Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
625 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Tonight:

Could be a very active evening as ingredients coming together for
supercells. Airmass has been gradually recovering from eastern KS
into far west central MO from this mornings convection. Warm front
or the old outflow boundary has lifted northeast through the KC
Metro area, which the operational models had depicted further south.
This more northern displacement is allowing 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE
over east central/southeast KS to be advected into west central MO.
Certainly plenty of shear with 45kt of 0-6km shear to support
rotating updrafts. Of note is the decrease in the 0-1km shear down
to 15kt. However, the 12z and 18z NAM ramped that up to 30kt by 03z
and 06z over the far southwestern counties. Latest RUC has latched
onto the more northern location of the front with convection
initiating along the front over west central MO between 21z-23z
which is in the range of what we had been anticipating.

Should convection develop near the Missouri River as forecast the
initial activity would likely be severe and include all severe
elements. Storms should congeal into another complex of heavy rain
producing storms and likely track through the current Flash Flood
Watch.

Thursday - Friday:

The train of shortwaves embedded within the northwest flow will
continue to provide a threat for convection, more so on Thursday.
Satellite imagery showed the next upstream vorticity max dropping
southeast from southern Alberta. Weak high pressure building in from
WI into IA will help shield the eastern CWA from the majority of the
convection. Below average temperatures expected due to the
northeasterly boundary layer winds.

4th of July Weekend:

Looking like we could get away with at least one dry day, Saturday
more so than Sunday. The northwest flow will begin to flatten as an
upper trough glides across southern Canada. A gradual warmup also
expected.

Monday - Wednesday:

The unsettled and rainy pattern returns under a modified northwest
flow regime with embedded shortwaves.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Convection will be main concern this evening through around
03Z...warm front will focus these storms that will form around metro
Kansas City and continue to evolve towards the southeast through the
evening. These storms will be capable of producing isolated
tornadoes. KSTJ will have the least chance of convection as the front
is east and south of the KSTJ terminal. Rest of the evening after
storms move south and east will be VFR or MVFR overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ030>033-
     038>040-044>046-054.

&&

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Adolphson

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
459 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-021000-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
459 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS
 MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

 THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
 HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
653 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     LEE'S SUMMIT            38.91N 94.38W
07/01/2015                   JACKSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING A POSSIBLE LOWERING OF THE
            FUNNEL CLOUD IN THE UNITY VILLAGE AREA, WITH SPOTTERS IN
            THE LEES SUMMIT AIRPORT AREA AND ON VIEW HIGH AT 470

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
655 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TORNADO          LEE'S SUMMIT            38.91N 94.38W
07/01/2015                   JACKSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTING LOWERING ROTATION AT BLACKWELL
            AND SHANNODOAH LOOKING TOWARD RAYTOWN.

&&

KBRONIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
659 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TORNADO          UNITY VILLAGE           38.95N 94.40W
07/01/2015                   JACKSON            MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TORNADO CONFIRMED VIA BROADCAST MEDIA HELICOPTER FEED.
            DEBRIS AND TRANSFORMERS BLOWN.

&&

FXA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
700 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     TORNADO          LEE'S SUMMIT            38.91N 94.38W
07/01/2015                   JACKSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOWERING ROTATION REPORTED AT CHIPMAN AND RIVEROCK BY
            TRAINED SPOTTER.

&&

KBRONIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
703 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     TORNADO          LEE'S SUMMIT            38.91N 94.38W
07/01/2015                   JACKSON            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS ROTATION AT 40TH AND WOODS CHAPEL
            AND I-70 ALSO. ROTATION LOWERING.

&&

KBRONIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
707 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MOZ038-039-020045-
LAFAYETTE MO-SALINE MO-
707 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SALINE AND LAFAYETTE
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 703 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WAVERLY TO LEVASY...
AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  HIGGINSVILLE...MALTA BEND...CORDER...MAYVIEW...ALMA...BLACKBURN...
  MOUNT LEONARD AND AULLVILLE.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 31 AND 49.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS
WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3898 9321 3900 9408 3906 9411 3907 9411
      3913 9411 3924 9322
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 270DEG 17KT 3920 9344 3909 9406

AEP