Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1244 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

Sct shwrs/storms ongoing across north-central Missouri this morning
as warm air advection on the heels of a veering low-level jet interacts
with a stalled frontal boundary. Within the past few hours...radar
trends have shown gradual weakening as convergence into the boundary
has faltered to some degree. In any event...current activity may
last another few hours before drier conditions temporary move into
the area towards sunrise. Meanwhile to our northwest...IR satellite
showing notable cooling across southern South Dakota/northern
Nebraska this morning as another MCS is developing in northwest flow
aloft. Quick look at the various high-res models suggests convection
will continue to move southeast through the morning...before possibly
moving into our area by early afternoon. If this were not enough...a
secondary round of storms will be possible later this afternoon as
the lingering front begins to slowly retreat northward with time.
With either round...strong wind fields aloft combined with moderate
levels of instability will support isolated severe storms with strong
winds and large hail remaining the main concerns once again. Latest
SPC Day 1 outlook places a good majority of the region in Slgt Risk
and NAM/GFS bulk shear and instability forecasts certainly support
the outlooked area.

Temp forecast is defiantly a tricky one for today as previously
mentioned frontal boundary is forecast to lift north towards the IA
state line by tonight. Meanwhile...early morning convection likely
reinforced this boundary to some degree and any developing convection
later on may also prevent much northward movement. For now...have
played current high temp forecast on the conservative side with
mid/upper 80s expected across north-central MO...with low 90s likely
from the Missouri Rvr south. Current fcst calls for sub advisory heat
indices...however warm and muggy conditions will definitely be in
place across the Metro region this afternoon.

Frontal boundary expected to lift north of the area early Monday
morning with any overnight convection likely coming to an end
towards daybreak at the latest. This will set the stage for what appears
to be another very hot day as 850 thermal ridging overspreads the
area. Surprisingly...latest MOS numbers have come down a few degrees
cooler than in previous runs...but cannot see any real reason to
believe low to mid 90s won/t be possible by Monday afternoon. In any
event...downslope flow combined with deep layers mixing should
support heat indices again meeting criteria across the KC Metro. Have
elected to hold off on an advisory right now based on limited model
support...however if signals (thermal ridging/downslope winds) remain
in place with 12z model runs...dayshift could easily go with one this
afternoon.

By Tuesday...models suggest cold front will once again sag south
across the region as a shortwave trough moves through the upper Miss
Rvr Vly and sfc high pressure builds south across the Northern
Plains. The end result will be cooler temps by midweek as frontal
boundary stalls across the fcst region. As was mentioned
yesterday...signals for an extended wet period continue to present
themselves this morning as ample amounts of low-level moisture move
north thanks to a wide open Gulf of Mexico. This combined with the
migration of several shortwave disturbances embedded in northwest
flow aloft will set the stage for repeated rounds of shwrs/storms.
Will have to watch this closely based on possible heavy rain
concerns and already elevated water levels on area rivers and
streams.

Towards the end of the week/early weekend...stalled front expected to
finally move through the area as strong high pressure builds south
from the Northern Plains. This should lead to slightly below normal
temperatures heading into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

Vicinity thunderstorms currently keep bubbling up near the terminals
and will persist well into the afternoon hours. This will likely
result in a combination of VFR and MVFR ceilings as the storms move
through this afternoon with the potential for quick periods of IFR.
After the storms dissipate later today expect VFR conditions into
the evening hours before the strong winds ahead of an approaching
cold front advect some MVFR ceilings in late tonight. Ceilings should
clear out tomorrow morning as the gusty winds increase in speed from
the southwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
452 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-221000-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
452 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
 EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH
 OF A SEDALIA TO ST. JOSEPH LINE ALTHOUGH, ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
 WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THAT LINE. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE
 FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
 DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

 HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
 TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
132 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

MOZ022-023-030-031-211915-
CALDWELL MO-CARROLL MO-LIVINGSTON MO-RAY MO-
132 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN RAY...SOUTHWESTERN
LIVINGSTON...NORTHWESTERN CARROLL AND SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES
UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 128 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR KINGSTON...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF HAMILTON...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  COWGILL...BRAYMER AND BOGARD.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3942 9349 3952 9408 3970 9402 3965 9376
      3962 9355 3959 9343
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 289DEG 31KT 3960 9394

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
137 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S KEARNEY             39.34N 94.36W
06/21/2015  M2.63 INCH       CLAY               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RECORDED IN AN HOUR. STILL RAINING. LOCATION ESTIMATED.

&&

PMURRAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
155 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0139 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S SMITHVILLE          39.33N 94.58W
06/21/2015  E65 MPH          CLAY               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 60 TO 65 MPH. ALSO TORRENTIAL RAIN.

&&

CUTTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
203 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

KSZ025-102-211930-
ATCHISON KS-DONIPHAN KS-
203 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DONIPHAN AND WESTERN
ATCHISON COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 201 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HORTON...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF HIAWATHA...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MUSCOTAH...EFFINGHAM...LANCASTER...HURON AND FARMINGTON.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3958 9557 3965 9557 3966 9556 3966 9534
      3971 9534 3969 9520 3943 9530 3953 9558
      3957 9558
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 286DEG 28KT 3963 9554

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
205 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

MOZ011>013-020-211930-
ANDREW MO-BUCHANAN MO-DE KALB MO-HOLT MO-
205 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ANDREW...SOUTHEASTERN HOLT...
WESTERN DEKALB AND NORTHEASTERN BUCHANAN COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 201 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FILLMORE...OR 9 MILES WEST OF SAVANNAH...
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  SAVANNAH...COUNTRY CLUB VILLA...AMAZONIA...UNION STAR...
  ROSENDALE...COSBY AND HELENA.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 52 AND 69.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4007 9503 4004 9461 4004 9449 3975 9457
      3975 9459 3986 9495 3988 9493 3990 9494
      3990 9501 3988 9503 3990 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 283DEG 42KT 3997 9494

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
208 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

MOZ031-211945-
CARROLL MO-
208 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CARROLL COUNTY UNTIL 245
PM CDT...

AT 205 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF NORBORNE...OR 9 MILES WEST OF
CARROLLTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  CARROLLTON...NORBORNE...BOGARD AND WAKENDA.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3923 9340 3924 9342 3926 9340 3927 9345
      3929 9347 3929 9349 3926 9350 3932 9376
      3943 9376 3948 9369 3945 9333
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 284DEG 14KT 3940 9365

LG