Alert archive / Georgia / Special Weather Statements in 2015

Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

November 2, 201516 counties in Georgia

NWS Atlanta, GA issued this special weather statement at Nov 2, 2015, 7:29 AM EST for 16 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 61 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 2, 2015, 7:29 AM EST (12:29 UTC)
Expired: Nov 2, 2015, 8:30 AM EST
In force: 61 min
Issued by: NWS Atlanta, GA

Counties Barrow County, GA, Clarke County, GA, Clayton County, GA, Cobb County, GA, Coweta County, GA, DeKalb County, GA, Fayette County, GA, Fulton County, GA, Gwinnett County, GA, Henry County, GA, Jackson County, GA, Newton County, GA, Oconee County, GA, Rockdale County, GA, Spalding County, GA, Walton County, GA

The radar

The Atlanta radar (KFFC), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Charleston AFB, SC (KCHS), launched 12:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 359 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 140 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -23 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 666 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 108 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 143 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Atlanta, GA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Nov 2, 6:40 AM EST, 49 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 2, 6:40 AM EST, 49 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
640 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015

...FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF NORTH
AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA ALONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FOR
CENTRAL GEORGIA...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER EAST TX THIS MORNING FORECAST TO PULL NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. CONTINUOUS FEED OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
SYSTEM WEAKENS AND PUSHES TO THE EAST. THE NORTH REMAINS IN A WEDGE
PATTERN WHILE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT PERSISTS VICINITY OF CENTRAL
GA. MODELS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT MAY BE ALMOST STATIONARY AND THE
WEDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. ENOUGH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY EXIST IN THE WARM FRONT AREA TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG OR
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES...BUT
IN GENERAL HAVE KEPT A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE TODAY MAINLY NORTH WITH
SOME WARMING FOR TUESDAY. BOTH NAM AND GFS SEEM TO KEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY AS WE CONTINUE WITH AN
EASTERLY FLOW. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS FOR THAT AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...DRYING FOR MUCH OF WEST AND
NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

41

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO MIDWEEK
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AGAINST A HYBRID CAD WEDGE. WEAKENING WEDGE BY THURSDAY SO HAVE
MOSTLY DRY. NEXT MAIN SYSTEM IS COMING INTO SOME BETTER CONSENSUS
AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH A LESS PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM
THE NW. STILL GETTING PRETTY ELONGATED IN THE MOISTURE FIELD AND
REMOVED FROM GOOD DYNAMICS. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY DRAG
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA LATE FRIDAY INTO POSSIBLY SUNDAY SO
HAVE TRENDED MAINLY HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY AND LINGER POPS
AT END OF PERIOD BASED ON PREVIOUS INCONSISTENCIES IN TIMING.
PROGGED INSTABILITY IS RATHER MODEST BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER. TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMS WITH
MANY AREAS HAVING HIGHS OF LOW TO MID 70S THEN COOLING BACK DOWN
BY SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

BAKER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE AREAS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GA HAVE ALREADY HAD RECENT
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...PORTIONS MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3
INTO THIS EVENING AS ABNORMALLY EFFICIENT GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD. TRAINING CELLS MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE
MAY END UP DROPPING LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THIS
MORNING AND ALSO LATER TODAY WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND INTERACTIONS ALONG A LIFTING WARM/WEDGE FRONT. HAVE
EXPANDED THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH INTO PARTS OF THE FAR NE AND MORE
OF WEST CENTRAL GA. KEPT TIMING THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS EAST
AROUND 10KT WITH SOME GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
THUNDER POSSILBE MOST ANYWHERE. KCSG AND KMCN HAVE A CHANCE OF
SOUTH WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ALSO SOME MVFR CEILINGS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  59  67  58 /  90  20  20  20
ATLANTA         69  60  68  59 / 100  10  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     64  55  69  54 / 100  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    67  59  69  58 / 100  20  10  10
COLUMBUS        76  64  74  63 / 100  10  10  20
GAINESVILLE     64  58  66  57 / 100  20  10  20
MACON           79  64  72  62 /  90  20  20  20
ROME            68  59  70  58 / 100  20   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  71  59  69  59 / 100  10  10  10
VIDALIA         85  69  77  66 /  70  60  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...
FAYETTE...FORSYTH...GILMER...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH
FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...
PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...
SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...
TOWNS...TROUP...UNION...UPSON...WALTON...WEBSTER...WHITE...
WILKES.

&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...41

Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 2, 4:57 AM EST, 2 hours 32 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
457 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-031000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
457 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
INTO THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL
GEORGIA. DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. TREES MAY DOWN MORE
EASILY WITH ALREADY WET SOILS.

DISCUSSION...

SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN ONE TO THREE INCHES RECENTLY...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS
EASTWARD BY TONIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH INTO
PARTS OF THE FAR NORTHEAST AND MORE OF WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA. INCREASING
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ITS ORIENTATION
TO STORM DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Nov 2, 6:25 AM EST, 1 hour 4 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
625 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015

GAZ022-032>034-043>045-053>055-057-021230-
DEKALB GA-HENRY GA-COBB GA-NORTH FULTON GA-SOUTH FULTON GA-
CLAYTON GA-GWINNETT GA-COWETA GA-FAYETTE GA-DOUGLAS GA-FORSYTH GA-
625 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DEKALB...NORTHWESTERN HENRY...
COBB...NORTH FULTON...SOUTH FULTON...CLAYTON...GWINNETT...
NORTHWESTERN COWETA...NORTHERN FAYETTE...DOUGLAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
FORSYTH COUNTIES UNTIL 730 AM EST...

AT 623 AM EST...A LINE OF STORMS DUMPING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER WAS EXTENDING FROM NEAR CHATTAHOOCHEE HILL COUNTRY
TO JONESBORO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

  HAZARD...HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
           IS LIKELY. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR
           POSSIBLE LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER
           COVERS THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
ATLANTA...MARIETTA...DOUGLASVILLE...LAWRENCEVILLE...DECATUR...
FAYETTEVILLE...CUMMING...JONESBORO...SANDY SPRINGS...ROSWELL...JOHNS
CREEK...ALPHARETTA...SMYRNA...DUNWOODY...PEACHTREE CITY...EAST
POINT...MILTON...KENNESAW...DULUTH AND STOCKBRIDGE.

LAT...LON 3352 8482 3355 8483 3357 8481 3358 8486
      3405 8457 3407 8442 3410 8442 3421 8409
      3419 8405 3417 8406 3408 8384 3400 8387
      3395 8381 3385 8389 3372 8406 3362 8411
      3364 8418 3357 8414 3344 8425 3344 8493
TIME...MOT...LOC 1123Z 213DEG 57KT 3352 8483 3353 8433

Special weather statement, Nov 2, 7:29 AM EST, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
729 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015

GAZ021>025-032>037-043>048-053>057-021330-
DEKALB GA-COBB GA-NORTH FULTON GA-SOUTH FULTON GA-OCONEE GA-
NEWTON GA-CLAYTON GA-GWINNETT GA-ROCKDALE GA-FAYETTE GA-JACKSON GA-
FORSYTH GA-HALL GA-WALTON GA-HENRY GA-SPALDING GA-COWETA GA-
BARROW GA-BANKS GA-CLARKE GA-CHEROKEE GA-DOUGLAS GA-
729 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DEKALB...COBB...NORTH FULTON...
SOUTH FULTON...OCONEE...NEWTON...CLAYTON...GWINNETT...ROCKDALE...
FAYETTE...JACKSON...SOUTHERN FORSYTH...SOUTHERN HALL...WALTON...
HENRY...SPALDING...COWETA...BARROW...SOUTHEASTERN BANKS...CLARKE...
SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 830 AM
EST...

AT 726 AM EST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
EXTENDED FROM NEWNAN TO ATLANTA...WINDER AND ATHENS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

  HAZARD...HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
           IS LIKELY AS MINOR STREET FLOODING. MOTORISTS SHOULD
           SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOSS OF CONTROL
           DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD
           REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DO NOT DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
ATLANTA...MARIETTA...NEWNAN...DOUGLASVILLE...LAWRENCEVILLE...
GRIFFIN...MCDONOUGH...DECATUR...FAYETTEVILLE...CONYERS...WINDER...
MONROE...COVINGTON...JEFFERSON...COMMERCE...CUMMING...JONESBORO...
WATKINSVILLE...ATHENS AND SANDY SPRINGS.

LAT...LON 3419 8449 3423 8335 3420 8340 3416 8336
      3405 8339 3400 8326 3391 8324 3381 8330
      3374 8329 3370 8340 3382 8351 3359 8369
      3349 8367 3344 8382 3337 8386 3345 8393
      3330 8410 3318 8416 3324 8494
TIME...MOT...LOC 1226Z 246DEG 54KT 3418 8386 3328 8478

The office that day

Everything else NWS Atlanta, GA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 1, 7:39 PM EST	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Wilcox	36 min
Nov 2, 6:25 AM EST	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Clayton, Cobb, DeKalb, Douglas, Fulton, Gwinnett	65 min
Nov 2, 7:52 AM EST	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Harris	38 min
Nov 2, 8:00 AM EST	River Flood Warning	FFC	Forsyth	22 hr
Nov 2, 8:03 AM EST	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Troup	27 min
Nov 2, 8:24 AM EST	River Flood Warning	FFC	DeKalb, Fulton	13 hr
Nov 2, 8:24 AM EST	River Flood Warning	FFC	DeKalb, Fulton	12 hr
Nov 2, 8:24 AM EST	River Flood Warning	FFC	DeKalb, Fulton	13 hr
Nov 2, 8:24 AM EST	River Flood Warning	FFC	Gwinnett	13 hr
Nov 2, 8:37 AM EST	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Harris	38 min
Nov 2, 8:40 AM EST	Areal Flood Warning	FFC	Banks, Barrow, Clayton, DeKalb, Fayette, Forsyth and 4 more	12 hr
Nov 2, 9:27 AM EST	River Flood Warning	FFC	Gwinnett	27 hr
Nov 2, 9:27 AM EST	River Flood Warning	FFC	Clayton, Fayette, Spalding	48 hr
Nov 2, 9:27 AM EST	River Flood Warning	FFC	DeKalb, Rockdale	29 hr
Nov 2, 9:27 AM EST	River Flood Warning	FFC	Newton, Rockdale	43 hr
Nov 2, 9:27 AM EST	River Flood Warning	FFC	Barrow, Jackson	43 hr
Nov 2, 9:27 AM EST	River Flood Warning	FFC	Clarke, Greene, Oconee	4 days
Nov 2, 9:44 AM EST	River Flood Warning	FFC	Gwinnett, Walton	15 hr
Nov 2, 9:52 AM EST	River Flood Warning	FFC	DeKalb, Fulton	8 hr
Nov 2, 9:52 AM EST	River Flood Warning	FFC	DeKalb	13 hr
Nov 2, 12:01 PM EST	River Flood Warning	FFC	Dawson, Forsyth	13 hr
Nov 2, 1:37 PM EST	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Sumter	38 min
Nov 2, 2:02 PM EST	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Dooly	28 min
Nov 2, 2:21 PM EST	River Flood Warning	FFC	Elbert, Madison, Oglethorpe	26 hr
Nov 2, 2:56 PM EST	River Flood Warning	FFC	Carroll, Coweta, Heard	42 hr
Nov 2, 3:03 PM EST	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Pulaski	27 min
Nov 2, 3:59 PM EST	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Bleckley	31 min
Nov 2, 4:00 PM EST	Tornado Warning	FFC	Telfair	30 min
Nov 2, 4:07 PM EST	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Montgomery	23 min
Nov 2, 4:27 PM EST	Tornado Warning	FFC	Telfair, Wheeler	33 min
Nov 2, 4:31 PM EST	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Washington	29 min
Nov 2, 4:51 PM EST	River Flood Warning	FFC	Butts, Henry, Newton	25 hr
Nov 2, 4:51 PM EST	River Flood Warning	FFC	Newton, Rockdale	24 hr
Nov 2, 4:59 PM EST	Tornado Warning	FFC	Montgomery, Toombs, Wheeler	46 min
Nov 2, 5:44 PM EST	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Toombs	16 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Georgia, 2015 Every special weather statement in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.