Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
135 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 344 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015/
SHORTWAVE SITUATED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
GEORGIA TODAY. THIS WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AROUND
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE FELT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES GREATLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE. HI RES MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT IN
TERMS OF TIMING...BUT OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR ACTIVITY TO INCREASE
AFTER 17-18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEN A BETTER
ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CWA AFTER
00Z...BETTER ALIGNED TIMING WISE WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. INSTABILITY IS STILL PROGGED AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 2500
J/KG WHILE SHEAR IS MORE MARGINAL. STILL ENOUGH POTENTIAL WITH THE
DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND THE INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE NORTH
OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO DUBLIN AND SPC HAS ALMOST THE WHOLE CWA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING
WIND.

PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER AROUND CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR FRIDAY AND AS
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL ALSO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR FRIDAY WITH
THE FRONT WITH SUSTAINED VALUES AROUND 10-15MPH...BUT STILL
WELL UNDER WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY WILL HELP TO MODERATE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND MOST AREAS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 80S ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN THREE DEGREES OF NORMAL.

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 344 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015/
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE CWFA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN NW FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK EASTWARD FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
BY THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG
ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE CWFA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE DISSIPATING. POPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY LOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOW END SCT/ISOLD MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS AND IN THE
SOUTH. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWFA. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD SETTLED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWFA BY THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTH.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH 06Z.
MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING BETWEEN 06Z AND
09Z...CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION CURRENTLY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH 04Z...THEN
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z. SHOULD STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS 7-10KT..WITH GUSTS 14-20KT THROUGH 02Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 08-12KT AFTER 14Z. WIND GUSTS 25KT OR HIGHER POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF CONVECTION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  71  90  71 /  80  60  30  10
ATLANTA         87  72  88  73 /  80  70  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     82  68  81  63 /  80  70  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    87  71  87  69 /  80  80  20  10
COLUMBUS        90  74  92  74 /  60  50  40  10
GAINESVILLE     85  71  86  71 /  80  70  20  10
MACON           92  75  93  73 /  60  50  40  10
ROME            88  71  89  69 /  90  80  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  87  72  89  70 /  80  70  20  10
VIDALIA         93  74  93  75 /  60  50  50  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
518 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-071200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
518 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL HELP
SPARK SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
COLUMBUS TO NEAR DUBLIN. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND FUEL FOR STORMS WILL EXIST TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING EACH DAY. ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER TODAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
324 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

GAZ024-025-027-035>038-047-049-050-059-060-062030-
MADISON GA-MORGAN GA-OGLETHORPE GA-OCONEE GA-JASPER GA-GREENE GA-
BARROW GA-BANKS GA-CLARKE GA-PUTNAM GA-JACKSON GA-WALTON GA-
324 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MADISON...MORGAN...OGLETHORPE...
OCONEE...EASTERN JASPER...GREENE...SOUTHEASTERN BARROW...SOUTHEASTERN
BANKS...CLARKE...PUTNAM...JACKSON AND EASTERN WALTON COUNTIES UNTIL
430 PM EDT...

AT 324 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR MAYSVILLE TO NEAR
MONTICELLO...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
JEFFERSON...COMMERCE...EATONTON...MADISON...GREENSBORO...
WATKINSVILLE...MONTICELLO...DANIELSVILLE...LEXINGTON...ATHENS...
STATHAM...MAYSVILLE...ARCADE...NICHOLSON...UNION POINT...COMER...
WINTERVILLE...BOGART...CRAWFORD AND RUTLEDGE.

LAT...LON 3424 8334 3426 8330 3424 8317 3427 8311
      3423 8308 3417 8310 3415 8306 3405 8298
      3344 8305 3336 8316 3334 8314 3331 8315
      3328 8323 3326 8323 3326 8325 3320 8328
      3319 8369 3425 8363 3429 8336
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 269DEG 32KT 3420 8361 3323 8368

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
335 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

GAZ080-081-094-062000-
TAYLOR GA-CRAWFORD GA-PEACH GA-
335 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN TAYLOR...SOUTHEASTERN
CRAWFORD AND PEACH COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 334 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MARSHALLVILLE...OR WEST FORT
VALLEY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
FORT VALLEY...BYRON...NAKOMIS...LEE POPE...MIAMI VALLEY AND
POWERVILLE.

LAT...LON 3246 8383 3249 8388 3250 8392 3251 8392
      3251 8398 3250 8403 3251 8404 3252 8407
      3260 8409 3270 8375 3251 8377 3251 8379
      3249 8380 3245 8380 3244 8383
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 253DEG 19KT 3253 8399

16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
337 PM EDT THU AUG 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE RUSSELL           34.01N  83.69W
08/06/2015                   BARROW             GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN NORTHEAST OF RUSSELL. UNITS
            IN ROUTE AT THE TIME OF CALL. EXACT LOCATION NOT YET
            CONFIRMED

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1500582

KS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
337 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

GAZ069-079-080-062015-
TALBOT GA-UPSON GA-TAYLOR GA-
337 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TALBOT...UPSON AND
NORTHERN TAYLOR COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 337 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER THOMASTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
THOMASTON...YATESVILLE...THE ROCK...SUNSET VILLAGE...LINCOLN PARK...
PRATTSBURG...CREST...SALEM...ATWATER...LOGTOWN...SUNNYSIDE...
CARSONVILLE...HANNAHS MILL...PO BIDDY CROSSROADS...BIG LAZER CREEK
WMA...REDBONE CROSSROADS AND SPREWELL BLUFF STATE PARK.

LAT...LON 3298 8447 3300 8442 3299 8430 3300 8430
      3299 8429 3299 8412 3280 8412 3280 8415
      3269 8420 3268 8418 3268 8415 3267 8415
      3267 8450
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 265DEG 23KT 3292 8435

16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
338 PM EDT THU AUG 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW RIVERSIDE PARK    33.47N  83.96W
08/06/2015                   HENRY              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON OLD SNAPPING SHOALS RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1500583

RWILLIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
340 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

GAZ083-095-096-107-062015-
TWIGGS GA-BLECKLEY GA-HOUSTON GA-PULASKI GA-
340 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN TWIGGS...SOUTHWESTERN
BLECKLEY...SOUTHEASTERN HOUSTON AND NORTHWESTERN PULASKI COUNTIES
UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 340 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF HAWKINSVILLE...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
PERRY...COCHRAN...HAWKINSVILLE...PAULK...PULASKI STATE PRISON...
MAGNOLIA...OCMULGEE PUBLIC FISHING AREA...ROYAL...TARVERSVILLE...
GROVANIA...MOBLEY CROSSING...HAYNEVILLE...BROWNDALE...CLINCHFIELD...
BAILEYS PARK...SAND BED...COLEY STATION...PORTER AND KLONDIKE.

LAT...LON 3229 8361 3229 8369 3246 8371 3257 8338
      3231 8335 3228 8361
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 265DEG 27KT 3236 8361

16