Gale Warning 786, NWS Anchorage, AK

936 
FZAK51 PAFC 191239
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
339 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200130-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF TODAY AND QUICKLY
MOVE TO THE EASTERN GULF BY FRI MORNING. A 988 MB LOW OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA FRI AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 25 NM NORTHEAST OF
WHITTIER FRI NIGHT AT 980 MB.


$$

PKZ119-200130-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19
FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ120-200130-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 25 KT ALONG THE COAST. WINDS
BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SNOW WITH RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND DIMINISHING TO 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 12
FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ121-200130-
RESURRECTION BAY-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
WITH SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-200130-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. SNOW THIS MORNING WITH RAIN AND SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. FREEZING
SPRAY THIS MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-200130-
PORT VALDEZ-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ127-200130-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH THIS MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-200130-
VALDEZ ARM-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS
MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-200130-
PASSAGE CANAL-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ130-200130-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR KAMISHAK
BAY.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-200130-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ132-200130-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-200130-
CHINIAK BAY-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-200130-
MARMOT BAY-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-200130-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS BUILDING TO
18 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-200130-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW BECOMING MIXED WITH
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-200130-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-200130-
KACHEMAK BAY-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

273 
FZAK51 PAFC 200023
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
323 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-201300-
323 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN GULF BY
LATE FRI MORNING. A 988 MB LOW NEAR CHIGNIK FRI AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO NEAR VALDEZ LATE FRI NIGHT AT 983 MB...THEN MOVE INLAND.

$$

PKZ119-201300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
323 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ120-201300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
323 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING
SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.SAT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ121-201300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
323 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHING
TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-201300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
323 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-201300-
PORT VALDEZ-
323 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-201300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
323 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW WIND 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-201300-
VALDEZ ARM-
323 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-201300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
323 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ130-201300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
323 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ131-201300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
323 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ132-201300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
323 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ136-201300-
CHINIAK BAY-
323 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-201300-
MARMOT BAY-
323 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ138-201300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
323 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ139-201300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
323 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO
30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ140-201300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
323 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-201300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
323 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHING
TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
516 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE WITH TWO MAIN LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THE LEADING LOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN BERING WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING IN OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE IT IS
BRINGING SNOW TO THE AREA. A SECOND MORE INTENSE LOW IS OVER THE
WESTERN BERING WITH ITS FRONT MOVING IN OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
BOTH SYSTEMS ARE BRINGING IN WARMER AIR WITH THE SECOND WARM
ENOUGH TO TRANSITION THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN. AHEAD OF THE
FRONTS OUT OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SITS DROPPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO BEFORE THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID RANGE WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE PROBLEMS COME WITH
DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE DEEPER SYSTEM THAT MOVES
IN THURSDAY. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE WARMER SOLUTIONS BRINGING RAIN
AS FAR INLAND AS THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WHILE THE NAM KEEPS
THE AREA MORE SNOW WITH THE EC IN THE MIDDLE. THESE DIFFERENCES
RESULT IN LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO IF OR WHEN SNOW WILL BECOME MIXED
WITH RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THIS MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEGIN AS THE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WEAKENS. A WEATHER FRONT MOVING
ACROSS SW ALASKA WILL BRING SNOW TO MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SW KENAI PEN THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH THU MORNING AFTER UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE...THOUGH SW FLOW IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER WILL
CONTINUE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW ALONG THE CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF SNOW SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THU AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT FROM THE WEST. FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY DURING THAT
TIME FRAME. SNOW WILL LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY HEAVY ALSO ALONG THE
EASTERN KENAI (BY THU AFTERNOON) AND VALDEZ THU NIGHT. TEMPS WARM
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT AND WILL
BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE COOK INLET
REGION...ANCHORAGE BOWL(THU NIGHT)...AND NORTH GULF COAST. PERIODS
OF BLOWING SNOW MAY DROP VISIBILITIES BECOME ONE HALF MILE AT
TIMES THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS TEMPS WILL WARM UP RATHER QUICKLY
TO ABOVE FREEZING AND EVEN MIX WITH RAIN BY THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

GALE TO STORM FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ON THU ALONG WITH STRONG GAP FLOWS
ACROSS TURNAGAIN ARM/PORTAGE VALLEY AND TO A LESSER EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A VERY ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL USHER
IN A SERIES OF STRONG SYSTEMS TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM IN THIS SERIES IS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING LOW IN THE NORTHERN
BERING THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SNOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR TODAY...BEFORE BRIEFLY DIMINISHING
AS THE FRONT TRACKS FURTHER EASTWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM COAST FROM KIPNUK NORTH...EASTERLY
WINDS AND HEAVIER SNOWFALL THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CAUSED BY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...DROPPING
VISIBILITIES TO A HALF MILE AT TIMES WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP CHANGE SOME
COASTAL AREAS OVER TO RAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WARMER
MARINE AIR MOVES IN. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SPREADING RAIN INTO MOST OF BRISTOL BAY AND
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...WITH SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SECOND FRONT WILL
COINCIDE WITH A HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WITH THE THREAT FOR SOME MINOR
COASTAL EROSION FROM THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST TO THE
KUSKOKWIM BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAKENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING WILL TRACK INLAND AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS MORNING. A MUCH
STRONGER STORM FORCE LOW TRACKS OVER THE WESTERN BERING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ASSOCIATED LEADING FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIANS DURING THE DAY TODAY. COLDER
AIR WILL BEGIN WRAPPING INTO THIS SYSTEM ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW...HELPING TO MIX DOWN SOME STRONGER GUSTS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FLANK OF THE LOW. THE STRONGEST CORE OF STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
BERING/ALEUTIANS...ALTHOUGH STRONG SOUTHERLY GALES WILL CROSS INTO
THE EASTERN BERING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A SWATCH OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT MOST LOCATIONS AS THIS FRONT MOVES EAST
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
ENTERING INTO THE MID-TERM...THE PATTERN OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH MULTIPLE ROBUST LOWS MOVING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.

AT THE START OF THE MID-TERM ON THURSDAY EVENING...THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL BE PUSHING
INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND RAPIDLY MOVING INTO INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SYNOPTICALLY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MOSTLY SNOW IS
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX ALONG
THE BRISTOL BAY COAST. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN AS ALL SNOW OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR AREAS WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG COASTAL AREAS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SUSITNA VALLEY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF
FRIDAY EVENING. FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING STRONG WINDS ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DOWNSLOPING OF PRECIPITATION INTO
THE ANCHORAGE AREA. WITH THAT BEING SAID...ANCHORAGE SHOULD STILL
SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM
ARE EXPECTED IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

BEHIND THIS LOW...THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THIS FEATURE IN BOTH STRENGTH AND
LOCATION. THE 12Z GFS AND GEM RUNS DEVELOPED A 965MB LOW OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS THAT MOVES RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO MAINLAND
ALASKA. THE 12Z NAM AND EC DEVELOPED A WEAKER 990 MB LOW SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA THAT WOULD DEEPEN TO 980MB OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF BY SATURDAY NIGHT. 18Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM HAVE
NOW SWUNG FROM THOSE SOLUTIONS AS WELL WITH THE NAM PLACING A
975MB LOW IN THE BERING AND THE GFS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE EC.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS CREATES LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS POINT. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC...DECIDED TO NUDGE TO THE
EC SOLUTION WITH SOME GFS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA ON DAY 3.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE HAVING A GREAT DEAL OF DIFFICULTY WITH THE
FRIDAY SYSTEM...THEY ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A
970-975MB LOW INTO THE WESTERN BERING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WPC GUIDANCE CAPTURED THIS FEATURE WELL...THUS WAS USED
HEAVILY FOR DAYS 4-7.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...155.
         WINTER STORM WATCH...145.
         HIGH SURF ADVISORY...155 161.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...121 127-130 139 181
         STORM WARNING...150 155 170 173-175 177 178 185
         GALE WARNING...120 130-132 136-139 141 160 165 171
                        172 176179-181

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...RF/MMC