Alert archive / Missouri / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 383

July 1, 201511 counties in Kansas; 39 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jul 1, 2015, 6:03 PM CDT for 11 counties in Kansas; 39 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 1, 2015, 6:03 PM CDT (23:03 UTC)
Expired: Jul 2, 2015, 12:00 AM CDT
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 2 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 50 counties

Bourbon County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Linn County, KS, Miami County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Barton County, MO, Bates County, MO, Benton County, MO, Camden County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clay County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Greene County, MO, Henry County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Maries County, MO, Miller County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Platte County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Texas County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 37 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 20%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 20%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 60%

Warnings issued inside it

40 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 1, 6:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Jackson	51 min
Jul 1, 6:32 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Jackson	28 min
Jul 1, 6:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Johnson, Wyandotte	44 min
Jul 1, 6:54 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	EAX	Jackson	36 min
Jul 1, 7:17 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Cass, Jackson, Johnson	43 min
Jul 1, 7:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Jackson	47 min
Jul 1, 7:55 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Cass, Jackson	6 hr
Jul 1, 7:59 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Cass	31 min
Jul 1, 8:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cass, Jackson	42 min
Jul 1, 8:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Pettis	32 min
Jul 1, 8:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cass, Johnson	46 min
Jul 1, 8:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Benton, Morgan	65 min
Jul 1, 8:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Henry, Johnson, Pettis	41 min
Jul 1, 8:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Benton, Camden, Morgan	67 min
Jul 1, 8:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Pettis	39 min
Jul 1, 8:58 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Cass	32 min
Jul 1, 9:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Camden, Maries, Miller, Morgan	55 min
Jul 1, 9:15 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Miller	45 min
Jul 1, 9:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Bates, Cass	51 min
Jul 1, 9:27 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Benton, Camden, Maries, Miller, Morgan	8 hr
Jul 1, 9:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Benton, Camden, Hickory, Morgan	60 min
Jul 1, 9:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Bates, Cass	43 min
Jul 1, 9:51 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Benton, Hickory	39 min
Jul 1, 10:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Camden, Maries, Miller, Morgan, Phelps, Pulaski	58 min
Jul 1, 10:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Henry	39 min
Jul 1, 10:22 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Henry	38 min
Jul 1, 10:28 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Linn, Miami	6 hr
Jul 1, 10:28 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Benton, Hickory	47 min
Jul 1, 10:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Bates	44 min
Jul 1, 10:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	St. Clair	58 min
Jul 1, 10:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Linn, Miami	47 min
Jul 1, 10:43 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Benton, St. Clair	47 min
Jul 1, 10:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Benton, Camden, Dallas, Hickory, Laclede, Polk	57 min
Jul 1, 10:51 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Dent, Maries, Phelps, Pulaski	39 min
Jul 1, 10:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Dent, Laclede, Maries, Phelps, Pulaski, Texas	65 min
Jul 1, 11:07 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Camden, Dallas, Dent, Hickory, Laclede, Phelps and 3 more	6 hr
Jul 1, 11:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Linn	48 min
Jul 1, 11:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Bourbon	65 min
Jul 1, 11:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Cedar, Dallas, Hickory, Laclede, Polk, St. Clair and 1 more	55 min
Jul 1, 11:58 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Linn	6 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 11.1 hours before the alert went out and 133 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 105 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -377 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 900 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 101 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 358 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 1, 3:30 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barber, Comanche, Harper	3 hr
Jul 1, 3:47 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Cherokee, Coffey and 20 more	2 hr
Jul 1, 2:10 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benton, Camden, Hickory	65 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2015 Tornado Watches in Kansas, 2015 Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.