Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
644 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

TONIGHT:
CONVECTIVE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE MAIN CONCERN. WIND SHIFT HAS
PUSHED THROUGH ELLSWORTH...AND ALMOST TO KSLN AND KGBD...WITH
SYNOPTIC FRONT LIKELY JUST NORTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE
IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS ANTICIPATED...AND 1800 UTC
LAMONT SOUNDING SHOWING A STOUT CAP. BELIEVE ONSET OF STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT...AND GIVEN ORIENTATION
OF BOUNDARIES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOOKING BETTER EAST OF
I-35 THAN TO THE WEST. HAVE TWEAKED CHANCES ACCORDINGLY. SYSTEM ALSO
APPEARS TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL LESSEN FLOODING RISK.

MON-WED:
STILL EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING AT THE START...LIKELY
WELL EAST OF I-35...WITH QUICKER PROGRESSION TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY
1800 UTC...SUSPECT PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE THE FRONT...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT. WEAK RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ON TUE AND PERSISTS INTO WED. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS ON MON...BUT DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY
MODIFY WITH WARMUP ON TUE-WED. AT THIS PERIOD...DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK PROBABLE FROM MON AFTERNOON-WED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

CONFIDENCE STILL NOT VERY HIGH WITH WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US AND SHORTWAVE EJECTING ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF FASTER
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS LEAVES DIFFUSE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE IN THE PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE MAYBE MOVING
THROUGH SOMETIME BETWEEN THU AND FRI. SURFACE BOUNDARY STAYS HUNG
UP IN THE PLAINS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLY
RELOADING SOUTHWESTERN US TROUGH...OR MAYBE WE ARE JUST LEFT IN
A SUMMER PATTERN ON WEST SIDE OF BROAD UPPER RIDGE. WITH
MOISTURE/HEATING...MODEL CONVECTIVE SCHEMES ARE IN OVERDRIVE...
LEADING TO ROBUST POPS IN THE INITIALIZATION GRIDS. CONSENSUS WAS
TO BACK OFF..BUT STILL LIKELY OVERESTIMATING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WAVE PASSAGE ON THU-THU NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN.
SUMMER SO-CALLED AIRMASS STORMS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY ON FRI-
SAT...ESPECIALLY NEAR STALLED SURFACE FRONT POSSIBLY LOCATED
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND CURRENTLY STRETCHES JUST SOUTH OF I-70. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH.
CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH SO WILL JUST RUN WITH
VCTS IN TAFS AS THIS TIME. WINDS WILL FLIP AROUND TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH KICT AROUND
07Z AND KCNU AROUND 12Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS. THE STRONGER STORMS TONIGHT
WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  88  65  91 /  60  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      68  87  63  91 /  50  10  10  10
NEWTON          68  86  64  90 /  60  10  10  10
ELDORADO        68  86  66  89 /  60  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  88  65  90 /  60  10  10  10
RUSSELL         66  86  62  93 /  40   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      67  86  63  91 /  40  10  10  10
SALINA          67  86  63  92 /  50  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  87  63  91 /  50  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     72  87  65  89 /  50  30  10  10
CHANUTE         70  86  65  89 /  60  20  10  10
IOLA            69  85  65  89 /  60  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    71  87  65  89 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
513 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-082215-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
513 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG A COLD MOVING SOUTHEAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
THE GREATEST RISK IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-35. MINOR
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE AREA WIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS MONDAY MORNING.
THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO STRONG OR SEVERE.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR AT LEAST STRONG
STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

HOWERTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
630 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     HAIL             5 NE LINCOLN            39.09N 98.08W
06/07/2015  E0.25 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 45 MPH

&&

SGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
653 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     HAIL             2 E BEVERLY             39.01N 97.94W
06/07/2015  E1.75 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL ON THE
            LINCOLN AND OTTAWA COUNTY LINE

&&

SGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
713 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 NW SALINA             38.87N 97.68W
06/07/2015                   SALINE             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM SPOTTER REPORTED A BREIF FUNNEL CLOUD NORTHWEST OF
            SALINA

&&

SGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
719 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             5 N SALINA              38.89N 97.62W
06/07/2015  E2.00 INCH       SALINE             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
721 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             SALINA                  38.82N 97.62W
06/07/2015  E1.75 INCH       SALINE             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
725 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             1 N SALINA              38.83N 97.62W
06/07/2015  E1.75 INCH       SALINE             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGS