Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
135 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 344 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015/
SHORTWAVE SITUATED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
GEORGIA TODAY. THIS WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AROUND
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE FELT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES GREATLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE. HI RES MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT IN
TERMS OF TIMING...BUT OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR ACTIVITY TO INCREASE
AFTER 17-18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEN A BETTER
ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CWA AFTER
00Z...BETTER ALIGNED TIMING WISE WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. INSTABILITY IS STILL PROGGED AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 2500
J/KG WHILE SHEAR IS MORE MARGINAL. STILL ENOUGH POTENTIAL WITH THE
DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND THE INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE NORTH
OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO DUBLIN AND SPC HAS ALMOST THE WHOLE CWA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING
WIND.

PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER AROUND CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR FRIDAY AND AS
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL ALSO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR FRIDAY WITH
THE FRONT WITH SUSTAINED VALUES AROUND 10-15MPH...BUT STILL
WELL UNDER WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY WILL HELP TO MODERATE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND MOST AREAS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 80S ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN THREE DEGREES OF NORMAL.

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 344 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015/
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE CWFA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN NW FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK EASTWARD FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
BY THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG
ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE CWFA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE DISSIPATING. POPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY LOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOW END SCT/ISOLD MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS AND IN THE
SOUTH. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWFA. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD SETTLED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWFA BY THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTH.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH 06Z.
MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING BETWEEN 06Z AND
09Z...CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION CURRENTLY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH 04Z...THEN
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z. SHOULD STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS 7-10KT..WITH GUSTS 14-20KT THROUGH 02Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 08-12KT AFTER 14Z. WIND GUSTS 25KT OR HIGHER POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF CONVECTION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  71  90  71 /  80  60  30  10
ATLANTA         87  72  88  73 /  80  70  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     82  68  81  63 /  80  70  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    87  71  87  69 /  80  80  20  10
COLUMBUS        90  74  92  74 /  60  50  40  10
GAINESVILLE     85  71  86  71 /  80  70  20  10
MACON           92  75  93  73 /  60  50  40  10
ROME            88  71  89  69 /  90  80  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  87  72  89  70 /  80  70  20  10
VIDALIA         93  74  93  75 /  60  50  50  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
518 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-071200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
518 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL HELP
SPARK SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
COLUMBUS TO NEAR DUBLIN. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND FUEL FOR STORMS WILL EXIST TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING EACH DAY. ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER TODAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
855 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

GAZ008-009-061330-
TOWNS GA-UNION GA-
855 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TOWNS AND EASTERN UNION COUNTIES
UNTIL 930 AM EDT...

AT 854 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED NEAR THE BRASSTOWN BALD VISITORS
CENTER...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HIAWASSEE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
HIAWASSEE...BRASSTOWN BALD...TRACK ROCK...MACEDONIA...MOUNTAIN
SCENE...BLUE MOUNTAIN SHELTER AND TITUS.

LAT...LON 3491 8361 3491 8363 3490 8363 3488 8366
      3483 8366 3482 8365 3481 8367 3480 8386
      3490 8389 3499 8365
TIME...MOT...LOC 1254Z 254DEG 15KT 3486 8382

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
143 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

GAZ072-082-083-061815-
TWIGGS GA-JONES GA-BIBB GA-
143 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TWIGGS...
SOUTHEASTERN JONES AND NORTHEASTERN BIBB COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 142 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PAYNE...OR NORTH MACON...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
MACON...PAYNE...PAYNE CITY...WESLEYAN...JAMES...DRY BRANCH...
FRANKLINTON...MOUNTAIN SPRINGS...GRISWOLDVILLE...POSTELL...GREENBERRY
CROSSROADS...CROSS KEYS AND ARKWRIGHT.

LAT...LON 3279 8374 3295 8372 3301 8338 3300 8338
      3291 8339 3290 8341 3288 8340 3275 8341
TIME...MOT...LOC 1742Z 269DEG 29KT 3288 8364

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
152 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

GAZ091-102-103-061830-
WEBSTER GA-MARION GA-STEWART GA-
152 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEBSTER...SOUTHEASTERN MARION AND
STEWART COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 152 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RICHLAND...OR NEAR LUMPKIN...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
LUMPKIN...PRESTON...RICHLAND...WESTON...SEMINOLE...SANFORD...
BROOKLYN...TROUTMAN...CHARLES...DRANEVILLE...CHURCH HILL...PROVIDENCE
CANYON STATE PARK...WESTVILLE...KIMBROUGH...CENTERPOINT...
LEVERETTS...DUMAS AND CHAMBLISS.

LAT...LON 3192 8468 3193 8468 3192 8469 3193 8480
      3193 8492 3195 8496 3198 8496 3198 8499
      3215 8487 3225 8443 3192 8445
TIME...MOT...LOC 1752Z 265DEG 29KT 3209 8474

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
159 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

GAZ090-091-061830-
MARION GA-CHATTAHOOCHEE GA-
159 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARION AND CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 159 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CUSSETA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
BUENA VISTA...CUSSETA...PUTNAM...BRANTLEY...RENFROE...DOYLE...
MANTA...TAZEWELL...ZELLOBEE...CHRISTOPHER...JAMESTOWN/SOUTH FORT
BENNING AND DRANEVILLE.

LAT...LON 3221 8461 3223 8462 3223 8488 3240 8490
      3241 8488 3241 8479 3243 8477 3248 8442
      3230 8440 3229 8441 3223 8441 3223 8443
      3221 8443
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 265DEG 29KT 3233 8480

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
207 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

GAZ089-061830-
MUSCOGEE GA-
207 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUSCOGEE COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM
EDT...

AT 206 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER COLUMBUS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
COLUMBUS...BIBB CITY...UPATOI...NORTH FORT BENNING...EDGEWOOD...
KENWOOD...VISTA TERRACE...FLAT ROCK...BENNING HILLS...ROSE HILL...
AVONDALE...SAND HILL...CARTER ACRES...BENNING PARK...COLUMBUS
METROPOLITAN AIRPORT...HIGHLAND PARK...BATTLE PARK...CUSTER ROAD
TERRACE...SAINT MARYS HILLS AND LAUREL HILLS.

LAT...LON 3258 8469 3256 8469 3256 8468 3253 8468
      3251 8473 3242 8477 3241 8488 3237 8496
      3238 8499 3239 8497 3241 8498 3244 8497
      3245 8500 3250 8500 3253 8502
TIME...MOT...LOC 1806Z 265DEG 29KT 3244 8497

16