Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Topeka, KS

065 
WWUS53 KTOP 080122
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
822 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

KSC041-127-080200-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-150608T0200Z/
MORRIS-DICKINSON-
822 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
DICKINSON AND SOUTHWESTERN MORRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 819 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HERINGTON...
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURDICK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3854 9694 3861 9694 3861 9701 3866 9701
      3874 9693 3854 9653 3852 9655 3852 9691
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 310DEG 27KT 3860 9696

HAIL...2.50IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

GARGAN

826 
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
826 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

KSC041-080136-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-150608T0200Z/
DICKINSON-
826 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN DICKINSON COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3854 9694 3861 9694 3861 9693 3865 9693
      3871 9693 3854 9653 3852 9655 3852 9691
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 310DEG 27KT 3858 9693

$$

KSC127-080200-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-150608T0200Z/
MORRIS-
826 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
MORRIS COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 824 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF
HERINGTON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURDICK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3854 9694 3861 9694 3861 9693 3865 9693
      3871 9693 3854 9653 3852 9655 3852 9691
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 310DEG 27KT 3858 9693

HAIL...2.50IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

GARGAN

029 
WWUS53 KTOP 080135
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
835 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

KSC127-080200-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-150608T0200Z/
MORRIS-
835 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
MORRIS COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 833 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BURDICK...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN MORRIS COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 9687 3856 9689 3861 9689 3864 9687
      3867 9683 3854 9653 3852 9655
TIME...MOT...LOC 0134Z 295DEG 34KT 3855 9681

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

GARGAN

045 
WWUS53 KTOP 080142
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
842 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

KSC127-080200-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-150608T0200Z/
MORRIS-
842 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
MORRIS COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 838 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BURDICK...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN MORRIS COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 9681 3855 9683 3858 9683 3864 9677
      3854 9653 3852 9655
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 295DEG 34KT 3852 9672

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

GARGAN

748 
WWUS53 KTOP 080151
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
851 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

KSC127-080200-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-150608T0200Z/
MORRIS-
851 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
MORRIS COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 849 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF
WILSEY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

RURAL AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MORRIS COUNTY. 

THE MOST INTENSE PORTION 
OF THE STORM IS MOVING SOUTH OF MORRIS COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 9675 3856 9673 3858 9669 3852 9655
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 297DEG 28KT 3849 9665

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

GARGAN

065 
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
858 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

KSC127-080208-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-150608T0200Z/
MORRIS-
858 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MORRIS COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 900 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.  HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
THIS THUNDERSTORM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 3852 9675 3856 9673 3858 9669 3852 9655
TIME...MOT...LOC 0158Z 297DEG 28KT 3846 9659

$$

GARGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
638 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

19Z water vapor imagery shows the mid level ridge over TX has
flattened out as a northern stream shortwave propagates through SD
and NEB. At the surface, a diffuse trough axis has set up from near
Minneapolis to Holton with only some modest convergence along this
boundary. Meanwhile the airmass has become moderately unstable with
RAP and LAPS analysis showing CAPE values in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg
range. Inhibition is almost completely gone as convection has
recently formed over northwest MO.

For the late afternoon and this evening, think thunderstorms
development should continue west along the trough axis into eastern
KS, as the northern stream shortwave swings along the NEB state
line. Profiler data already shows the 850 winds veered to the west
southwest. This could lead to possible training of storms as flow
parallels the boundary. Additionally storms could become severe as
deep layer shear improves with increasing mid level winds spreading
in from the west. Main concerns remain large hail and torrential
rainfall given high PWs values. Though there could be some damaging
winds if storms congeal into small MCS. However with storm
development near the forecast area and models trending towards more
scattered convection, am thinking a large MCS with prolonged heavy
rain is a little less likely. Because of this think the flooding
risk is highest across east central KS ahead of the trough axis.
Have adjusted the watch to remove a few counties in north central
KS. Everything may be more progressive with precip coming to an end
before dawn. If this is the case, we may see some clearing across
northern KS so have trended temps a little cooler across the
northern CO. Monday is shaping up to be a nice day with mostly sunny
skies and temps in the mid to upper 80s. Weak subsidence is
anticipated through the day as northwest flow develops behind the
shortwave.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

Monday night through Wednesday...Flow aloft transitions from
northwest Monday night to westerly as the upper ridge builds
eastward into the middle of the week.  Little to no forcing for lift
indicated so have kept this period dry in the forecast.
Temperatures will be above normal for early to mid June with highs
approaching 90 degrees both days.

The last half of Thursday into the upcoming weekend could be another
wet period with several off and on rain chances coming back into the
overall pattern, which will be hard to time with any degree of
accuracy at this point.  Models do have some differences overall,
but seem consistent with the main feature being a mid-level trough
moving over the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region.  In
response to this feature, a surface low will likely deepen over the
Northcentral Plains and move off into the Great Lakes region as the
trough advances to the East.  Left in its wake is an associated cold
front that will likely stall out and become stationary as upper
level energy weakens but remains southwesterly.  This brings a
chance for several embedded shortwaves to move through over the
weekend, which look to have enough lift associated with them to keep
POPs at least chance.  This seems reasonable since plenty of low
level moisture will remain in place and PW values likely still
1.5-2.0 inches stretched along the lingering boundary that is
progged to be set up right through northeast KS.  Widespread severe
storms look like the lesser threat at this time with CAPE and shear
values on the lower end and flooding remaining the main concern due
to antecedent conditions already in place from the past several
weeks of flooding over the region.  Max temps will likely be in the
mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

Storms have developed along a front sliding through the area.
Still uncertain the coverage as it appears to remain isolated and
scattered. If a taf site were to get affected than a brief period
of lowered vis and gusty winds will be possible. Conditions will
otherwise improve to VFR for the remainder of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ010>012-021>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Drake/GDP
AVIATION...Sanders

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-082045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
344 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME
WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCE BETWEEN 5 PM AND 10 PM. DAMAGING WIND APPEARS
TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WHILE LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW TODAY BUT CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.

FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
MAINLY ALONG A LINE FROM ABILENE TO HOLTON AND POINTS SOUTH. MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED STREAM FLOWS WILL CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR VERY QUICKLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FALLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

RIVER FLOODING IN PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS WEEK FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
TIMING AND TRACKING OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN AND SOME ADDITIONAL FLOODING
CONCERNS TO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...MAINLY BETWEEN 5 PM AND
10 PM.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
705 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     HAIL             WSW CULVER              38.97N 97.76W
06/07/2015  E1.50 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
712 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             NNW TESCOTT             39.01N 97.88W
06/07/2015  E1.25 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
731 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             5 E OLSBURG             39.42N 96.52W
06/07/2015  E0.88 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
737 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     HAIL             5 NW MOONLIGHT          39.05N 97.17W
06/07/2015  E2.00 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
744 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     HAIL             NNW WESTMORELAND        39.40N 96.42W
06/07/2015  E1.75 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KSANDERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
757 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             15 S ABILENE            38.70N 97.21W
06/07/2015  E0.88 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   STORM CHASER

&&

KSANDERS