High Wind Watch 12, NWS Anchorage, AK

689 
WWAK72 PAFC 291333
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
433 AM AKST TUE DEC 29 2015

...A DAMAGING HIGH WIND EVENT POSSIBLE FOR SOME BRISTOL BAY
COMMUNITIES LATE TONIGHT...

.A POWERFUL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA
LATE TONIGHT THEN CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTH ACROSS
BRISTOL BAY AND TOWARDS CAPE NEWENHAM WEDNESDAY MORNING. INITIALLY
AHEAD OF THE LOW STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY THROUGH GAPS AND PASSES IN THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. AS THE
LOW PASSES BY...WINDS WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN CAPES AND NORTHERN
BRISTOL BAY COAST.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE A HIGH WIND EVENT...BUT
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW IMPACTFUL THE HIGH WIND EVENT MAY
BE. THERE IS LOW BUT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS
TO EXCEED 100 MPH LATE TONIGHT FOR INLAND AREAS OF BRISTOL BAY.

AKZ161-300245-
/O.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0012.151230T0900Z-151231T0300Z/
/O.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0016.151230T0600Z-151230T2100Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...
PILOT POINT
433 AM AKST TUE DEC 29 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
AKST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AKST
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...BRISTOL BAY REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF
  CHANNELED TERRAIN OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN
  RANGE...AS WELL AS ALONG THE WESTERN CAPES.

* WIND...40 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 TO 100 MPH...WITH LOW
  POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO BRIEFLY EXCEED 100 MPH LATE TONIGHT
  INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...EAST WINDS INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS 80 TO
  100 MPH DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH GAPS AND
  PASSES IN THE ALEUTIAN RANGE EXTENDING THROUGH INLAND BRISTOL
  BAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOW
  PASSAGE...WITH STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN CAPES
  AND BRISTOL BAY COAST.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY MOVE LOOSE OBJECTS AND DAMAGE 
  PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
538 AM AKST MON DEC 28 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALOFT THERE IS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF
EXTENDING TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN ALASKA. WHILE
UPSTREAM THERE IS A NEGATIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN BERING THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOWER ALASKA PENINSULA
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS FEATURE IS REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE WITH A CLOSED TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMING OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA. FURTHER UPSTREAM A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF ADAK THIS MORNING. THERE IS A VERY STRONG 195 KNOT
NORTHWESTERLY JET STREAM TRACKING OFF THE EASTERN ASIA REGION
DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE JET STREAM TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE GULF. THIS IS BRINGING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE
SOUTHCENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF AREAS. THIS CAN BE SEEN WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE 40S FOR THE KENAI PENINSULA. THESE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE CREATING STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS THROUGH
THE ALASKA RANGE AND GUSTY CROSS BARRIER FLOW THROUGH THE SOUTH
MAINLAND REGION. THE SCATTEROMETER WIND IMAGERY IS SHOWING 40 TO
50 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS AREA.
WHILE THE RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES....THE UPPER WESTERN
KENAI PENINSULA AND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL ARE SHOWING DRIER
DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS.

THE BERING SEA AT THE SURFACE HAS A OCCLUDED LOW JUST WEST OF
ADAK THIS MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN BERING SEA. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE ON THE PACIFIC SIDE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ON
THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. THE REST OF THE BERING SEA HAS GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH A SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME. THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE CHAIN ARE IN THE MID 30S DEGREES AND BECOME COOLER AS YOU HEAD
FARTHER NORTH INTO THE BERING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE IN THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA. THE SCATTEROMETER WINDS IMAGERY SHOWED GALE
FORCE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FOR THE NORTHERN BERING SEA THIS MORNING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WEAK TRIPLE POINT LOW
FORMING JUST SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND AND THE WEATHER FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC THIS MORNING. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WAS THE NAM BEING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL
THERE WAS LITTLE MODEL CHANGE EXCEPT FOR SLOWING THE FRONT AS IT
TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION. THE MODELS DID STRUGGLE WITH
MOVING THE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE BRISTOL BAY INTERIOR A
LITTLE TO QUICKLY THIS MORNING. DILLINGHAM IS STILL REPORTING
TEMPERATURES AT 32 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT AND TO THE EAST...THE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
DEGREE RANGE. WHILE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AN OCCLUDED LOW
WILL TRACK TO THE CENTRAL BERING BY WEDNESDAY BUT OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING THE MODELS HAVE A WEAK LOW BECOMING SOME WHAT STATIONARY
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS SAME
TIME FRAME A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BE
TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS. LOOK FOR THE SAME SCENARIO WITH STRONG GUSTY
GAP WINDS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE...BARREN ISLANDS...TURNAGAIN
ARM AND PORTAGE REGION BY MIDWEEK. THE GFS/EC WERE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE NAM WAS QUICKER AND PUSHED THIS
SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM IS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH A VERY STRONG NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSING THE GULF
AND SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY. THE TIMING DOES LOOK A FEW HOURS SLOWER
THAN IT DID YESTERDAY...SO THIS DOES DELAY ARRIVAL OF STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG MUCH OF THE GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND UNTIL
MID TO LATE MORNING. WITH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT IT WILL
TAKE LONGER FOR WARMER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO VALDEZ...SO HAVE
UPPED SNOW AMOUNTS IN TOWN WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY WET SNOW EXPECTED
THIS MORNING BEFORE MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE SUSITNA VALLEY. AS FRONT MOVES INLAND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS THE AREA OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT FROM
WEST OF THE PARKS HIGHWAY TO AREAS NORTH OF TALKEETNA UP THROUGH
BROAD PASS. EXPANDED ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THIS AREA AND EXTENDED
ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
WILL KEEP THE SNOWFALL GOING. ACCORDINGLY...ALSO UPPED STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATION.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SECOND SHORT-WAVE ON
TUESDAY PROVIDING A BREAK IN THE SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT KEEPING MORE LOCALIZED
GAP WINDS BLOWING. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD ANOTHER VERY
STRONG FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY...THOUGH
WITH A DEEP LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THE WINDS COULD
BE EVEN STRONGER. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEPTH
AND TRACK OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH WINDS
AND HIGHER WITH POPS...BUT THE DETAILS (AND DECISIONS ON WARNINGS
OR ADVISORIES) WILL HAVE TO BE DELAYED UNTIL THIS FIRST EVENT IS
OVER AND WHEN MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE EXTREMELY ACTIVE AND ENERGETIC JET STREAM MOVING SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WILL MEAN DYNAMIC WEATHER. THE SYSTEM NOW
IMPACTING SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY
TODAY. SNOW AND RAIN WILL BECOME SHOWERY IN NATURE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THE BROAD PUSH OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL
WARM MOST AREAS WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH PREDOMINANT
P-TYPE BEING RAIN WITH THE SHOWERS. ANOTHER STRONG DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BRING ANOTHER
PUSH OF PRECIPITATION...WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF A
DILLINGHAM TO SLEETMUTE LINE...WITH THE P-TYPE ALL RAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE WITH WARM ADVECTION OFF OF THE PACIFIC
AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN AND ALASKA RANGES.

BY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH PACIFIC AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. THE GFS IS BY THE FAR THE MOST IMPRESSIVE WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND WOULD PACK QUITE THE PUNCH WITH RESPECT
TO STRONG TO HIGH WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MUCH OF IT
RAIN EXCEPT ALONG PARTS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST WHERE SNOW
WOULD BE MAINLY EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR CLOSE WATCHING AS
THIS EVENT NEARS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A STRONG LOW ABOUT 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK WILL BRING STRONG
GALE-FORCE WINDS WITH STORM-FORCE GUSTS TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
TODAY AND THEN THE EASTERN BERING...EASTERN ALEUTIANS...AND
ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS THE LOW BROADENS AND
WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...COLDER
AIR MOVING WEST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN SHOWERS
TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
WEDNESDAY BEGINS WITH ANOTHER POTENT NORTH PACIFIC SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE MAINLAND. THIS ONE WILL CROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA
INTO BRISTOL BAY WHILE SENDING A VIGOROUS FRONT AGAINST THE NORTH
GULF COAST. THE FRONT WILL EASILY BE STORM FORCE WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS. ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS...THE PARTICULAR LOW TRACK INTO THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION WINDS TO
COME DOWN INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. YET
ANOTHER CONTINUATION OF WARM AIR SURGING NORTHWARD AT THE SURFACE
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL RAIN AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN MOST AREAS.

FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND BEYOND...THE ACTIVE SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES WITH A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
MARCHING TOWARD SOUTHERN ALASKA. THESE DISTURBANCES ARE COMING OFF
A STOUT EAST ASIAN JET THAT EXTENDS WELL INTO THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EASILY SEEN...THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE OF THE FLOW AS THE DISTURBANCES APPROACH ALASKA IS NEVER
REALLY HANDLED WELL BY GUIDANCE. HOWEVER WE CAN EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BOUTS OF RAIN AND WIND FOR
THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 125 135.
MARINE...STORM 119 125
         GALE 120 128 129 130 131 132 138 139 140 141 150 155 165
              170 172 173 174 176 177 178 180 181 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...MTL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1152 AM AKST MON DEC 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0921 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 W WHITTIER            60.79N 148.81W
12/28/2015  M91.00 MPH                          AK   MESONET

            41 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO 91 MPH REPORTED AT THE WHITTIER
            ACCESS ROAD AT TUNNEL MESONET STAION. TUNNEL IS REPORTED
            TO BE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WINDS.

&&

RDUELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
106 PM AKST MON DEC 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST W MCHUGH CREEK RECREATI 61.02N 149.74W
12/28/2015  M79.00 MPH                          AK   MESONET

            SUSTAINED 61 MPH GUSTING TO 79 MPH MEASURED BY MCHUGH
            CREEK MESONET

&&

RDUELL