Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
611 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Busy day with lots of flooding, water rescues, etc. MCS from last
night into this morning brought widespread moderate to heavy rain
and 3 to 5 inches of rain over central and south central MO with
isolated amounts up to 7 inches. Scattered light rain continues in
the wake of the MCS with ongoing flooding over parts of central
and south central MO. Atmosphere has struggled to recover in areas
affected by the rainfall and cloud cover today, with readings
still in the 70s. Further west on the other side of the boundary,
temperatures have shot up into the mid 80s to around 90. 18z
sounding from SGF shows quite a bit of elevated instability and PW
values around 1.75 in. along with a low level veering wind profile.

We also have some shortwave energy dropping southeast out of the
Plains which will move into the area tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Despite morning MCS and remnant cloud cover keeping the
instability in check across the eastern 1/2 to 2/3 of the CWA,
there will still be a risk of severe storms this evening into the
overnight hours. The shortwave energy will drop southeast into the
area with increasing low level jet south of the low across
southern MO. Instability along and west of the boundary has really
increased this afternoon with surface based CAPES increasing into
the 3500-4000 j/kg range over the southwest corner of MO. In
addition, the CIN has decreased to almost nothing there. Should
have a decent amount of shear develop this evening, especially as
the shortwave begins to push into the area and low level jet
increases. Those things combined, we are thinking all modes of
severe storms will be possible initially this evening with storm
modes beginning out as supercellular. Storms are expected to form
into an MCS overnight and affect roughly the same locations which
received the heavy rain and flooding last night into this morning.
With an additional widespread 1-2 inches over these same locations
we can expect additional flash flooding to occur and will keep the
flash flood watch going through 12z Thursday for the same
locations.

Rain should come to an end during the morning Thursday with
additional development possible south of highway 60 over southern
Missouri on Thursday afternoon. There will be a slight risk of
severe storms there along and south of the boundary.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

It looks like we will remain in a northwest flow pattern with
continued shortwave energy pushing into the area through the
Holiday weekend. While the most organized convection is expected to
remain south of the area this weekend, there will remain a daily
chance of thunderstorms across the forecast area so those with
outdoor interests should stay tuned in to the forecast.

Another frontal boundary will begin to slowly work southeast into
the area early next week and will bring another more organized
round of thunderstorms. With the front possibly becoming
stationary over the area, the risk of thunderstorms will linger into the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Convection just now starting to initiate in the KC metro area and
will continue to track southeast through the evening. Have storms
rolling into the SGF/JLN areas between 02z and 04z in the TAFS
which will drop flight conditions into MVFR/IFR for several hours
during the late evening into the overnight hours. Winds will
gradually veer to the southwest and west overnight before becoming
northwest to north during the day Thursday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-079>083-091-092-096>098-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
823 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-030130-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
823 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A
  BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. STORMS MAY INITIALLY BE
  SUPERCELLULAR WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE...DAMAGING WIND
  GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FORM INTO ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM
  COMPLEX WHICH IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN AFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTH
  CENTRAL MISSOURI OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING AN
  ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
  WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING
  TONIGHT.

 .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S CAN BE
  EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME
  SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

  MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
  NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. STRONG TO
  SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
  INTO THURSDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE AT LEAST A
  LIMITED RISK FOR FLOODING TO END THE WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT THREE HOURS FOR
  FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR BEFORE MIDNIGHT
  AND SOUTH OF I-44 AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
949 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     HAIL             LINCOLN                 38.39N 93.33W
07/01/2015  E1.00 INCH       BENTON             MO   911 CALL CENTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN LINCOLN

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
951 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0951 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE LINCOLN            38.38N 93.32W
07/01/2015                   BENTON             MO   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODING OCCURING ON H HIGHWAY SOUTHEAST OF LINCOLN

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1006 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     TSTM WND GST     BAGNELL                 38.23N 92.60W
07/01/2015  M59 MPH          MILLER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED STORM CHASER MEASURED A 59 MPH AT THE BAGNELL
            DAM.

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1011 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WARSAW                  38.24N 93.38W
07/01/2015                   BENTON             MO   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE LARGE TREES DOWN IN WARSAW

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1017 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1016 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BARNETT                 38.38N 92.67W
07/01/2015                   MORGAN             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER FLOWING OVER HIGHWAY AA NORTH OF BARNETT. ROAD IS
            IMPASSABLE.

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1039 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W LAKE OZARK          38.20N 92.68W
07/01/2015                   CAMDEN             MO   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON CAROL ROAD

&&

BURCHFIELD