Storm Warning 109, NWS Anchorage, AK

739 
FZAK62 PAFC 181209
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
309 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-190245-
309 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 996 MB LOW NEAR 59N 180 DISSIPATES THIS AFTERNOON. A 976 MB LOW
NEAR 53N 165E MOVES TO 55N 177E AT 971 MB THIS EVENING THEN TO
63N 166W AT 977 MB THU EVENING. A 995 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
MOVE TO 47N 178E THU EVENING.

$$

PKZ411-190245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
309 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 TO 28 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 TO 27 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 55N.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ412-190245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
309 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ413-190245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
309 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING S 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 TO 30 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

PKZ414-190245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
309 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 28 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 26 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

990 
FZAK62 PAFC 182353
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
253 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-191430-
253 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 971 MB LOW NEAR 55N 172E WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO 60N 171W AT 973 MB
THU AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO NORTON SOUND THU NIGHT
AT 980 MB AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. A
995 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR 48N 179W THU EVENING AND MOVE TO 57N
155W AT 988 MB FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-191430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
253 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW TO NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 27 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 TO 27 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

PKZ412-191430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
253 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.

$$

PKZ413-191430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
253 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 TO 30 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.

$$

PKZ414-191430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
253 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

034 
FZAK62 PAFC 191205
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
305 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-200230-
305 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 972 MB LOW NEAR 57N 177W WILL MOVE INTO NORTON SOUND THU NIGHT
AT 979 MB...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE WEAKENING TO 988
MB FRI NIGHT. A 996 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW NEAR 44N 174E THU
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 55N 163W AT 985 MB FRI AFTERNOON...THEN
MOVE TO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA FRI EVENING.

$$

PKZ411-200230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
305 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 TO 27 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF
55N.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ412-200230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
305 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY W OF 175W.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 27 FT.

$$

PKZ413-200230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
305 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 TO 29 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 TO 20 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 28 FT.

$$

PKZ414-200230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
305 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 27 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

320 
FZAK62 PAFC 191857 AAA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
957 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

UPDATED 414

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-200415-
957 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 972 MB LOW NEAR 57N 177W WILL MOVE INTO NORTON SOUND THU NIGHT
AT 979 MB...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE WEAKENING TO 988
MB FRI NIGHT. A 996 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW NEAR 44N 174E THU
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 55N 163W AT 985 MB FRI AFTERNOON...THEN
MOVE TO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA FRI EVENING.

$$

PKZ411-200415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
957 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 TO 27 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF
55N. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ412-200415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
957 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY W OF 175W. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 27 FT.

$$

PKZ413-200415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
957 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 TO 29 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 TO 20 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 28 FT.

$$

PKZ414-200415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
957 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 27 FT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

944 
FZAK62 PAFC 200009
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
309 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-201400-
309 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 973 MB LOW NEAR 61N 169W WILL MOVE TO 65N 162W AT 990 MB MIDDAY
FRI...THEN DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH. A 991 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW
NEAR 50N 174W LATE THU NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 56N 158W AT 986 MB FRI
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE TO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA FRI EVENING. A
1012 MB LOW NEAR 54N 168E FRI AFTERNOON MOVES TO 58N 180 AT 1011
MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-201400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
309 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT. 
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF
55N.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.

$$

PKZ412-201400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
309 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ413-201400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
309 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-201400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
309 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 28 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
505 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE MAINLAND
WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW CENTER
THROUGH SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE GULF. THIS IS A VERY DRY TROUGH
HOWEVER...WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES (WITH A FEW
NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS)...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
LOW CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF JUST SOUTHEAST OF
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...WHICH ALONG WITH A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT
PRODUCED FROM COLD AIR ENTRENCHED THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH MAINLAND IS
BRINGING GUSTY GAP WINDS TO THE GULF COAST. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS TOWARD
KAMISHAK BAY WATERS WHERE STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE BLOWING MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TO THE WEST...A FRONT LIES DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM JUST
SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND TO BRISTOL BAY...WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GULF IN FAST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
BERING...A STRONGER WEATHER FRONT IS MOVING NORTH AND EAST TOWARD
THE ALASKA MAINLAND. FINALLY...OUT TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF ASIA
TO THE NORTH OF JAPAN...A STRONG JET STREAK IS MOVING NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE WESTERN BERING AND WILL HELP TO INITIATE A STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE CENTER TONIGHT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING
AND ALEUTIANS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF CORDOVA DRIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS
SLOWLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST BERING AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MOVES NORTH AND
EAST TO THE CENTRAL BERING AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
WEDNESDAY...MERGING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT NORTHERN
BERING-TO-BRISTOL BAY FRONT. AS THIS MERGER OCCURS WEDNESDAY...THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA TOWARD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND WILL BRING A THREAT OF SNOWFALL TO THE
SOUTHCENTRAL REGION LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE
REMNANT FRONT OVER THE BERING THEN SERVES AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR
THE STRENGTHENING LOW THAT FORMS SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA. THIS LOW WILL THEN
PROGRESS NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN ALASKA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIKEWISE MOVE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND GULF WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRONG JET
STREAK...AND MAY PRODUCE A MYRIAD OF WEATHER HAZARDS THAT INCLUDE
STRONG WINDS...SNOW...AND/OR RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...BARREN
ISLANDS...AND EASTERN KENAI AS A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
MAINTAINS PRESSURE GRADIENTS. WINDS MAY ALSO STRENGTHEN SOME AS
UPPER WIND SUPPORT KICKS IN THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THESE
CONDITIONS ON WED MORNING. STRATUS AND FOG WITH SOME FLURRIES
OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL/MAT
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING...DISSIPATING SOME THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN REDEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH
WED MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ON WED/WED
NIGHT WILL BRING RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND WED MORNING THEN SNOW TO
THE MAINLAND WED EVENING/NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF WED
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MOST OF THE MAINLAND WILL REMAIN UNDER RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND
COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON THE OTHER HAND...
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST AND ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...AS A QUICK HITTING "POLAR FRONT" TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE COAST. AFTER THIS CLEARS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...WE
SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO A WEAK WARM FRONT COMING ACROSS THE BERING.
THIS SHOULD BRING SNOW TO THE AREA STARTING ALONG THE WESTERN
CAPES BY THIS EVENING. THE ZONAL JET PUSHES THE LOW CENTER ITSELF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE BERING AND BRINGS THE REST OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION INTO THE MAINLAND ON WED. WHILE MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SNOW...WE COULD START TO SEE SOME RAIN MIX
IN ALONG THE COAST AND ALASKA PENINSULA AS A WEAK PUSH OF WARM AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A POTENT ZONAL JET OVER THE ALEUTIANS WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE
PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST FRONTAL IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING...AND WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY LATE THIS EVENING.
GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TODAY...AND DIMINISH TO SMALL-CRAFT
WINDS WHEN TRACKING INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. IT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BRING THE FIRST SHOT OF APPRECIABLE WARM AIR TO THE
BERING THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN ABOUT A WEEK. PRECIPITATION HAS
ALREADY CHANGED OVER TO ALL RAIN OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...AND
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
TONIGHT...AND RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING. INITIALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN QUICKLY INTENSIFY TO STORM FORCE WINDS AS THEY
SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT MODELS ARE
ALL KEYING IN ON THIS FEATURE AND ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH COLDER AIR
ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LOW WRAPPING INTO THIS
SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT.
THE LEADING FRONT WILL SPREAD STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN FROM
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
TRAILING STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING...AS THE PARENT LOW TRACKS INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST IS A STORM SYSTEM
THAT QUICKLY DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS STACKED SYSTEM ADVECTS A MUCH WARMER AIR
MASS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE BERING WHICH WILL BRING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING...INITIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS THE
PRIBILOFS AND ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND EARLY THURSDAY...WITH
THE WARMER AIR ALOFT SURGING INLAND AT A FASTER PACE. THERE IS
STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
MOVES...SO CONSERVATIVE EDITS WERE MADE TODAY USING A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS WHICH INTRODUCES THE WARMER CONDITIONS FURTHER
NORTH. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN COLD AIR ADVECTS
IN ON FRIDAY. EARLY THURSDAY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF AND SOUTHERN KENAI WITH SNOW ALONG THE NORTHERN
KENAI BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE LOW LOSES MOMENTUM AS IT CROSSES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF.

COASTAL FLOODING COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS A SERIES OF STORMS SYSTEMS TRACK QUICKLY FROM WEST TO
EAST...THEY WILL BRING A LONG FETCH OF WESTERLY SWELL TOWARD THE
WEST COAST. THE SECOND OF THESE STORMS IS THE STRONGER OF THE TWO
AND TAKES THE MORE FAVORABLE TRACK FOR A HIGHER SURGE. MODELS ARE
NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM SURGE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE
HIGHEST ASTRONIMCAL TIDE. THAT SAID...THE EXACT SURGE WOULD BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STORM TRACK. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN EXACT TIMING AND HEIGHT OF THE SURGE...IT IS LIKELY
THAT WATER LEVELS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WEST COAST
LATER THIS WEEK.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING ON SUNDAY.
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM WAS SLOWED DOWN BY THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AS
RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS AMPLIFIES OVER THE MAINLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...121 126-130 180-181
         STORM WARNING...130 178
         GALE WARNING...121 127 129 131-132 138 150 155 165 170
                        172-177 181 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...KH/MMC