Left in its wake is an associated cold
front that will likely stall out and become stationary as upper
level energy weakens but remains southwesterly.  This brings a
chance for several embedded shortwaves to move through over the
weekend, which look to have enough lift associated with them to keep
POPs at least chance.  This seems reasonable since plenty of low
level moisture will remain in place and PW values likely still
1.5-2.0 inches stretched along the lingering boundary that is
progged to be set up right through northeast KS.  Widespread severe
storms look like the lesser threat at this time with CAPE and shear
values on the lower end and flooding remaining the main concern due
to antecedent conditions already in place from the past several
weeks of flooding over the region.  Max temps will likely be in the
mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

Storms have developed along a front sliding through the area.
Still uncertain the coverage as it appears to remain isolated and
scattered. If a taf site were to get affected than a brief period
of lowered vis and gusty winds will be possible. Conditions will
otherwise improve to VFR for the remainder of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ010>012-021>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Drake/GDP
AVIATION...Sanders

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-082045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
344 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME
WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCE BETWEEN 5 PM AND 10 PM. DAMAGING WIND APPEARS
TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WHILE LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW TODAY BUT CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.

FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
MAINLY ALONG A LINE FROM ABILENE TO HOLTON AND POINTS SOUTH. MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED STREAM FLOWS WILL CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR VERY QUICKLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FALLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

RIVER FLOODING IN PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS WEEK FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
TIMING AND TRACKING OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN AND SOME ADDITIONAL FLOODING
CONCERNS TO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...MAINLY BETWEEN 5 PM AND
10 PM.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
658 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             NNW TESCOTT             39.01N 97.88W
06/07/2015  E1.00 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
659 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     HAIL             2 NNE WELLS             39.16N 97.54W
06/07/2015  E0.88 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
703 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             1 S LONGFORD            39.16N 97.33W
06/07/2015  E1.00 INCH       CLAY               KS   PUBLIC

0655 PM     HAIL             1 S TESCOTT             38.99N 97.88W
06/07/2015  E1.75 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

KSANDERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
704 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     HAIL             2 ENE TESCOTT           39.02N 97.84W
06/07/2015  E1.25 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
705 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     HAIL             WSW CULVER              38.97N 97.76W
06/07/2015  E1.50 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
712 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             NNW TESCOTT             39.01N 97.88W
06/07/2015  E1.25 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BDRAKE