Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Kansas City, MO

316 
WWUS53 KEAX 211836
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
136 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

MOC033-107-177-211900-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0127.000000T0000Z-150621T1900Z/
CARROLL MO-LAFAYETTE MO-RAY MO-
136 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN RAY...
NORTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE AND SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM
CDT...

AT 133 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MAYVIEW...AND
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARROLLTON...WAVERLY AND DOVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
PLEASANT HILL.

&&

LAT...LON 3929 9347 3929 9348 3928 9347 3925 9348
      3912 9352 3928 9394 3948 9384 3941 9343
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 288DEG 30KT 3898 9381

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

LG

260 
WWUS53 KEAX 211859
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
159 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

MOC033-107-177-211909-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0127.000000T0000Z-150621T1900Z/
CARROLL MO-LAFAYETTE MO-RAY MO-
159 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN RAY...NORTHEASTERN
LAFAYETTE AND SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 200 PM
CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CDT.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

LAT...LON 3929 9347 3929 9348 3928 9347 3925 9348
      3912 9352 3928 9394 3948 9384 3941 9343
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 288DEG 30KT 3891 9359

$$

LG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1244 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

Sct shwrs/storms ongoing across north-central Missouri this morning
as warm air advection on the heels of a veering low-level jet interacts
with a stalled frontal boundary. Within the past few hours...radar
trends have shown gradual weakening as convergence into the boundary
has faltered to some degree. In any event...current activity may
last another few hours before drier conditions temporary move into
the area towards sunrise. Meanwhile to our northwest...IR satellite
showing notable cooling across southern South Dakota/northern
Nebraska this morning as another MCS is developing in northwest flow
aloft. Quick look at the various high-res models suggests convection
will continue to move southeast through the morning...before possibly
moving into our area by early afternoon. If this were not enough...a
secondary round of storms will be possible later this afternoon as
the lingering front begins to slowly retreat northward with time.
With either round...strong wind fields aloft combined with moderate
levels of instability will support isolated severe storms with strong
winds and large hail remaining the main concerns once again. Latest
SPC Day 1 outlook places a good majority of the region in Slgt Risk
and NAM/GFS bulk shear and instability forecasts certainly support
the outlooked area.

Temp forecast is defiantly a tricky one for today as previously
mentioned frontal boundary is forecast to lift north towards the IA
state line by tonight. Meanwhile...early morning convection likely
reinforced this boundary to some degree and any developing convection
later on may also prevent much northward movement. For now...have
played current high temp forecast on the conservative side with
mid/upper 80s expected across north-central MO...with low 90s likely
from the Missouri Rvr south. Current fcst calls for sub advisory heat
indices...however warm and muggy conditions will definitely be in
place across the Metro region this afternoon.

Frontal boundary expected to lift north of the area early Monday
morning with any overnight convection likely coming to an end
towards daybreak at the latest. This will set the stage for what appears
to be another very hot day as 850 thermal ridging overspreads the
area. Surprisingly...latest MOS numbers have come down a few degrees
cooler than in previous runs...but cannot see any real reason to
believe low to mid 90s won/t be possible by Monday afternoon. In any
event...downslope flow combined with deep layers mixing should
support heat indices again meeting criteria across the KC Metro. Have
elected to hold off on an advisory right now based on limited model
support...however if signals (thermal ridging/downslope winds) remain
in place with 12z model runs...dayshift could easily go with one this
afternoon.

By Tuesday...models suggest cold front will once again sag south
across the region as a shortwave trough moves through the upper Miss
Rvr Vly and sfc high pressure builds south across the Northern
Plains. The end result will be cooler temps by midweek as frontal
boundary stalls across the fcst region. As was mentioned
yesterday...signals for an extended wet period continue to present
themselves this morning as ample amounts of low-level moisture move
north thanks to a wide open Gulf of Mexico. This combined with the
migration of several shortwave disturbances embedded in northwest
flow aloft will set the stage for repeated rounds of shwrs/storms.
Will have to watch this closely based on possible heavy rain
concerns and already elevated water levels on area rivers and
streams.

Towards the end of the week/early weekend...stalled front expected to
finally move through the area as strong high pressure builds south
from the Northern Plains. This should lead to slightly below normal
temperatures heading into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

Vicinity thunderstorms currently keep bubbling up near the terminals
and will persist well into the afternoon hours. This will likely
result in a combination of VFR and MVFR ceilings as the storms move
through this afternoon with the potential for quick periods of IFR.
After the storms dissipate later today expect VFR conditions into
the evening hours before the strong winds ahead of an approaching
cold front advect some MVFR ceilings in late tonight. Ceilings should
clear out tomorrow morning as the gusty winds increase in speed from
the southwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
452 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-221000-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
452 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
 EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH
 OF A SEDALIA TO ST. JOSEPH LINE ALTHOUGH, ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
 WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THAT LINE. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE
 FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
 DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

 HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
 TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1216 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S HENRIETTA           39.21N 93.94W
06/21/2015                   RAY                MO   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES UPROOTED NEAR HENRIETTA. TIME AND LOCATION
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

PMURRAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1226 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S LEXINGTON           39.17N 93.87W
06/21/2015  E0.00 INCH       LAFAYETTE          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL SO FAR.

&&

PMURRAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1229 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 PM     FLASH FLOOD      EXCELSIOR SPRINGS       39.34N 94.23W
06/21/2015                   CLAY               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FISHING RIVER COMING OUT OF ITS BANKS AND FLOODING
            STREETS IN DOWNTOWN EXCELSIOR SPRINGS.

&&

PMURRAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1252 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     HAIL             DE KALB                 39.59N 94.93W
06/21/2015  E4.25 INCH       BUCHANAN           MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            RELAYED THROUGH THE COUNTY EM.

1245 PM     TSTM WND GST     DE KALB                 39.59N 94.93W
06/21/2015  E60.00 MPH       BUCHANAN           MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ESTIMATED BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH. RELAYED THROUGH COUNTY
            EM.

&&

CUTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1254 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1248 PM     HAIL             3 W FAUCETT             39.60N 94.86W
06/21/2015  E1.00 INCH       BUCHANAN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PMURRAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
104 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0102 PM     HAIL             DE KALB                 39.59N 94.93W
06/21/2015  E2.75 INCH       BUCHANAN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            35 TO 40 MPH WINDS.

&&

PMURRAY