Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 515

October 2, 201440 counties in Kansas; Pawnee County, Richardson County, Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Oct 2, 2014, 8:00 AM CDT for 40 counties in Kansas; Pawnee County, Richardson County, Nebraska. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 2, 2014, 8:00 AM CDT (13:00 UTC)
Expired
Oct 2, 2014, 3:00 PM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 42 counties

Allen County, KS, Anderson County, KS, Brown County, KS, Butler County, KS, Chase County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Elk County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Geary County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Labette County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Marion County, KS, Marshall County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Morris County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Osage County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Riley County, KS, Saline County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Washington County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Pawnee County, NE, Richardson County, NE

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 32 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
5%
Ten or more severe hail reports
50%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

5 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 2, 8:11 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTSedgwick34 min
Oct 2, 8:33 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPMarshall, Nemaha42 min
Oct 2, 8:46 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTChautauqua, Elk29 min
Oct 2, 9:09 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPBrown, Nemaha40 min
Oct 2, 9:15 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTChautauqua, Elk, Montgomery, Wilson16 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 1.0 hours before the alert went out and 82 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2014-10-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1377 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2014-10-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 226 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1377 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-76 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
736 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
62 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
226 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
200 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
4.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 1, 9:20 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Douglas, Franklin, Jefferson, Johnson, Leavenworth and 3 more25 min
Oct 1, 9:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBourbon, Linn, Miami6 hr
Oct 1, 9:59 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDecatur, Ellis, Gove, Graham, Lane, Ness and 9 more2 hr
Oct 1, 11:55 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDouglas, Franklin, Johnson, Leavenworth, Linn, Miami and 1 more95 min
Oct 1, 11:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCJewell, Mitchell, Osborne, Phillips, Rooks, Smith5 hr
Oct 2, 2:33 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Labette, Linn and 3 more117 min
Oct 2, 3:02 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Cloud, Jewell, Mitchell, Ottawa, Republic and 1 more118 min
Oct 2, 6:59 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Clay, Dickinson, Doniphan, Geary and 10 more61 min
Oct 2, 12:20 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBourbon, Cherokee, Crawford8 hr
Oct 2, 3:16 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCherokee59 min
Oct 2, 11:59 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Crawford, Dent and 17 more91 min
Oct 2, 1:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBollinger, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Crawford, Franklin, Gasconade and 13 more10 hr
Oct 2, 3:14 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBollinger, Cape Girardeau, Franklin, Iron, Jefferson, Madison and 7 more91 min
Oct 2, 5:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Dunklin, Mississippi, New Madrid, Pemiscot, Ripley and 2 more95 min
Oct 2, 5:48 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCButler, Dunklin, Mississippi, New Madrid, Pemiscot, Ripley and 2 more8 hr
Oct 2, 6:00 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBollinger, Cape Girardeau, Crawford, Franklin, Iron, Jefferson and 8 more90 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Kansas, 2014Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Nebraska, 2014Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.