Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Topeka, KS

500 
WWUS53 KTOP 080102
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
802 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

KSC085-149-177-080130-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-150608T0130Z/
SHAWNEE-POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-
802 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
JACKSON...SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND NORTHWESTERN SHAWNEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 758 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF
BELVUE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...HEN EGG SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL WAS PREVIOUSLY 
REPORTED IN WESTMORELAND WITH THIS STORM.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EMMETT...ST. MARYS AND DELIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3930 9626 3941 9613 3935 9586 3914 9598
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 289DEG 27KT 3931 9618

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

867 
WWUS53 KTOP 080112
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
812 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

KSC085-149-177-080130-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-150608T0130Z/
SHAWNEE-POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-
812 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
JACKSON...SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND NORTHWESTERN SHAWNEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 809 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EMMETT...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EMMETT AND DELIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3918 9602 3929 9613 3936 9612 3935 9586
      3918 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 285DEG 28KT 3929 9606

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

552 
WWUS53 KTOP 080122 RRA
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
822 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

KSC085-149-177-080132-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-150608T0130Z/
SHAWNEE-POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-
822 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON...
SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND NORTHWESTERN SHAWNEE COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 830 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER APPEARS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OR 
DAMAGING WINDS.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM.

LAT...LON 3918 9602 3929 9613 3936 9612 3935 9586
      3918 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 285DEG 28KT 3927 9596

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
638 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

19Z water vapor imagery shows the mid level ridge over TX has
flattened out as a northern stream shortwave propagates through SD
and NEB. At the surface, a diffuse trough axis has set up from near
Minneapolis to Holton with only some modest convergence along this
boundary. Meanwhile the airmass has become moderately unstable with
RAP and LAPS analysis showing CAPE values in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg
range. Inhibition is almost completely gone as convection has
recently formed over northwest MO.

For the late afternoon and this evening, think thunderstorms
development should continue west along the trough axis into eastern
KS, as the northern stream shortwave swings along the NEB state
line. Profiler data already shows the 850 winds veered to the west
southwest. This could lead to possible training of storms as flow
parallels the boundary. Additionally storms could become severe as
deep layer shear improves with increasing mid level winds spreading
in from the west. Main concerns remain large hail and torrential
rainfall given high PWs values. Though there could be some damaging
winds if storms congeal into small MCS. However with storm
development near the forecast area and models trending towards more
scattered convection, am thinking a large MCS with prolonged heavy
rain is a little less likely. Because of this think the flooding
risk is highest across east central KS ahead of the trough axis.
Have adjusted the watch to remove a few counties in north central
KS. Everything may be more progressive with precip coming to an end
before dawn. If this is the case, we may see some clearing across
northern KS so have trended temps a little cooler across the
northern CO. Monday is shaping up to be a nice day with mostly sunny
skies and temps in the mid to upper 80s. Weak subsidence is
anticipated through the day as northwest flow develops behind the
shortwave.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

Monday night through Wednesday...Flow aloft transitions from
northwest Monday night to westerly as the upper ridge builds
eastward into the middle of the week.  Little to no forcing for lift
indicated so have kept this period dry in the forecast.
Temperatures will be above normal for early to mid June with highs
approaching 90 degrees both days.

The last half of Thursday into the upcoming weekend could be another
wet period with several off and on rain chances coming back into the
overall pattern, which will be hard to time with any degree of
accuracy at this point.  Models do have some differences overall,
but seem consistent with the main feature being a mid-level trough
moving over the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region.  In
response to this feature, a surface low will likely deepen over the
Northcentral Plains and move off into the Great Lakes region as the
trough advances to the East.  Left in its wake is an associated cold
front that will likely stall out and become stationary as upper
level energy weakens but remains southwesterly.  This brings a
chance for several embedded shortwaves to move through over the
weekend, which look to have enough lift associated with them to keep
POPs at least chance.  This seems reasonable since plenty of low
level moisture will remain in place and PW values likely still
1.5-2.0 inches stretched along the lingering boundary that is
progged to be set up right through northeast KS.  Widespread severe
storms look like the lesser threat at this time with CAPE and shear
values on the lower end and flooding remaining the main concern due
to antecedent conditions already in place from the past several
weeks of flooding over the region.  Max temps will likely be in the
mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

Storms have developed along a front sliding through the area.
Still uncertain the coverage as it appears to remain isolated and
scattered. If a taf site were to get affected than a brief period
of lowered vis and gusty winds will be possible. Conditions will
otherwise improve to VFR for the remainder of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ010>012-021>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Drake/GDP
AVIATION...Sanders

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-082045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
344 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME
WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCE BETWEEN 5 PM AND 10 PM. DAMAGING WIND APPEARS
TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WHILE LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW TODAY BUT CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.

FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
MAINLY ALONG A LINE FROM ABILENE TO HOLTON AND POINTS SOUTH. MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED STREAM FLOWS WILL CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR VERY QUICKLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FALLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

RIVER FLOODING IN PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS WEEK FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
TIMING AND TRACKING OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN AND SOME ADDITIONAL FLOODING
CONCERNS TO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...MAINLY BETWEEN 5 PM AND
10 PM.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
704 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     HAIL             2 ENE TESCOTT           39.02N 97.84W
06/07/2015  E1.25 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
705 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     HAIL             WSW CULVER              38.97N 97.76W
06/07/2015  E1.50 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
712 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             NNW TESCOTT             39.01N 97.88W
06/07/2015  E1.25 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
731 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             5 E OLSBURG             39.42N 96.52W
06/07/2015  E0.88 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
737 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     HAIL             5 NW MOONLIGHT          39.05N 97.17W
06/07/2015  E2.00 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
744 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     HAIL             NNW WESTMORELAND        39.40N 96.42W
06/07/2015  E1.75 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KSANDERS