Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Kansas City, MO

July 1, 2015Bates County, Cass County, Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 1, 2015, 9:47 PM CDT for Bates County, Cass County, Missouri. It was in force for 43 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 1, 2015, 9:47 PM CDT (02:47 UTC)
Expired: Jul 1, 2015, 10:30 PM CDT
In force: 43 min
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Bates County, MO, Cass County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 54 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 1, 9:53 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	Archie, MO	3-4 6 INCH BRANCHES DOWN IN YARD FROM TRAINED SPOTTER.
Jul 1, 10:15 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	Adrian, MO	TWO LARGE TREES DOWN.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 6 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 1, 6:03 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 00:00Z, 2.8 hours before the alert went out and 139 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 844 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -77 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1888 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 7 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 72 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

327 
WUUS53 KEAX 020247
SVREAX
MOC013-037-020330-
/O.NEW.KEAX.SV.W.0176.150702T0247Z-150702T0330Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
947 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  BATES COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  SOUTHERN CASS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 945 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ARCHIE...AND
  MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
           ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ADRIAN...BUTLER...CREIGHTON...PASSAIC...BALLARD AND FOSTER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3851 9458 3853 9407 3822 9408 3821 9406
      3817 9406 3815 9455
TIME...MOT...LOC 0247Z 346DEG 25KT 3846 9435

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

BLAIR

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 1, 6:25 PM CDT, 3 hours 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 1, 6:25 PM CDT, 3 hours 22 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
625 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Tonight:

Could be a very active evening as ingredients coming together for
supercells. Airmass has been gradually recovering from eastern KS
into far west central MO from this mornings convection. Warm front
or the old outflow boundary has lifted northeast through the KC
Metro area, which the operational models had depicted further south.
This more northern displacement is allowing 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE
over east central/southeast KS to be advected into west central MO.
Certainly plenty of shear with 45kt of 0-6km shear to support
rotating updrafts. Of note is the decrease in the 0-1km shear down
to 15kt. However, the 12z and 18z NAM ramped that up to 30kt by 03z
and 06z over the far southwestern counties. Latest RUC has latched
onto the more northern location of the front with convection
initiating along the front over west central MO between 21z-23z
which is in the range of what we had been anticipating.

Should convection develop near the Missouri River as forecast the
initial activity would likely be severe and include all severe
elements. Storms should congeal into another complex of heavy rain
producing storms and likely track through the current Flash Flood
Watch.

Thursday - Friday:

The train of shortwaves embedded within the northwest flow will
continue to provide a threat for convection, more so on Thursday.
Satellite imagery showed the next upstream vorticity max dropping
southeast from southern Alberta. Weak high pressure building in from
WI into IA will help shield the eastern CWA from the majority of the
convection. Below average temperatures expected due to the
northeasterly boundary layer winds.

4th of July Weekend:

Looking like we could get away with at least one dry day, Saturday
more so than Sunday. The northwest flow will begin to flatten as an
upper trough glides across southern Canada. A gradual warmup also
expected.

Monday - Wednesday:

The unsettled and rainy pattern returns under a modified northwest
flow regime with embedded shortwaves.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Convection will be main concern this evening through around
03Z...warm front will focus these storms that will form around metro
Kansas City and continue to evolve towards the southeast through the
evening. These storms will be capable of producing isolated
tornadoes. KSTJ will have the least chance of convection as the front
is east and south of the KSTJ terminal. Rest of the evening after
storms move south and east will be VFR or MVFR overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ030>033-
     038>040-044>046-054.

&&

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Adolphson

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 1, 4:59 AM CDT, 16 hours 48 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
459 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-021000-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
459 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS
 MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

 THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
 HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 1, 9:18 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
918 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0917 PM     HEAVY RAIN       GREENWOOD               38.85N 94.34W
07/01/2015  M3.95 INCH       JACKSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED RAINFALL SINCE 7AM THIS MORNING

&&

LG

Local storm report, Jul 1, 9:24 PM CDT, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
924 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NE BELTON             38.86N 94.46W
07/01/2015                   JACKSON            MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORT OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RUNNING WATER OVER HWY 150 AT
            PETERSON RD.

&&

LG

Local storm report, Jul 1, 9:26 PM CDT, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
926 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 SW PLEASANT HILL      38.77N 94.30W
07/01/2015                   CASS               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTS SPOTTER SAW 2 FUNNEL CLOUDS ON
            BETWEEN HWY 291 AND HWY 7. THEY WERE ON HWY P AT THE
            TIME.

&&

KBRONIS

Local storm report, Jul 1, 9:29 PM CDT, 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
929 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S SMITHTON            38.65N 93.09W
07/01/2015                   PETTIS             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS 5-6 INCHES WATER OVER THE ROADWAY.

&&

KBRONIS

Local storm report, Jul 1, 9:32 PM CDT, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
932 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 W HARRISONVILLE       38.65N 94.44W
07/01/2015  E60 MPH          CASS               MO   PUBLIC

&&

CUTTER

Local storm report, Jul 1, 9:45 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
945 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0929 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 WSW GREENWOOD         38.84N 94.38W
07/01/2015                   JACKSON            MO   PUBLIC

            TWITTER REPORT OF WATER RUSHING OVER HWY 291 IN SEVERAL
            SPOTS NEAR LAKE WINNEBAGO, UP TO 6 INCHES DEEP.

&&

LG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 1, 7:07 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Lafayette	38 min
Jul 1, 7:17 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Cass, Jackson, Johnson	43 min
Jul 1, 7:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Jackson	47 min
Jul 1, 7:55 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Cass, Jackson	6 hr
Jul 1, 7:59 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Cass	31 min
Jul 1, 8:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cass, Jackson	42 min
Jul 1, 8:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Pettis	32 min
Jul 1, 8:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cass, Johnson	46 min
Jul 1, 8:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Henry, Johnson, Pettis	41 min
Jul 1, 8:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Pettis	39 min
Jul 1, 8:58 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Cass	32 min
Jul 1, 9:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Bates, Cass	51 min
Jul 1, 10:07 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	EAX	Henry, Johnson, Pettis	16 hr
Jul 1, 10:11 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Cooper	41 hr
Jul 1, 10:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Henry	39 min
Jul 1, 10:22 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Henry	38 min
Jul 1, 10:28 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Bates, Cass	6 hr
Jul 1, 10:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Bates	44 min
Jul 1, 10:45 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Howard	31 hr
Jul 1, 11:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Bates	48 min
Jul 1, 11:58 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Bates	6 hr
Jul 2, 12:19 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Bates	41 min
Jul 2, 1:58 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	EAX	Cass, Jackson	12 hr
Jul 2, 6:46 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Bates, Cass, Henry	41 hr
Jul 2, 1:59 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	EAX	Cass	24 hr
Jul 2, 2:04 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	EAX	Pettis	24 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.