Severe Thunderstorm Warning 189, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
611 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Busy day with lots of flooding, water rescues, etc. MCS from last
night into this morning brought widespread moderate to heavy rain
and 3 to 5 inches of rain over central and south central MO with
isolated amounts up to 7 inches. Scattered light rain continues in
the wake of the MCS with ongoing flooding over parts of central
and south central MO. Atmosphere has struggled to recover in areas
affected by the rainfall and cloud cover today, with readings
still in the 70s. Further west on the other side of the boundary,
temperatures have shot up into the mid 80s to around 90. 18z
sounding from SGF shows quite a bit of elevated instability and PW
values around 1.75 in. along with a low level veering wind profile.

We also have some shortwave energy dropping southeast out of the
Plains which will move into the area tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Despite morning MCS and remnant cloud cover keeping the
instability in check across the eastern 1/2 to 2/3 of the CWA,
there will still be a risk of severe storms this evening into the
overnight hours. The shortwave energy will drop southeast into the
area with increasing low level jet south of the low across
southern MO. Instability along and west of the boundary has really
increased this afternoon with surface based CAPES increasing into
the 3500-4000 j/kg range over the southwest corner of MO. In
addition, the CIN has decreased to almost nothing there. Should
have a decent amount of shear develop this evening, especially as
the shortwave begins to push into the area and low level jet
increases. Those things combined, we are thinking all modes of
severe storms will be possible initially this evening with storm
modes beginning out as supercellular. Storms are expected to form
into an MCS overnight and affect roughly the same locations which
received the heavy rain and flooding last night into this morning.
With an additional widespread 1-2 inches over these same locations
we can expect additional flash flooding to occur and will keep the
flash flood watch going through 12z Thursday for the same
locations.

Rain should come to an end during the morning Thursday with
additional development possible south of highway 60 over southern
Missouri on Thursday afternoon. There will be a slight risk of
severe storms there along and south of the boundary.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

It looks like we will remain in a northwest flow pattern with
continued shortwave energy pushing into the area through the
Holiday weekend. While the most organized convection is expected to
remain south of the area this weekend, there will remain a daily
chance of thunderstorms across the forecast area so those with
outdoor interests should stay tuned in to the forecast.

Another frontal boundary will begin to slowly work southeast into
the area early next week and will bring another more organized
round of thunderstorms. With the front possibly becoming
stationary over the area, the risk of thunderstorms will linger into the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Convection just now starting to initiate in the KC metro area and
will continue to track southeast through the evening. Have storms
rolling into the SGF/JLN areas between 02z and 04z in the TAFS
which will drop flight conditions into MVFR/IFR for several hours
during the late evening into the overnight hours. Winds will
gradually veer to the southwest and west overnight before becoming
northwest to north during the day Thursday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-079>083-091-092-096>098-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1152 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-030500-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1152 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
  ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS OVERNIGHT. FREQUENT LIGHTNING
  AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.
  SOME STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH
  AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS. THERE IS ALSO A
  LIMITED THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

  FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN
  OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
  OVER THE SAME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S CAN BE
  EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME
  SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

  MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
  NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. STRONG TO
  SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
  INTO THURSDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE AT LEAST A
  LIMITED RISK FOR FLOODING TO END THE WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH
  OF A TRUMAN LAKE TO FORT LEONARD WOOD LINE.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1146 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WARSAW                  38.24N 93.38W
07/01/2015                   BENTON             MO   911 CALL CENTER

            ONGOING WATER RESCUES IN WARSAW

&&

BURCHFIELD

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1202 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     TSTM WND DMG     IBERIA                  38.09N 92.29W
07/01/2015                   MILLER             MO   PUBLIC

            REPORTS OF NUMEROUS TREES AND LARGE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN ON
            FAIRVIEW AND SEQUOIA ROAD IN IBERIA.

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1209 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BRINKTOWN               38.13N 92.07W
07/02/2015                   MARIES             MO   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED INCLUDING HIGHWAY 133, DD, BB AND T
            DUE TO FLOODING

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1223 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DIXON                   37.99N 92.09W
07/01/2015                   PULASKI            MO   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS TREES REPORTED BLOWN DOWN AROUND DIXON.

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1227 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WNW LEBANON           37.70N 92.71W
07/02/2015                   LACLEDE            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 64 AT GOODWIN HOLLOW BRIDGE IS CLOSED DUE TO 2
            FEET OF WATER OVER THE ROAD.

&&

MGRIFFIN