River Flood Warning 36, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

577 
WGUS84 KEWX 241358
FLSEWX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
858 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Nueces River At Laguna AFFECTING Uvalde County
  
  Frio River Below Dry Frio AFFECTING Uvalde County
  
  Sabinal At Sabinal AFFECTING Uvalde County
  
  Seco Creek At Seco Creek At Rowe Ranch Near D'hanis AFFECTING Medina County
  
  Frio River Near Derby AFFECTING Frio County
  
  Hondo Creek At King Waterhole/hondo Crk @ Hwy 173 AFFECTING Medina County
  
  Nueces River Near Asherton AFFECTING Dimmit County
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC463-250203-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-150525T0203Z/
/UVAT2.1.ER.150524T0723Z.150524T0830Z.150524T1403Z.NO/
858 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

 The flood warning continues for
  the Nueces River At Laguna.
* At  8:30 AM Sunday the stage was 10.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...the river will continue to fall to below flood stage by late this 
  morning.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding reaches low water crossings on 
  Highway 55 above Barksdale on Hackberry Creek. The Nueces River crossing at 
  Barksdale is very dangerous. East of Camp Wood Farm to Market 337 crosses Camp
  Wood Creek in three places. Vehicular related drownings have occurred at all 
  these sites..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Laguna              7   10   10.4   Sun 8 AM   4.3   4.0   3.8   3.6   3.4


&&

LAT...LON 2944 10003 2945 9995 2928 9990 2914 9985
      2913 9994 2926 9998            

$$

TXC463-250758-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-150525T1030Z/
/UDET2.1.ER.150524T1226Z.000000T0000Z.150524T2230Z.NO/
858 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

 The flood warning continues for
  the Frio River Below Dry Frio.
* At  8:30 AM Sunday the stage was 13.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to fall to below flood stage by late this 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Moderate flooding reaches crop and pasture land near 
  the river. Secondary and primary roads and low bridges flood..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Dry Frio           10   12   13.9   Sun 8 AM   7.1   4.8   4.3   4.2   4.1


&&

LAT...LON 2923 9971 2929 9962 2898 9917 2876 9912
      2873 9920 2893 9924             

$$

TXC463-250758-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-150525T1323Z/
/SABT2.2.ER.150524T0441Z.150524T0645Z.150525T0123Z.NO/
858 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

 The flood warning continues for
  the Sabinal At Sabinal.
* At  8:30 AM Sunday the stage was 18.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to fall to below flood stage by this 
  evening.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Lowland flooding damages crops and floods pastureland 
  cutting off and potentially drowning livestock in low areas of the flood 
  plain. Secondary roads and low bridges flood severely as the flood wave passes
  downstream..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Sabinal            10   12   18.3   Sun 8 AM   9.1   8.2   8.0   7.8   7.6


&&

LAT...LON 2962 9956 2962 9948 2914 9941 2901 9921
      2894 9925 2910 9949             

$$

TXC325-250504-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-150525T0504Z/
/SCRT2.2.ER.150524T0423Z.150524T0530Z.150524T1704Z.NO/
858 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

 The flood warning continues for
  the Seco Creek At Seco Creek At Rowe Ranch Near D'hanis.
* At  8:15 AM Sunday the stage was 17.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...the river will continue to fall to below flood stage by this 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding impacts secondary roads and 
  low bridges making them dangerous to auto traffic. Livestock should be moved 
  from low areas of the flood plain. Lowest homes in D'Hanis are threatened..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Seco Creek At Ro   13   15   17.1   Sun 8 AM   9.1   8.3   7.7   8.0   8.0


&&

LAT...LON 2939 9931 2939 9923 2920 9921 2902 9909
      2902 9918 2920 9929             

$$

TXC325-250600-
/O.CON.KEWX.FL.W.0042.000000T0000Z-150525T0600Z/
/KWHT2.2.ER.150524T0427Z.150524T0530Z.150524T1800Z.NO/
858 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The flood warning continues for
  the Hondo Creek At King Waterhole/hondo Crk @ Hwy 173.
* At  8:00 AM Sunday the stage was 9.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise to near flood stage this afternoon.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding inundates Farm to Market 462 at
  several low crossings over Hondo Creek..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 King Waterhole/h   10   12    9.9   Sun 8 AM   6.6   5.8   5.1   5.5   5.3


&&

LAT...LON 2938 9915 2938 9905 2913 9902 2902 9909
      2902 9918 2913 9910             

$$

TXC163-250758-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0033.150525T1510Z-150528T0900Z/
/DBYT2.2.ER.150525T1510Z.150526T1200Z.150527T2100Z.NO/
858 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

 The flood warning continues for
  the Frio River Near Derby.
* At  8:30 AM Sunday the stage was 1.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by tomorrow late morning and continue to 
  rise to near 10.9 feet by Tuesday morning. The riverwill fall below flood 
  stage by Wednesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Lowland flooding below Concan to Choke Canyon 
  Reservoir floods oil well pump jacks, irrigation pumps and any equipment in 
  the lower flood plain near and above Derby..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Derby               6    6    1.1   Sun 8 AM   4.2  10.9   8.2   4.5   2.9


&&

LAT...LON 2873 9920 2876 9912 2864 9902 2864 9910


$$

TXC127-250757-
/O.CON.KEWX.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ASRT2.3.ER.150517T2256Z.150520T0700Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
858 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The flood warning continues for
  the Nueces River Near Asherton.
* At  8:30 AM Sunday the stage was 26.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue rising to near 27.2 feet by tomorrow 
  morning then begin falling.
* Impact...At 27.0 feet...Major widespread lowland flooding cuts off and 
  potentially drowns livestock above Uvalde to below Tilden. Most secondary 
  roads and low bridges near the river flood. Flow is within a foot of the 
  bottom of the Farm to Market 190 bridge and the approaches are flooded..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Asherton           18   20   26.4   Sun 8 AM  27.2  26.6  26.2  24.8  22.5


&&

LAT...LON 2848 9975 2853 9967 2847 9939 2839 9939


$$

496 
WGUS84 KEWX 250235
FLSEWX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
935 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Texas...

  Frio River Below Dry Frio AFFECTING Uvalde County
  Sabinal At Sabinal AFFECTING Uvalde County
  Seco Creek At Seco Creek At Rowe Ranch Near D'hanis AFFECTING Medina County
  Hondo Creek At King Waterhole/hondo Crk @ Hwy 173 AFFECTING Medina County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC463-250305-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-150525T1030Z/
/UDET2.2.ER.150524T1226Z.150524T1515Z.150524T1857Z.NO/
935 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The flood warning is cancelled for the Frio River Below Dry Frio.
* At  8:30 PM Sunday the stage was 9.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river level is now below bankfull and will continue falling.
  
  This is the last forecast for this event.


&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Dry Frio           10   12    9.2   Sun 08 PM   6.8   4.7   4.1   4.2   4.1


&&

LAT...LON 2923 9971 2929 9962 2898 9917 2876 9912
      2873 9920 2893 9924             

$$

TXC463-250305-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-150525T1323Z/
/SABT2.2.ER.150524T0441Z.150524T0645Z.150524T2129Z.NO/
935 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The flood warning is cancelled for the Sabinal At Sabinal.
* At  8:30 PM Sunday the stage was 10.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river level will continue to fall to 8.3 feet by Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Flow extends into lowest areas of the flood plain with
  no significant damage..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Sabinal            10   12   10.1   Sun 08 PM   8.9   8.3   7.9   7.5   7.1


&&

LAT...LON 2962 9956 2962 9948 2914 9941 2901 9921
      2894 9925 2910 9949             

$$

TXC325-250305-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-150525T0504Z/
/SCRT2.2.ER.150524T0423Z.150524T0530Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
935 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The flood warning is cancelled for the Seco Creek At Rowe Ranch Near D'hanis.
* At  9:15 PM Sunday the stage was 9.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The creek level is now below bankfull and will continue falling.
  
  This is the last forecast for this event.


&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Seco Creek At Ro   13   15    9.1   Sun 09 PM   8.4   8.1   8.1   8.1   8.0


&&

LAT...LON 2939 9931 2939 9923 2920 9921 2902 9909
      2902 9918 2920 9929             

$$

TXC325-250305-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0042.000000T0000Z-150525T0600Z/
/KWHT2.2.ER.150524T0427Z.150524T0530Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
935 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The flood warning is cancelled for the Hondo Creek At King Waterhole @ Hwy 173.
* At  9:00 PM Sunday the stage was 5.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The creek level is now below bankfull and will continue falling.
  
  This is the last forecast for this event.



&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 King Waterhole/h   10   12    5.9   Sun 09 PM   5.5   5.0   5.2   5.5   5.1


&&

LAT...LON 2938 9915 2938 9905 2913 9902 2902 9909
      2902 9918 2913 9910             

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
649 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
STORMS HAVE CLEARED THE DRT AREA FOR THE TIME BEING BUT HAVE KEPT
IN CHANCES FOR LATER TONIGHT. SAT/SSF WILL BE IMPACTED BY MORE
STORMS WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS AND AUSTIN A BIT LONGER. BUT
PREVAILING THUNDER FOR THESE I-35 TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN ACTIVE AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS SHAPING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BOTH
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM ON SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT IS ONGOING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR CONVECTION HAS BEGUN ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE BIG
BEND REGION. THIS IS THE START OF A LARGE LINEAR MCS THAT ALL OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN SITTING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PROVIDING THE LIFT FOR
THIS MCS. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2
INCHES. THERE IS ALSO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WITH
THE MORNING DRT AND CRP SOUNDINGS BOTH HAVING 2000 - 3000 J/KG OF
CAPE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL AND BULK SHEAR IS ALSO EVIDENT
ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THIS MEANS THAT ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
ARE IN PLACE FOR BOTH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
BREAKDOWN THE THREATS AND THE TIME PERIODS IN THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM AFD.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE MESOSCALE MODELS DEVELOP
A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TIMING FOR THIS CONTINUES TO GET EARLIER. THE NSSL WRF
AND ARM BOTH HAVE THE LINE APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR AND NMM ALL SAY THAT
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND APPROACHING
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 9PM AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS THE EARLIER
TIMING IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKELY. MODELS ARE STILL HOLDING
ONTO 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
CONVECTION. THIS...ON TOP OF ADDITIONAL RAINS THAT HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN TODAY...AND THE FACT THAT SOILS ARE SATURATED WILL LEAD TO
THE THREAT OF BOTH RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. WHILE CONVECTION GROUPING
TOGETHER LIKE THIS TYPICAL MEANS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
A LITTLE BIT LESS...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE. THE
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FIRST DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WITHIN
BOWING SECTIONS OF THE LINE. THE HRRR ACTUAL SUPPORTS THIS WITH
SEVERAL BOWING SECTIONS BEING SHOWN IN THE MODEL REFLECTIVITY.
THERE IS ALSO SUFFICIENT SURFACE WIND SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES
TO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WINDS PROFILES TURN
WITH HEIGHT.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT THOSE OUT AND
ABOUT FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE ON LOCAL RIVERS
AND LAKES...MONITOR THE WEATHER AND BE READY TO ACT SHOULD A
WARNING BE ISSUED FOR THEIR AREA. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WEATHER INFORMATION...HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER OR GET TO SAFETY
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING OCCUR...AND ALWAYS REMEMBER TO
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

AS WE GET INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
CONTINUED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS NOW
SHOW THE LINE MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA BY 09Z TO 12Z (4 TO 7 AM).
BEHIND THE LINE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SOME WHAT WORKED OVER FROM
THE NIGHT OF STORMS. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 3000 J/KG
OF CAPE...SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE SAME SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW
AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SUNDAYS. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE ARM/NMM/NSSL WRF DO SHOW
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED.

TO SUMMARIZE THE NEXT 24 HOURS...1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT. THE LINE SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF OUR AREA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO EXIST WITH THE LINE. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVERYONE SHOULD BE
WEATHER AWARE FOR THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE OUT AND ABOUT ON
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE BREAK FROM THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND GIVE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN AND
STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST TIMING FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM AROUND LUNCH TIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL QPF (FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF) FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
SUGGEST ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES AS WELL. LATER SHIFTS WOULD POSSIBLE NEED
TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO MONDAY AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO
RETURN ON MONDAY. SPC HAS THE AREA CURRENTLY BLANKETED IN A DAY 3
SLIGHT RISK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORM
MODE AND COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL THREAT OF
TORNADOES AS CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OR MCS STORM MODES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY CLOSELY. STRESSING
AGAIN...ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY NEEDS TO MAKE
SURE THEY ARE WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOP.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR TUESDAY IS MORE ZONAL WITH SOME SLIGHT
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER REDUCTION IN POP
CHANCES FOR MID-WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST RETURNING THE AREA TO A
SIMILAR PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  81  70  81  69 /  90  70  30  70  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  82  69  81  68 /  90  70  30  70  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  83  69  81  70 /  90  70  40  70  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  81  69  80  67 /  90  70  30  70  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  90  71  89  69 /  60  30  20  50  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  80  69  80  68 /  90  70  30  70  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             68  85  70  83  69 /  90  40  30  70  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  82  69  81  69 /  90  70  40  70  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  82  71  82  71 /  80  80  60  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  84  71  82  71 /  90  60  40  70  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  84  71  83  71 /  90  60  40  70  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
640 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TXZ171>173-186>194-203>209-217>225-228-242345-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-
HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-
CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-
GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
640 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM
SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE HILL COUNTRY...I-35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
EAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY TODAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY AS A LARGE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS. WITH NEARLY SATURATED
SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE A HIGH
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED
TO EXTEND FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 1
TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE NEW RISES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOOD AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON RIVERS...
CONDITIONS ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE STORM COMPLEX WILL BE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH 7 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS SUNDAY WITH DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY
EVENING. THE CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THREAT INTO SUNDAY...MEANS ALL
OF THE RIVERS AND STREAMS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE A POTENTIAL
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES. SOME RIVERS REMAIN SWOLLEN FROM RECENT
RAINFALL. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.

NEW EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR AGAIN MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. THE STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

WIDESPREAD RAINS FOR THE FIVE DAY PERIOD ENDING TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES...WHILE SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVING UP
TO 6 INCHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TXZ183>185-202-242345-
VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KINNEY-
640 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH 9
PM SATURDAY EVENING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
OVER WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY TODAY. THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY AS A LARGE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS. WITH NEARLY SATURATED
SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE A HIGH
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED
TO EXTEND FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 1
TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE NEW RISES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOOD AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON RIVERS...
CONDITIONS ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE STORM COMPLEX WILL BE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH 7 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS SUNDAY WITH DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY
EVENING. THE CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THREAT INTO SUNDAY...MEANS ALL
OF THE RIVERS AND STREAMS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE A POTENTIAL
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES. SOME RIVERS REMAIN SWOLLEN FROM RECENT
RAINFALL. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.

NEW EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR AGAIN MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. THE STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

WIDESPREAD RAINS FOR THE FIVE DAY PERIOD ENDING TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES...WHILE SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVING UP
TO 6 INCHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1044 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND DMG     AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP 30.20N  97.67W
05/23/2015                   TRAVIS             TX   PUBLIC

            AIRPORT WEATHER OBSERVER OFFICE DAMAGED

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500465

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1046 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LIBERTY HILL            30.67N  97.92W
05/23/2015                   WILLIAMSON         TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING OF HOMES IN LIBERTY HILL NEAR 1869 AND 279.
            EVACUATIONS ONGOING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500466

CVP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1047 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TXZ194-209-223-225-240415-
GONZALES TX-LEE TX-LAVACA TX-FAYETTE TX-
1047 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAYETTE...NORTHEASTERN
GONZALES...NORTHWESTERN LAVACA AND EASTERN LEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM
CDT...

AT 1047 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR TANGLEWOOD TO DIME BOX
TO NEAR LA GRANGE TO NEAR WAELDER...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GIDDINGS...LA GRANGE...SCHULENBURG...HALLETTSVILLE...FLATONIA...
MOULTON...SHELBY...WAELDER...FAYETTEVILLE...ROUND TOP...MULDOON...
DIME BOX...MORAVIA...DUBINA...ELLINGER...ENGLE...REK HILL...WARDA...
WALDECK AND AMMANNSVILLE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2963 9687 2963 9686 2958 9683 2956 9678
      2943 9693 2965 9735 3000 9694 3035 9688
      3055 9696 3054 9692 3046 9690 3039 9679
      3032 9674 3029 9664 3024 9674 3020 9674
      3016 9679 3014 9677 3015 9665 2996 9657
TIME...MOT...LOC 0347Z 291DEG 29KT 3055 9692 3033 9684 2998 9690 2969
9724

ZEITLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1050 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1049 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE AUSTIN            30.30N  97.69W
05/23/2015                   TRAVIS             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES BLOWN DOWN ON OLD MANOR RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500467

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1051 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LIBERTY HILL            30.67N  97.92W
05/23/2015                   WILLIAMSON         TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING ON HWY 29 AT US 183

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500468

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1102 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1102 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CEDAR PARK              30.51N  97.83W
05/23/2015                   WILLIAMSON         TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES BLOWN DOWN ONTO BUILDING. WAREHOUSE DOORS BLOWN
            AWAY AND ONE CANT BE LOCATED. CHAIN LINK FENCING BLOWN
            DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500469

CVP