Areal Flood Warning 18, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
611 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT THE GREATEST IMPACTS TO AVIATION AT TERMINALS ACROSS COASTAL
AL AND THE W FL PANHANDLE...WHERE IFR CIGS (AT BEST) WILL LIKELY BE
SEEN THROUGH 25/1800 UTC BEFORE POSSIBLY APPROACHING LOW-END MVFR
TERRITORY. CIGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER FARTHER INLAND...BUT WILL
STILL LIKELY DROP INTO IFR TERRITORY OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF FG WILL
ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 25/0300-0600 UTC...SPREADING
INLAND TO (MAINLY) COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. THESE VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE A BIT BY MID-MORNING CHRISTMAS. LOWER VSBYS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL AT AIRPORTS CLOSE TO SHALLOWER BAYS/INLAND WATERWAYS DUE TO
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF MARINE FOG. /02/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY/...THE WIDESPREAD AND LONG
DURATION OF THE RAINFALL EVENT HAS RESULTED IN MANY FLOODING ISSUES
ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AL. WE HAVE SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT BASED OFF
OF REPORTS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AS THIS INUNDATION WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. IF TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL
COMMENCES IN AN AREA ONCE AGAIN...WE WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING TO HANDLE THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID WATER RISES. REGARDING
RAIN CHANCES...THE OVERALL AXIS OF RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST
AND THE BEST ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTING EAST. HOWEVER...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA IS FUELING MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. THEREFORE...THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MANY AREA RIVERS ARE ALSO IN OR FORECAST TO
REACH FLOOD STAGE. THE BIG ESCAMBIA CREEK AT FLOMATON IS FORECAST TO
NOW REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. PLEASE REFER TO WATER.WEATHER.GOV FOR
THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST INFORMATION.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR COASTAL
AL/NW FL. PLEASE BE CAUTIOUS IF DRIVING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR
ANY BAYS AND SOUNDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. IN FACT...CHRISTMAS MORNING MAY BE THE
WARMEST ON RECORD (WARMEST CHRISTMAS MORNING ON RECORD IN MOBILE IS
69 IN 1987 AND FOR PENSACOLA 67 IN 1987).

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
DESPITE THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING...THE PRESENCE OF SUCH
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH
LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80...WHICH WOULD BE RECORD SETTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. 34/JFB

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...UPPER RIDGING
CONTINUES OVER THE FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY WELL
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA LIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA.
THIS GENERAL TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY BEFORE THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A LARGE UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO WESTERN
TEXAS. WITH THIS...THE FCST AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
PATCHY FOG TO OCNLY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A
POSSIBILITY... ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS
TEXAS...WITH THE BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROF TO OUR WEST BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER EASTERN
TEXAS OR WESTERN LOUSIANA AND CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BEGIN AN UPTICK
FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING OR REACHING RECORD LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...AND EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA. 12/DS

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
LIFT UP ACROSS ARKANSAS AND THEN NORTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DELTA AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT TO FINALLY
SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY. WITH THE ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE ALSO LIFTING
FROM ARK-LA-TEX REGION TO KENTUCKY MONDAY...THERE WILL SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION WITH RESULTANT LIFT. IN ADDITION...
SOME MODEL DATA INDICATES AT LEAST A 40 TO 50 KNOT (MAYBE UP TO 60
KNOT) 850MB JET APPROACHING WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA
MONDAY...COMBINED SBCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AS WELL. THE PATTERN
SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY ON MONDAY...AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. LIKELY POPS ON MONDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. FINALLY GET SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF
THE MONDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH LOW COOLING FROM THE 50S TO THE 40S
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS COOL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAYAND
THURSDAY. 12/DS

MARINE...DENSE FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHICH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL NEAR SHORE AND INLAND WATERS UNTIL NOON FRIDAY MAY HAVE TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND.

OTHERWISE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE FURTHER BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT STRONG STORM SYSTEM. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. 34/JFB

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR ALZ263>266.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR FLZ201>206.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-655.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB

BUTTS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
330 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-252130-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
330 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXTENSIVE FLOODING IS OCCURRING OVER
INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS
EVENING MAY EXACERBATE SOME OF THE FLOODING. THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY ALONG COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA TONIGHT.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM BY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY ANY
REPORTS OF FLOODING.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-252130-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
330 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT THE INSHORE BAYS AND SOUNDS AND THE
NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY.
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREA WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
319 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     FLOOD            MONROEVILLE             31.53N 87.32W
12/24/2015                   MONROE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW ROADS CLOSED IN AROUND MONROEVILLE DUE TO FLOODING.
            FLOODING MOST PREVALENT IN LOW LYING LOCATIONS AND WAS
            ENTERING A FEW HOMES.

0200 PM     FLOOD            GREENVILLE              31.83N 86.62W
12/24/2015                   BUTLER             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS ROADS ARE REPORTED CLOSED IN BUTLER COUNTY DUE
            TO FLOODING

0245 PM     FLOOD            ANDALUSIA               31.31N 86.48W
12/24/2015                   COVINGTON          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED IN COVINGTON COUNTY DUE TO
            FLOODING.

&&

JFB