Alert archive / Missouri / Tornado Watches in 2014

Tornado Watch 103

April 27, 201410 counties in Arkansas; 13 counties in Missouri; 7 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Apr 27, 2014, 7:53 PM CDT for 10 counties in Arkansas; 13 counties in Missouri; 7 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 27, 2014, 7:53 PM CDT (00:53 UTC)
Expired: Apr 28, 2014, 2:00 AM CDT
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 2 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 30 counties

Clay County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Greene County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Randolph County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Dunklin County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Perry County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Scott County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Wayne County, MO, Dyer County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 119 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 60%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 40%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 10%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 70%

Warnings issued inside it

23 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 27, 8:13 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Carter, Ripley	3 hr
Apr 27, 8:39 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Butler, Wayne	3 hr
Apr 27, 8:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lawrence, Randolph	35 min
Apr 27, 9:04 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Lawrence, Randolph	3 hr
Apr 27, 9:19 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Bollinger	116 min
Apr 27, 9:22 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Craighead, Greene, Lawrence	38 min
Apr 27, 9:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay, Greene, Randolph	47 min
Apr 27, 9:39 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Lawrence	51 min
Apr 27, 9:47 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Clay, Randolph	3 hr
Apr 27, 10:01 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Clay, Greene	44 min
Apr 27, 10:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lawrence, Randolph	47 min
Apr 27, 10:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Mississippi	39 min
Apr 27, 11:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay, Greene	39 min
Apr 27, 11:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay, Greene, Lawrence, Randolph	51 min
Apr 27, 11:12 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Ripley	3 hr
Apr 27, 11:21 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Clay	4 hr
Apr 27, 11:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Randolph	43 min
Apr 27, 11:41 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Butler	3 hr
Apr 27, 11:52 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Stoddard	3 hr
Apr 28, 12:14 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Randolph	2 hr
Apr 28, 12:20 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Mississippi, New Madrid	3 hr
Apr 28, 12:24 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Bollinger, Carter, Wayne	3 hr
Apr 28, 1:47 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Cape Girardeau	3 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 00:00Z, 0.9 hours before the alert went out and 168 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2449 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -28 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 619 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 480 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 618 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 8.8
Supercell composite: 40.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

633 
WWUS20 KWNS 280054
SEL3  
SPC WW 280054
ARZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-280700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
755 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
  SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
  WEST TENNESSEE

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 755 PM
  UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF POPLAR BLUFF
MISSOURI TO 15 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MEMPHIS TENNESSEE.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 97...WW 98...WW 99...WW
100...WW 101...WW 102...

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AR WILL
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO WATCH AREA.  LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING...MAINTAINING THE RISK OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES.  LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 27, 7:15 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Faulkner	30 min
Apr 27, 7:29 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene, Mississippi and 1 more	91 min
Apr 27, 8:09 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Columbia, Lafayette, Miller, Union	66 min
Apr 27, 8:43 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clark, Clay, Cleburne, Cleveland, Conway, Craighead and 45 more	62 min
Apr 27, 9:59 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland, Columbia, Conway and 36 more	91 min
Apr 27, 10:33 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Arkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Conway and 27 more	7 hr
Apr 27, 11:08 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Columbia, Hempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller and 3 more	6 hr
Apr 27, 11:21 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arkansas, Baxter, Boone, Bradley, Calhoun, Carroll and 38 more	84 min
Apr 27, 11:41 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene, Mississippi and 2 more	94 min
Apr 28, 1:43 AM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Clay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene, Lawrence and 6 more	8 hr
Apr 28, 2:50 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 25 more	115 min
Apr 28, 4:21 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Ashley, Bradley, Chicot, Columbia, Drew, Union	54 min
Apr 28, 4:40 AM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Ashley, Chicot, Union	7 hr
Apr 28, 7:16 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Chicot	89 min
Apr 28, 9:53 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Chicot	97 min
Apr 27, 8:40 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barry, Barton, Bates, Benton, Camden, Carroll and 35 more	65 min
Apr 28, 1:43 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cape Girardeau, Franklin, Gasconade, Iron, Jefferson, Madison and 7 more	92 min
Apr 28, 12:54 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Audrain, Callaway, Clark, Crawford, Franklin, Gasconade and 19 more	2 hr
Apr 28, 1:11 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Audrain, Callaway, Clark, Crawford, Franklin, Gasconade and 16 more	7 hr
Apr 28, 3:13 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Mississippi, New Madrid, Perry, Scott and 1 more	2 hr
Apr 28, 3:38 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clark, Jefferson, Lincoln, Pike, Saint Charles, Saint Louis and 1 more	2 hr
Apr 28, 4:30 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clay, Macon, Montgomery, Robertson, Sumner	90 min
Apr 28, 6:57 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benton, Carroll, Cheatham, Chester, Crockett, Davidson and 25 more	2 hr
Apr 28, 12:05 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bedford, Giles, Hardin, Lawrence, Lewis, Lincoln and 5 more	115 min
Apr 28, 12:39 PM CDT	Tornado Watch PDS	SPC	Bedford, Chester, Coffee, Decatur, Franklin, Giles and 13 more	8 hr
Apr 28, 12:50 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anderson, Bedford, Bledsoe, Bradley, Campbell, Cannon and 33 more	55 min
Apr 28, 1:33 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Anderson, Bledsoe, Blount, Bradley, Campbell, Carter and 27 more	5 hr
Apr 28, 2:09 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Giles, Hardin, Lawrence, Lincoln, Wayne	66 min
Apr 28, 3:12 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Blount, Carter, Claiborne, Cocke, Grainger, Greene and 13 more	63 min
Apr 28, 5:22 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bradley, Coffee, Franklin, Giles, Grundy, Hamilton and 8 more	83 min
Apr 28, 5:37 PM CDT	Tornado Watch PDS	SPC	Anderson, Bledsoe, Blount, Bradley, Campbell, Claiborne and 25 more	6 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2014 Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2014 Tornado Watches in Tennessee, 2014 Every tornado watch in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.