High Surf Advisory 4, NWS Anchorage, AK

963 
WHAK42 PAFC 181332
CFWALU

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
432 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015


AKZ155-191345-
/O.CON.PAFC.SU.Y.0004.151119T1500Z-151120T0100Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
432 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM AKST
THURSDAY FROM KUSKOKWIM BAY SOUTHWARD...

* LOCATION...ALONG THE COAST FROM KUSKOKWIM BAY SOUTHWARD.

* WAVES AND SURF...SEAS 8 TO 12 FT WITH A COASTAL SURGE BETWEEN 
  1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE MAXIMUM ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. 

* TIMING...ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE HIGH 
  TIDE CYCLE THURSDAY. 

* IMPACTS...HIGH WAVE ACTION WITH SOME BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$

AKZ161-191345-
/O.CON.PAFC.SU.Y.0004.151119T1500Z-151120T0100Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
432 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM AKST
THURSDAY ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF BRISTOL BAY...

* LOCATION...ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF BRISTOL BAY

* WAVES AND SURF...SEAS 7 TO 9 FT WITH A COASTAL SURGE BETWEEN 1 
  TO 2 FEET ABOVE MAXIMUM ASTRONOMICAL TIDE 

* TIMING...ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE HIGH 
  TIDE CYCLE THURSDAY. 

* IMPACTS...HIGH WAVE ACTION WITH SOME BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$

628 
WHAK42 PAFC 190042
CFWALU

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
342 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

AKZ155-200045-
/O.CON.PAFC.SU.Y.0004.151119T1500Z-151120T0100Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
342 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM AKST
THURSDAY FROM KUSKOKWIM BAY SOUTHWARD...

* LOCATION...ALONG THE COAST FROM KUSKOKWIM BAY SOUTHWARD.

* WAVES AND SURF...SEAS 8 TO 12 FT WITH A COASTAL SURGE BETWEEN 
  1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE MAXIMUM ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. 

* TIMING...ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE HIGH 
  TIDE CYCLE THURSDAY. 

* IMPACTS...HIGH WAVE ACTION WITH SOME BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$

AKZ161-200045-
/O.CON.PAFC.SU.Y.0004.151119T1500Z-151120T0100Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
342 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM AKST
THURSDAY ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF BRISTOL BAY...

* LOCATION...ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF BRISTOL BAY.

* WAVES AND SURF...SEAS 7 TO 9 FT WITH A COASTAL SURGE BETWEEN 1 
  TO 2 FEET ABOVE MAXIMUM ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. 

* TIMING...ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE HIGH 
  TIDE CYCLE THURSDAY. 

* IMPACTS...HIGH WAVE ACTION WITH SOME BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$

943 
WHAK42 PAFC 191322
CFWALU

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
422 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

AKZ155-200100-
/O.CON.PAFC.SU.Y.0004.151119T1500Z-151120T0100Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
422 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO
4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FROM KUSKOKWIM BAY SOUTHWARD...

* LOCATION...ALONG THE COAST FROM KUSKOKWIM BAY SOUTHWARD.

* WAVES AND SURF...SEAS 8 TO 12 FT WITH A COASTAL SURGE BETWEEN 
  1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE MAXIMUM ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. 

* TIMING...ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE HIGH TIDE
  CYCLE TODAY.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WAVE ACTION WITH SOME BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$

AKZ161-200100-
/O.CON.PAFC.SU.Y.0004.151119T1500Z-151120T0100Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
422 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO
4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF BRISTOL BAY...

* LOCATION...ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF BRISTOL BAY.

* WAVES AND SURF...SEAS 7 TO 9 FT WITH A COASTAL SURGE BETWEEN 1
  TO 2 FEET ABOVE MAXIMUM ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.

* TIMING...ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE HIGH TIDE
  CYCLE TODAY.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WAVE ACTION WITH SOME BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$

331 
WHAK42 PAFC 200038
CFWALU

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
338 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

AKZ155-161-200145-
/O.CAN.PAFC.SU.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-151120T0100Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-BRISTOL BAY-
338 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
505 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE MAINLAND
WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW CENTER
THROUGH SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE GULF. THIS IS A VERY DRY TROUGH
HOWEVER...WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES (WITH A FEW
NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS)...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
LOW CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF JUST SOUTHEAST OF
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...WHICH ALONG WITH A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT
PRODUCED FROM COLD AIR ENTRENCHED THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH MAINLAND IS
BRINGING GUSTY GAP WINDS TO THE GULF COAST. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS TOWARD
KAMISHAK BAY WATERS WHERE STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE BLOWING MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TO THE WEST...A FRONT LIES DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM JUST
SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND TO BRISTOL BAY...WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GULF IN FAST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
BERING...A STRONGER WEATHER FRONT IS MOVING NORTH AND EAST TOWARD
THE ALASKA MAINLAND. FINALLY...OUT TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF ASIA
TO THE NORTH OF JAPAN...A STRONG JET STREAK IS MOVING NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE WESTERN BERING AND WILL HELP TO INITIATE A STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE CENTER TONIGHT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING
AND ALEUTIANS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF CORDOVA DRIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS
SLOWLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST BERING AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MOVES NORTH AND
EAST TO THE CENTRAL BERING AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
WEDNESDAY...MERGING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT NORTHERN
BERING-TO-BRISTOL BAY FRONT. AS THIS MERGER OCCURS WEDNESDAY...THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA TOWARD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND WILL BRING A THREAT OF SNOWFALL TO THE
SOUTHCENTRAL REGION LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE
REMNANT FRONT OVER THE BERING THEN SERVES AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR
THE STRENGTHENING LOW THAT FORMS SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA. THIS LOW WILL THEN
PROGRESS NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN ALASKA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIKEWISE MOVE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND GULF WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRONG JET
STREAK...AND MAY PRODUCE A MYRIAD OF WEATHER HAZARDS THAT INCLUDE
STRONG WINDS...SNOW...AND/OR RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...BARREN
ISLANDS...AND EASTERN KENAI AS A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
MAINTAINS PRESSURE GRADIENTS. WINDS MAY ALSO STRENGTHEN SOME AS
UPPER WIND SUPPORT KICKS IN THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THESE
CONDITIONS ON WED MORNING. STRATUS AND FOG WITH SOME FLURRIES
OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL/MAT
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING...DISSIPATING SOME THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN REDEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH
WED MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ON WED/WED
NIGHT WILL BRING RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND WED MORNING THEN SNOW TO
THE MAINLAND WED EVENING/NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF WED
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MOST OF THE MAINLAND WILL REMAIN UNDER RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND
COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON THE OTHER HAND...
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST AND ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...AS A QUICK HITTING "POLAR FRONT" TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE COAST. AFTER THIS CLEARS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...WE
SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO A WEAK WARM FRONT COMING ACROSS THE BERING.
THIS SHOULD BRING SNOW TO THE AREA STARTING ALONG THE WESTERN
CAPES BY THIS EVENING. THE ZONAL JET PUSHES THE LOW CENTER ITSELF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE BERING AND BRINGS THE REST OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION INTO THE MAINLAND ON WED. WHILE MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SNOW...WE COULD START TO SEE SOME RAIN MIX
IN ALONG THE COAST AND ALASKA PENINSULA AS A WEAK PUSH OF WARM AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A POTENT ZONAL JET OVER THE ALEUTIANS WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE
PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST FRONTAL IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING...AND WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY LATE THIS EVENING.
GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TODAY...AND DIMINISH TO SMALL-CRAFT
WINDS WHEN TRACKING INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. IT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BRING THE FIRST SHOT OF APPRECIABLE WARM AIR TO THE
BERING THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN ABOUT A WEEK. PRECIPITATION HAS
ALREADY CHANGED OVER TO ALL RAIN OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...AND
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
TONIGHT...AND RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING. INITIALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN QUICKLY INTENSIFY TO STORM FORCE WINDS AS THEY
SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT MODELS ARE
ALL KEYING IN ON THIS FEATURE AND ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH COLDER AIR
ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LOW WRAPPING INTO THIS
SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT.
THE LEADING FRONT WILL SPREAD STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN FROM
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
TRAILING STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING...AS THE PARENT LOW TRACKS INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST IS A STORM SYSTEM
THAT QUICKLY DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS STACKED SYSTEM ADVECTS A MUCH WARMER AIR
MASS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE BERING WHICH WILL BRING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING...INITIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS THE
PRIBILOFS AND ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND EARLY THURSDAY...WITH
THE WARMER AIR ALOFT SURGING INLAND AT A FASTER PACE. THERE IS
STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
MOVES...SO CONSERVATIVE EDITS WERE MADE TODAY USING A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS WHICH INTRODUCES THE WARMER CONDITIONS FURTHER
NORTH. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN COLD AIR ADVECTS
IN ON FRIDAY. EARLY THURSDAY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF AND SOUTHERN KENAI WITH SNOW ALONG THE NORTHERN
KENAI BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE LOW LOSES MOMENTUM AS IT CROSSES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF.

COASTAL FLOODING COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS A SERIES OF STORMS SYSTEMS TRACK QUICKLY FROM WEST TO
EAST...THEY WILL BRING A LONG FETCH OF WESTERLY SWELL TOWARD THE
WEST COAST. THE SECOND OF THESE STORMS IS THE STRONGER OF THE TWO
AND TAKES THE MORE FAVORABLE TRACK FOR A HIGHER SURGE. MODELS ARE
NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM SURGE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE
HIGHEST ASTRONIMCAL TIDE. THAT SAID...THE EXACT SURGE WOULD BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STORM TRACK. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN EXACT TIMING AND HEIGHT OF THE SURGE...IT IS LIKELY
THAT WATER LEVELS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WEST COAST
LATER THIS WEEK.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING ON SUNDAY.
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM WAS SLOWED DOWN BY THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AS
RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS AMPLIFIES OVER THE MAINLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...121 126-130 180-181
         STORM WARNING...130 178
         GALE WARNING...121 127 129 131-132 138 150 155 165 170
                        172-177 181 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...KH/MMC