Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Kansas City, MO

440 
WGUS73 KEAX 212232
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
532 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

MOC033-107-177-195-212247-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-150621T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CARROLL MO-LAFAYETTE MO-RAY MO-SALINE MO-
532 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN SALINE...
SOUTHEASTERN RAY...NORTHERN LAFAYETTE AND SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. 
FLOODING CONTINUES IN SEVERAL AREAS... AND THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING 
HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 930 PM CDT. IF 
FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW 
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3926 9328 3896 9342 3908 9410 3925 9410
      3922 9399 3938 9395

$$

LAFLIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
623 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

Sct shwrs/storms ongoing across north-central Missouri this morning
as warm air advection on the heels of a veering low-level jet interacts
with a stalled frontal boundary. Within the past few hours...radar
trends have shown gradual weakening as convergence into the boundary
has faltered to some degree. In any event...current activity may
last another few hours before drier conditions temporary move into
the area towards sunrise. Meanwhile to our northwest...IR satellite
showing notable cooling across southern South Dakota/northern
Nebraska this morning as another MCS is developing in northwest flow
aloft. Quick look at the various high-res models suggests convection
will continue to move southeast through the morning...before possibly
moving into our area by early afternoon. If this were not enough...a
secondary round of storms will be possible later this afternoon as
the lingering front begins to slowly retreat northward with time.
With either round...strong wind fields aloft combined with moderate
levels of instability will support isolated severe storms with strong
winds and large hail remaining the main concerns once again. Latest
SPC Day 1 outlook places a good majority of the region in Slgt Risk
and NAM/GFS bulk shear and instability forecasts certainly support
the outlooked area.

Temp forecast is defiantly a tricky one for today as previously
mentioned frontal boundary is forecast to lift north towards the IA
state line by tonight. Meanwhile...early morning convection likely
reinforced this boundary to some degree and any developing convection
later on may also prevent much northward movement. For now...have
played current high temp forecast on the conservative side with
mid/upper 80s expected across north-central MO...with low 90s likely
from the Missouri Rvr south. Current fcst calls for sub advisory heat
indices...however warm and muggy conditions will definitely be in
place across the Metro region this afternoon.

Frontal boundary expected to lift north of the area early Monday
morning with any overnight convection likely coming to an end
towards daybreak at the latest. This will set the stage for what appears
to be another very hot day as 850 thermal ridging overspreads the
area. Surprisingly...latest MOS numbers have come down a few degrees
cooler than in previous runs...but cannot see any real reason to
believe low to mid 90s won/t be possible by Monday afternoon. In any
event...downslope flow combined with deep layers mixing should
support heat indices again meeting criteria across the KC Metro. Have
elected to hold off on an advisory right now based on limited model
support...however if signals (thermal ridging/downslope winds) remain
in place with 12z model runs...dayshift could easily go with one this
afternoon.

By Tuesday...models suggest cold front will once again sag south
across the region as a shortwave trough moves through the upper Miss
Rvr Vly and sfc high pressure builds south across the Northern
Plains. The end result will be cooler temps by midweek as frontal
boundary stalls across the fcst region. As was mentioned
yesterday...signals for an extended wet period continue to present
themselves this morning as ample amounts of low-level moisture move
north thanks to a wide open Gulf of Mexico. This combined with the
migration of several shortwave disturbances embedded in northwest
flow aloft will set the stage for repeated rounds of shwrs/storms.
Will have to watch this closely based on possible heavy rain
concerns and already elevated water levels on area rivers and
streams.

Towards the end of the week/early weekend...stalled front expected to
finally move through the area as strong high pressure builds south
from the Northern Plains. This should lead to slightly below normal
temperatures heading into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the fcst cycle. Will have to
watch MCS activity now in place over central Nebraska...as high-res
models show activity skirting northern terminals later this morning.
Otherwise...isolated shwrs/storms expected to develop this afternoon
along a lingering frontal boundary. Will maintain VCTS mention at all
terminals with the exception of IXD. Activity should begin to
dissipate early this evening as boundary begins lifting northward
with time. Winds will generally remain from the south between 8-12 kts
through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
452 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-221000-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
452 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
 EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH
 OF A SEDALIA TO ST. JOSEPH LINE ALTHOUGH, ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
 WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THAT LINE. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE
 FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
 DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

 HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
 TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1141 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 AM     HAIL             3 SW KEARNEY            39.34N 94.40W
06/21/2015  M1.00 INCH       CLAY               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

1125 AM     HEAVY RAIN       KEARNEY                 39.37N 94.36W
06/21/2015  M1.40 INCH       CLAY               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAD 1.4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 30 MINUTES.

&&

CUTTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1147 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

MOZ029>031-037-038-211730-
CARROLL MO-CLAY MO-JACKSON MO-LAFAYETTE MO-RAY MO-
1147 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN RAY...NORTHERN
LAFAYETTE...NORTHEASTERN JACKSON...SOUTHERN CLAY AND SOUTHWESTERN
CARROLL COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

AT 1146 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HARDIN TO HARDIN TO SIBLEY TO LIBERTY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  LEXINGTON...BUCKNER...HARDIN...SIBLEY...HENRIETTA...WELLINGTON...
  NORBORNE...LEVASY...FLEMING...CAMDEN...NAPOLEON AND DOVER.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3925 9355 3914 9358 3904 9389 3909 9411
      3926 9453 3922 9425 3933 9395 3944 9391
TIME...MOT...LOC 1647Z 299DEG 25KT 3935 9387 3929 9384
          3917 9415 3924 9441

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1153 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W KEARNEY             39.37N 94.46W
06/21/2015                   CLAY               MO   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER FLOWING OVER ROAD AT THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 92 AND
            FRANCIS ROAD.

&&

PMURRAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1158 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NW KEARNEY            39.39N 94.39W
06/21/2015                   CLAY               MO   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER OVER THE ROAD AT 162ND AND NATION ROAD. EXACT
            LOCATION ESTIMATED.

&&

PMURRAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1215 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RICHMOND                39.28N 93.97W
06/21/2015                   RAY                MO   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN IN THE CITY OF RICHMOND. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

PMURRAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1216 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S HENRIETTA           39.21N 93.94W
06/21/2015                   RAY                MO   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES UPROOTED NEAR HENRIETTA. TIME AND LOCATION
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

PMURRAY