Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Kansas City, MO

650 
WGUS73 KEAX 212233
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
533 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

MOC033-177-212248-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-150622T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CARROLL MO-RAY MO-
533 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL RAY
AND CENTRAL CARROLL COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. 
FLOODING CONTINUES IN SEVERAL AREAS... AND THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING 
HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 930 PM CDT. IF 
FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW 
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3931 9331 3931 9334 3928 9334 3927 9334
      3938 9395 3949 9392 3942 9328

$$

LAFLIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1244 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

Sct shwrs/storms ongoing across north-central Missouri this morning
as warm air advection on the heels of a veering low-level jet interacts
with a stalled frontal boundary. Within the past few hours...radar
trends have shown gradual weakening as convergence into the boundary
has faltered to some degree. In any event...current activity may
last another few hours before drier conditions temporary move into
the area towards sunrise. Meanwhile to our northwest...IR satellite
showing notable cooling across southern South Dakota/northern
Nebraska this morning as another MCS is developing in northwest flow
aloft. Quick look at the various high-res models suggests convection
will continue to move southeast through the morning...before possibly
moving into our area by early afternoon. If this were not enough...a
secondary round of storms will be possible later this afternoon as
the lingering front begins to slowly retreat northward with time.
With either round...strong wind fields aloft combined with moderate
levels of instability will support isolated severe storms with strong
winds and large hail remaining the main concerns once again. Latest
SPC Day 1 outlook places a good majority of the region in Slgt Risk
and NAM/GFS bulk shear and instability forecasts certainly support
the outlooked area.

Temp forecast is defiantly a tricky one for today as previously
mentioned frontal boundary is forecast to lift north towards the IA
state line by tonight. Meanwhile...early morning convection likely
reinforced this boundary to some degree and any developing convection
later on may also prevent much northward movement. For now...have
played current high temp forecast on the conservative side with
mid/upper 80s expected across north-central MO...with low 90s likely
from the Missouri Rvr south. Current fcst calls for sub advisory heat
indices...however warm and muggy conditions will definitely be in
place across the Metro region this afternoon.

Frontal boundary expected to lift north of the area early Monday
morning with any overnight convection likely coming to an end
towards daybreak at the latest. This will set the stage for what appears
to be another very hot day as 850 thermal ridging overspreads the
area. Surprisingly...latest MOS numbers have come down a few degrees
cooler than in previous runs...but cannot see any real reason to
believe low to mid 90s won/t be possible by Monday afternoon. In any
event...downslope flow combined with deep layers mixing should
support heat indices again meeting criteria across the KC Metro. Have
elected to hold off on an advisory right now based on limited model
support...however if signals (thermal ridging/downslope winds) remain
in place with 12z model runs...dayshift could easily go with one this
afternoon.

By Tuesday...models suggest cold front will once again sag south
across the region as a shortwave trough moves through the upper Miss
Rvr Vly and sfc high pressure builds south across the Northern
Plains. The end result will be cooler temps by midweek as frontal
boundary stalls across the fcst region. As was mentioned
yesterday...signals for an extended wet period continue to present
themselves this morning as ample amounts of low-level moisture move
north thanks to a wide open Gulf of Mexico. This combined with the
migration of several shortwave disturbances embedded in northwest
flow aloft will set the stage for repeated rounds of shwrs/storms.
Will have to watch this closely based on possible heavy rain
concerns and already elevated water levels on area rivers and
streams.

Towards the end of the week/early weekend...stalled front expected to
finally move through the area as strong high pressure builds south
from the Northern Plains. This should lead to slightly below normal
temperatures heading into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

Vicinity thunderstorms currently keep bubbling up near the terminals
and will persist well into the afternoon hours. This will likely
result in a combination of VFR and MVFR ceilings as the storms move
through this afternoon with the potential for quick periods of IFR.
After the storms dissipate later today expect VFR conditions into
the evening hours before the strong winds ahead of an approaching
cold front advect some MVFR ceilings in late tonight. Ceilings should
clear out tomorrow morning as the gusty winds increase in speed from
the southwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
452 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-221000-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
452 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
 EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH
 OF A SEDALIA TO ST. JOSEPH LINE ALTHOUGH, ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
 WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THAT LINE. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE
 FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
 DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

 HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
 TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
231 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

MOZ013-020-021-212000-
BUCHANAN MO-CLINTON MO-DE KALB MO-
231 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DEKALB...
NORTHWESTERN CLINTON AND NORTHEASTERN BUCHANAN COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM
CDT...

AT 228 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ST. JOSEPH...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  GOWER...AGENCY AND EASTON.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 39 AND 51.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3982 9481 3982 9473 3980 9449 3956 9457
      3966 9487
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 285DEG 20KT 3972 9475

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
235 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0132 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NW EXCELSIOR SPRINGS  39.35N 94.24W
06/21/2015                   CLAY               MO   PUBLIC

            STORM DRAINAGE DITCH OVERFLOWING ACROSS DRIVEWAY OFF
            WARNALL ROAD ON HOLTZ AVE. REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

PMURRAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
235 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

MOZ031-038-039-212000-
CARROLL MO-LAFAYETTE MO-SALINE MO-
235 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SALINE...NORTHEASTERN
LAFAYETTE AND SOUTHERN CARROLL COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 233 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WAVERLY...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CARROLLTON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  WAVERLY...BLACKBURN...MALTA BEND...GRAND PASS AND MOUNT LEONARD.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3904 9333 3917 9373 3921 9371 3930 9366
      3926 9350 3928 9349 3927 9341 3924 9342
      3923 9340 3923 9335 3926 9333 3925 9326
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 290DEG 29KT 3922 9357

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
250 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     FLASH FLOOD      EXCELSIOR SPRINGS       39.34N 94.23W
06/21/2015                   CLAY               MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            EAST BRANCH OF FISHING RIVER OVERFLOWING LEVY INTO PAUL

            CRAIG PARK. WATER ESTIMATED TO BE 10 FT DEEP IN BALLPARK.

&&

PMURRAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
257 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0239 PM     HAIL             1 S ST. JOSEPH          39.75N 94.85W
06/21/2015  E1.00 INCH       BUCHANAN           MO   PUBLIC

            LOCATION ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

PMURRAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
316 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             3 E ST. JOSEPH          39.77N 94.79W
06/21/2015  M1.00 INCH       BUCHANAN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THIS MIGHT BE A DUPLICATE REPORT. REPORT FROM TWITTER.

&&

CUTTER