Areal Flood Warning 5, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
640 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015

...FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF NORTH
AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA ALONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FOR
CENTRAL GEORGIA...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER EAST TX THIS MORNING FORECAST TO PULL NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. CONTINUOUS FEED OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
SYSTEM WEAKENS AND PUSHES TO THE EAST. THE NORTH REMAINS IN A WEDGE
PATTERN WHILE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT PERSISTS VICINITY OF CENTRAL
GA. MODELS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT MAY BE ALMOST STATIONARY AND THE
WEDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. ENOUGH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY EXIST IN THE WARM FRONT AREA TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG OR
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES...BUT
IN GENERAL HAVE KEPT A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE TODAY MAINLY NORTH WITH
SOME WARMING FOR TUESDAY. BOTH NAM AND GFS SEEM TO KEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY AS WE CONTINUE WITH AN
EASTERLY FLOW. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS FOR THAT AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...DRYING FOR MUCH OF WEST AND
NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

41

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO MIDWEEK
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AGAINST A HYBRID CAD WEDGE. WEAKENING WEDGE BY THURSDAY SO HAVE
MOSTLY DRY. NEXT MAIN SYSTEM IS COMING INTO SOME BETTER CONSENSUS
AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH A LESS PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM
THE NW. STILL GETTING PRETTY ELONGATED IN THE MOISTURE FIELD AND
REMOVED FROM GOOD DYNAMICS. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY DRAG
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA LATE FRIDAY INTO POSSIBLY SUNDAY SO
HAVE TRENDED MAINLY HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY AND LINGER POPS
AT END OF PERIOD BASED ON PREVIOUS INCONSISTENCIES IN TIMING.
PROGGED INSTABILITY IS RATHER MODEST BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER. TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMS WITH
MANY AREAS HAVING HIGHS OF LOW TO MID 70S THEN COOLING BACK DOWN
BY SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

BAKER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE AREAS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GA HAVE ALREADY HAD RECENT
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...PORTIONS MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3
INTO THIS EVENING AS ABNORMALLY EFFICIENT GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD. TRAINING CELLS MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE
MAY END UP DROPPING LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THIS
MORNING AND ALSO LATER TODAY WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND INTERACTIONS ALONG A LIFTING WARM/WEDGE FRONT. HAVE
EXPANDED THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH INTO PARTS OF THE FAR NE AND MORE
OF WEST CENTRAL GA. KEPT TIMING THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS EAST
AROUND 10KT WITH SOME GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
THUNDER POSSILBE MOST ANYWHERE. KCSG AND KMCN HAVE A CHANCE OF
SOUTH WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ALSO SOME MVFR CEILINGS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  59  67  58 /  90  20  20  20
ATLANTA         69  60  68  59 / 100  10  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     64  55  69  54 / 100  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    67  59  69  58 / 100  20  10  10
COLUMBUS        76  64  74  63 / 100  10  10  20
GAINESVILLE     64  58  66  57 / 100  20  10  20
MACON           79  64  72  62 /  90  20  20  20
ROME            68  59  70  58 / 100  20   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  71  59  69  59 / 100  10  10  10
VIDALIA         85  69  77  66 /  70  60  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...
FAYETTE...FORSYTH...GILMER...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH
FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...
PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...
SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...
TOWNS...TROUP...UNION...UPSON...WALTON...WEBSTER...WHITE...
WILKES.

&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...41

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
457 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-031000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
457 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
INTO THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL
GEORGIA. DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. TREES MAY DOWN MORE
EASILY WITH ALREADY WET SOILS.

DISCUSSION...

SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN ONE TO THREE INCHES RECENTLY...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS
EASTWARD BY TONIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH INTO
PARTS OF THE FAR NORTHEAST AND MORE OF WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA. INCREASING
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ITS ORIENTATION
TO STORM DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
625 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015

GAZ022-032>034-043>045-053>055-057-021230-
DEKALB GA-HENRY GA-COBB GA-NORTH FULTON GA-SOUTH FULTON GA-
CLAYTON GA-GWINNETT GA-COWETA GA-FAYETTE GA-DOUGLAS GA-FORSYTH GA-
625 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DEKALB...NORTHWESTERN HENRY...
COBB...NORTH FULTON...SOUTH FULTON...CLAYTON...GWINNETT...
NORTHWESTERN COWETA...NORTHERN FAYETTE...DOUGLAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
FORSYTH COUNTIES UNTIL 730 AM EST...

AT 623 AM EST...A LINE OF STORMS DUMPING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER WAS EXTENDING FROM NEAR CHATTAHOOCHEE HILL COUNTRY
TO JONESBORO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

  HAZARD...HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
           IS LIKELY. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR
           POSSIBLE LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER
           COVERS THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
ATLANTA...MARIETTA...DOUGLASVILLE...LAWRENCEVILLE...DECATUR...
FAYETTEVILLE...CUMMING...JONESBORO...SANDY SPRINGS...ROSWELL...JOHNS
CREEK...ALPHARETTA...SMYRNA...DUNWOODY...PEACHTREE CITY...EAST
POINT...MILTON...KENNESAW...DULUTH AND STOCKBRIDGE.

LAT...LON 3352 8482 3355 8483 3357 8481 3358 8486
      3405 8457 3407 8442 3410 8442 3421 8409
      3419 8405 3417 8406 3408 8384 3400 8387
      3395 8381 3385 8389 3372 8406 3362 8411
      3364 8418 3357 8414 3344 8425 3344 8493
TIME...MOT...LOC 1123Z 213DEG 57KT 3352 8483 3353 8433

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
729 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015

GAZ021>025-032>037-043>048-053>057-021330-
DEKALB GA-COBB GA-NORTH FULTON GA-SOUTH FULTON GA-OCONEE GA-
NEWTON GA-CLAYTON GA-GWINNETT GA-ROCKDALE GA-FAYETTE GA-JACKSON GA-
FORSYTH GA-HALL GA-WALTON GA-HENRY GA-SPALDING GA-COWETA GA-
BARROW GA-BANKS GA-CLARKE GA-CHEROKEE GA-DOUGLAS GA-
729 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DEKALB...COBB...NORTH FULTON...
SOUTH FULTON...OCONEE...NEWTON...CLAYTON...GWINNETT...ROCKDALE...
FAYETTE...JACKSON...SOUTHERN FORSYTH...SOUTHERN HALL...WALTON...
HENRY...SPALDING...COWETA...BARROW...SOUTHEASTERN BANKS...CLARKE...
SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 830 AM
EST...

AT 726 AM EST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
EXTENDED FROM NEWNAN TO ATLANTA...WINDER AND ATHENS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

  HAZARD...HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
           IS LIKELY AS MINOR STREET FLOODING. MOTORISTS SHOULD
           SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOSS OF CONTROL
           DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD
           REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DO NOT DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
ATLANTA...MARIETTA...NEWNAN...DOUGLASVILLE...LAWRENCEVILLE...
GRIFFIN...MCDONOUGH...DECATUR...FAYETTEVILLE...CONYERS...WINDER...
MONROE...COVINGTON...JEFFERSON...COMMERCE...CUMMING...JONESBORO...
WATKINSVILLE...ATHENS AND SANDY SPRINGS.

LAT...LON 3419 8449 3423 8335 3420 8340 3416 8336
      3405 8339 3400 8326 3391 8324 3381 8330
      3374 8329 3370 8340 3382 8351 3359 8369
      3349 8367 3344 8382 3337 8386 3345 8393
      3330 8410 3318 8416 3324 8494
TIME...MOT...LOC 1226Z 246DEG 54KT 3418 8386 3328 8478

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
752 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015

GAZ078-089-021330-
MUSCOGEE GA-HARRIS GA-
752 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015

AT 752 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER BLEECKER...OR NEAR SMITHS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND AND ENHANCED RISK OF A BRIEF TORNADO.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. WHILE
           WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND
           BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS...THE LEADING
           EDGE OF THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS ALSO EXHIBITED AREAS OF
           LOCALIZED ROTATION. A BRIEF TORNADO COULD QUICKLY FORM.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
HAMILTON...GOAT ROCK LAKE...MOUNTAIN HILL...WHITESVILLE-PINE LAKE...
BARTLETTS FERRY DAM...CATAULA...MULBERRY GROVE...FORTSON AND LAKE
HARDING.

LAT...LON 3273 8511 3274 8512 3287 8503 3287 8496
      3273 8473 3253 8502 3259 8508 3262 8509
      3263 8508 3264 8510 3264 8511 3266 8509
      3269 8512 3271 8512
TIME...MOT...LOC 1252Z 222DEG 51KT 3257 8513

KOVACIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
803 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015

GAZ066-078-021330-
HARRIS GA-TROUP GA-
803 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015

AT 802 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER RIVER VIEW...OR NEAR VALLEY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND AND ENHANCED RISK OF A BRIEF TORNADO.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. WHILE
           WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND
           BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS...THE LEADING
           EDGE OF THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS ALSO EXHIBITED AREAS OF
           LOCALIZED ROTATION. A BRIEF TORNADO COULD QUICKLY FORM.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
WEST POINT...BAUGHS CROSSROADS...PIEDMONT HEIGHTS...JONES
CROSSROADS...WHITESVILLE-PINE LAKE...CANNONVILLE...LONG CANE AND
SOUTHERN HARBOR.

LAT...LON 3301 8520 3292 8493 3275 8511 3276 8514
      3278 8512 3281 8517 3283 8517 3285 8515
      3286 8519 3297 8521
TIME...MOT...LOC 1302Z 229DEG 31KT 3278 8510

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
837 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015

GAZ066-078-079-089-021415-
MUSCOGEE GA-HARRIS GA-TALBOT GA-TROUP GA-
837 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015

AT 837 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR BIBB CITY...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF SMITHS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND AND ENHANCED RISK OF A BRIEF SPIN UP.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. WHILE
           WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND
           BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS...THE LEADING
           EDGE OF THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS ALSO EXHIBITED AREAS OF
           LOCALIZED ROTATION. A BRIEF TORNADO COULD QUICKLY FORM.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
HAMILTON...PINE MOUNTAIN...WAVERLY HALL...GOAT ROCK LAKE...BAUGHS
CROSSROADS...JONES CROSSROADS...MOUNTAIN HILL...GREEN ISLAND HILLS...
BARTLETTS FERRY DAM...MULBERRY GROVE...FORTSON...LAKE HARDING...F.D.
ROOSEVELT STATE PARK...ELLERSLIE...COLUMBUS METROPOLITAN AIRPORT...
WHITESVILLE-PINE LAKE...CATAULA...LAUREL HILLS...MIDLAND AND FLAT
ROCK.

LAT...LON 3294 8503 3288 8486 3287 8486 3287 8482
      3280 8462 3262 8473 3249 8497 3262 8509
      3263 8508 3264 8511 3266 8509 3269 8512
      3272 8512 3274 8511 3274 8512
TIME...MOT...LOC 1337Z 239DEG 49KT 3260 8498