River Flood Warning 25, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

838 
WGUS44 KEWX 240156
FLWEWX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
856 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued 
 a flood warning for the... 

  Guadalupe River 
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 
 
River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 
 
Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 
 
If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 
 
For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC265-241956-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0024.150524T0417Z-150525T0800Z/
/HNTT2.2.ER.150524T0417Z.150524T0900Z.150524T2000Z.NO/
856 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity... 
The flood warning continues for the Guadalupe River At Hunt.
* until late Sunday night...or until the warning is cancelled. 
* At  8:15 PM Saturday the stage was 8.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river level will rise above flood stage Saturday evening and
  continue to rise to near 12.6 feet by early tomorrow. The river level will
  fall below flood stage by tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding reaches the Highway 39 
  bridge floor two miles east of Hunt preventing easy travel to western parts of
  the county. Areas of the headwaters are isolated temporarily as low water 
  crossings flood..
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 13.5 feet on Dec 21 
  1991.

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu
 Hunt               10   10    8.4   Sat 08 PM  12.4   8.7   8.3   8.2   8.2


&&

LAT...LON 3003 9941 3010 9941 3010 9916 3003 9919


$$

TXC265-241956-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FL.W.0034.150524T0850Z-150525T0413Z/
/KRRT2.2.ER.150524T0850Z.150524T1100Z.150524T1613Z.NO/
856 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

 The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a 

* Flood Warning for the Guadalupe River At Kerrville.
* from late tonight to Sunday evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:45 PM Saturday the stage was 2.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river level will rise above flood stage by early Sunday and
  continue to rise to near 12.3 feet by tomorrow morning. The river level will
  fall below flood stage by late Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Flow is over the left bank. Secondary and primary 
  roads and bridges are flooded. The swimming pool and tennis court in a resort 
  and restuarant upstream left bank flood. Flow is near the USGS 1:5 year flood 
  level..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu
 Kerrville           7    9    2.2   Sat 08 PM  12.3   2.4   2.0   1.9   1.9


&&

LAT...LON 3003 9919 3010 9916 2997 9902 3000 9890
      2993 9891 2991 9906             

$$

TXC259-241956-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0025.150524T0148Z-150525T0500Z/
/COMT2.2.ER.150524T0029Z.150524T0500Z.150524T1700Z.NO/
856 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity... 
The flood warning continues for the Guadalupe River At Comfort.
* until late Sunday night...or until the warning is cancelled. 
* At  7:45 PM Saturday the stage was 22.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river level will continue rising to near 26.9 feet by very
  early Sunday morning. The river level will fall below flood stage early
  afternoon Sunday.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet...Moderate flooding in the Guadalupe River backs up 
  Cypress Creek in the west edge of Comfort and additional heavy runoff down 
  Cypress Creek floods the lowest homes. Low roads, bridges, and crossings over 
  the Guadalupe River are very dangerous..
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 27.5 feet on Oct 19 
  1985.

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu
 Comfort            10   21   22.9   Sat 08 PM  22.4   7.4   5.7   5.1   4.9


&&

LAT...LON 2993 9891 3000 9890 2996 9863 2990 9840
      2983 9839 2988 9864             

$$

862 
WGUS84 KEWX 241419
FLSEWX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
919 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Texas...

  Guadalupe River At Kerrville AFFECTING Kerr County
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC265-241449-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-150525T0413Z/
/KRRT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
919 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The flood warning is cancelled for
  the Guadalupe River At Kerrville.
* At  8:45 AM Sunday the stage was 4.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river will crest below flood stage at 7.2 feet this afternoon.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Flow is over the right bank..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Kerrville           7    9    4.1   Sun  9 AM   2.3   2.0   1.9   1.9   1.9


&&

LAT...LON 3003 9919 3010 9916 2997 9902 3000 9890
      2993 9891 2991 9906             

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
649 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
STORMS HAVE CLEARED THE DRT AREA FOR THE TIME BEING BUT HAVE KEPT
IN CHANCES FOR LATER TONIGHT. SAT/SSF WILL BE IMPACTED BY MORE
STORMS WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS AND AUSTIN A BIT LONGER. BUT
PREVAILING THUNDER FOR THESE I-35 TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN ACTIVE AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS SHAPING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BOTH
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM ON SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT IS ONGOING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR CONVECTION HAS BEGUN ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE BIG
BEND REGION. THIS IS THE START OF A LARGE LINEAR MCS THAT ALL OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN SITTING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PROVIDING THE LIFT FOR
THIS MCS. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2
INCHES. THERE IS ALSO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WITH
THE MORNING DRT AND CRP SOUNDINGS BOTH HAVING 2000 - 3000 J/KG OF
CAPE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL AND BULK SHEAR IS ALSO EVIDENT
ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THIS MEANS THAT ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
ARE IN PLACE FOR BOTH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
BREAKDOWN THE THREATS AND THE TIME PERIODS IN THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM AFD.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE MESOSCALE MODELS DEVELOP
A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TIMING FOR THIS CONTINUES TO GET EARLIER. THE NSSL WRF
AND ARM BOTH HAVE THE LINE APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR AND NMM ALL SAY THAT
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND APPROACHING
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 9PM AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS THE EARLIER
TIMING IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKELY. MODELS ARE STILL HOLDING
ONTO 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
CONVECTION. THIS...ON TOP OF ADDITIONAL RAINS THAT HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN TODAY...AND THE FACT THAT SOILS ARE SATURATED WILL LEAD TO
THE THREAT OF BOTH RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. WHILE CONVECTION GROUPING
TOGETHER LIKE THIS TYPICAL MEANS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
A LITTLE BIT LESS...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE. THE
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FIRST DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WITHIN
BOWING SECTIONS OF THE LINE. THE HRRR ACTUAL SUPPORTS THIS WITH
SEVERAL BOWING SECTIONS BEING SHOWN IN THE MODEL REFLECTIVITY.
THERE IS ALSO SUFFICIENT SURFACE WIND SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES
TO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WINDS PROFILES TURN
WITH HEIGHT.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT THOSE OUT AND
ABOUT FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE ON LOCAL RIVERS
AND LAKES...MONITOR THE WEATHER AND BE READY TO ACT SHOULD A
WARNING BE ISSUED FOR THEIR AREA. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WEATHER INFORMATION...HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER OR GET TO SAFETY
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING OCCUR...AND ALWAYS REMEMBER TO
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

AS WE GET INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
CONTINUED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS NOW
SHOW THE LINE MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA BY 09Z TO 12Z (4 TO 7 AM).
BEHIND THE LINE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SOME WHAT WORKED OVER FROM
THE NIGHT OF STORMS. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 3000 J/KG
OF CAPE...SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE SAME SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW
AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SUNDAYS. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE ARM/NMM/NSSL WRF DO SHOW
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED.

TO SUMMARIZE THE NEXT 24 HOURS...1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT. THE LINE SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF OUR AREA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO EXIST WITH THE LINE. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVERYONE SHOULD BE
WEATHER AWARE FOR THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE OUT AND ABOUT ON
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE BREAK FROM THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND GIVE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN AND
STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST TIMING FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM AROUND LUNCH TIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL QPF (FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF) FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
SUGGEST ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES AS WELL. LATER SHIFTS WOULD POSSIBLE NEED
TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO MONDAY AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO
RETURN ON MONDAY. SPC HAS THE AREA CURRENTLY BLANKETED IN A DAY 3
SLIGHT RISK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORM
MODE AND COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL THREAT OF
TORNADOES AS CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OR MCS STORM MODES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY CLOSELY. STRESSING
AGAIN...ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY NEEDS TO MAKE
SURE THEY ARE WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOP.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR TUESDAY IS MORE ZONAL WITH SOME SLIGHT
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER REDUCTION IN POP
CHANCES FOR MID-WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST RETURNING THE AREA TO A
SIMILAR PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  81  70  81  69 /  90  70  30  70  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  82  69  81  68 /  90  70  30  70  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  83  69  81  70 /  90  70  40  70  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  81  69  80  67 /  90  70  30  70  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  90  71  89  69 /  60  30  20  50  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  80  69  80  68 /  90  70  30  70  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             68  85  70  83  69 /  90  40  30  70  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  82  69  81  69 /  90  70  40  70  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  82  71  82  71 /  80  80  60  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  84  71  82  71 /  90  60  40  70  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  84  71  83  71 /  90  60  40  70  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
640 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TXZ171>173-186>194-203>209-217>225-228-242345-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-
HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-
CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-
GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
640 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM
SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE HILL COUNTRY...I-35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
EAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY TODAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY AS A LARGE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS. WITH NEARLY SATURATED
SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE A HIGH
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED
TO EXTEND FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 1
TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE NEW RISES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOOD AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON RIVERS...
CONDITIONS ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE STORM COMPLEX WILL BE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH 7 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS SUNDAY WITH DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY
EVENING. THE CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THREAT INTO SUNDAY...MEANS ALL
OF THE RIVERS AND STREAMS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE A POTENTIAL
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES. SOME RIVERS REMAIN SWOLLEN FROM RECENT
RAINFALL. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.

NEW EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR AGAIN MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. THE STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

WIDESPREAD RAINS FOR THE FIVE DAY PERIOD ENDING TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES...WHILE SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVING UP
TO 6 INCHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TXZ183>185-202-242345-
VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KINNEY-
640 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH 9
PM SATURDAY EVENING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
OVER WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY TODAY. THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY AS A LARGE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS. WITH NEARLY SATURATED
SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE A HIGH
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED
TO EXTEND FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 1
TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE NEW RISES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOOD AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON RIVERS...
CONDITIONS ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE STORM COMPLEX WILL BE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH 7 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS SUNDAY WITH DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY
EVENING. THE CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THREAT INTO SUNDAY...MEANS ALL
OF THE RIVERS AND STREAMS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE A POTENTIAL
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES. SOME RIVERS REMAIN SWOLLEN FROM RECENT
RAINFALL. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.

NEW EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR AGAIN MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. THE STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

WIDESPREAD RAINS FOR THE FIVE DAY PERIOD ENDING TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES...WHILE SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVING UP
TO 6 INCHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
605 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NW BANDERA            29.76N  99.11W
05/23/2015  M3.48 INCH       BANDERA            TX   COCORAHS

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500443

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
613 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LEAKEY                  29.72N  99.76W
05/23/2015                   REAL               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RM337 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500444

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ENE FLUGRATH          30.10N  98.50W
05/23/2015                   BLANCO             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RM 1623 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500445

CVP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
639 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TXZ203-218-240030-
ZAVALA TX-UVALDE TX-
639 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ZAVALA AND SOUTHEASTERN
UVALDE COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 639 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF FRIO
TOWN TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF LA PRYOR...AND MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BATESVILLE...LA PRYOR AND WASHER.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2906 9993 2932 9942 2899 9941 2874 9996
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 187DEG 20KT 2908 9942 2884 9988

ZEITLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CAMP WOOD               29.67N 100.01W
05/23/2015                   REAL               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE ROADS IN AND OUT OF CAMP WOOD CLOSED DUE TO
            HIGH WATER

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500446

CVP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
711 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TXZ218-219-228-240100-
DIMMIT TX-ZAVALA TX-FRIO TX-
711 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN ZAVALA...WESTERN FRIO AND
NORTHEASTERN DIMMIT COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 711 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FRIO
TOWN TO NEAR BIG WELLS...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BIG WELLS...MOORE...LAS VEGAS...DIVOT...FRIO TOWN...BRUNDAGE...BLUFF
AND LOMA VISTA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2852 9974 2909 9945 2909 9901 2864 9929
      2864 9939 2852 9940
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 271DEG 20KT 2895 9939 2865 9958

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