Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Topeka, KS

590 
WWUS53 KTOP 021426
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
926 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

KSC131-021435-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-141002T1515Z/
NEMAHA-
926 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL NEMAHA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3975 9578 3990 9578 4000 9535 3971 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 1425Z 258DEG 40KT 3984 9564

$$

KSC013-021515-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-141002T1515Z/
BROWN-
926 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BROWN COUNTY
UNTIL 1015 AM CDT...

AT 922 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FAIRVIEW...AND
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HIAWATHA...HAMLIN AND ROBINSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3975 9578 3990 9578 4000 9535 3971 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 1425Z 258DEG 40KT 3984 9564

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

OMITT

950 
WWUS53 KTOP 021449
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
949 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

KSC013-021459-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-141002T1515Z/
BROWN-
949 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BROWN COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS 
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3975 9578 3990 9578 4000 9535 3971 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 1449Z 258DEG 40KT 3989 9530

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
637 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

Challenging forecast today.  Water vapor loop shows significant
upper trough across the northern and central High Plains moving east
with a large area of lift ahead of it.  Much of the clouds and
precipitation associated with the lift is in central and eastern
Nebraska this morning.  Other storms are ongoing across OK into
southeast KS to central MO ahead of another weak wave.

As the main upper trough approaches the surface front/inverted
trough currently from south central KS into southeast Nebraska,
expect redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms across eastern KS
during the morning hours.  Development along/ahead of cold front
would have some chance to be severe in east central KS early to
middle afternoon, with hail and wind the main hazards.

Short range models in pretty good agreement on timing of cold front
exiting our forecast area within an hour or so of 21Z Thursday.
Synthetic radar imagery output from these models indicate showers
likely persisting for a few hours behind the front so have kept
chance POPs in the southeast into the evening hours.

Water vapor loop shows next upper trough to affect area over
southern Alberta this morning.  All models bring this southeastward
in northwest flow aloft with associated lift entering north central
Kansas counties late Thursday night.  The shortwave is
weakening/losing amplitude as it moves through Nebraska, so would
expect a few hundredths at most from the dynamics associated with
this trough.

Temperatures tricky today with little to no rise expected behind the
boundary over north central KS and highs mainly in the 60s, but max
temps reaching near 80 in the southeast before the front comes
through.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

By Friday morning, models show a deep mid-level trough in place
across the central U.S.  Models are in fairly good agreement in
having an embedded shortwave develop within this mid-level trough,
skimming across northern and northeastern Kansas Friday morning.
Model soundings show some saturation in the low to mid levels along
with some isentropic lift present, so could see some scattered
light precipitation develop. However, there doesn't look to be any
instability in the area so kept the mention of rain showers and
increased PoPs a bit during the morning hours with dry conditions
expected by the afternoon.

This deepening mid-level trough also will result in a surge of
colder air into the region. A tight pressure gradient will set up
across the region on Friday as surface high pressure quickly
advances into the area, resulting in breezy northwesterly winds
gusting upwards of 25-35mph. With this decent caa in place,
continued to trend cooler with Friday high temperatures, dropping
them into the mid/upper 50s. Chilly conditions are expected Friday
night into Saturday morning as light northwesterly flow remains in
place and skies become mostly clear. With these expected conditions,
much of the forecast area has the potential to see some patchy
frost develop by Saturday morning. Slightly warmer conditions are expected
on Saturday as the mid-level trough axis advances well east of the
area and surface winds back toward the east and southeast through
the day, resulting in highs ranging from the upper 50s to middle
60s.

Models show a weak cold front tracking eastward through the area on
Sunday, but do not anticipate any precipitation with this frontal
passage. There also does not look to be much in the way of colder
air behind this boundary, so have Sunday high temperatures reaching
into the upper 60s to middle 70s. Have added slight chance PoPs on
Monday for far eastern Kansas as a passing shortwave may produce a
few scattered showers. Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain
dry through the middle of next week with high temperatures
rebounding into the mid 70s to mid 80s and low temperatures rising
into the 50s and 60s as southwesterly surface winds return to the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

Forecast difficult with boundary in the vicinity and areas of IFR
conditions near and just west of the boundary. Expect IFR
conditions to come in and out of the TAF sites this morning, and
thunderstorms to affect them as well later this morning into early
afternoon. Wind should shift to the northwest and strengthen to
15 kts gusting to 25 kts. Things should dry by late afternoon and
clear out this evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GDP
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...GDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
708 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-031215-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
708 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS MORNING WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER EASTERN
KANSAS LATER THIS MORNING. A FEW STORMS COULD HAVE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. AS A
RESULT...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
827 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WATERVILLE              39.69N 96.75W
10/02/2014  E1.00 INCH       MARSHALL           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            6 INCHES OF WATER ON HIGHWAY 77 AND HIGHWAY 9. A REPORTED
            1 INCH OF RAIN FELL IN 15 MINUTES.

&&

EH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
829 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 AM     HAIL             BLUE RAPIDS             39.68N 96.66W
10/02/2014  E1.75 INCH       MARSHALL           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL COVERING THE ROAD AT HIGHWAY 77 AND
            HIGHWAY 9 GOING INTO BLUE RAPIDS.

&&

EH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
840 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 AM     TSTM WND DMG     FRANKFORT               39.71N 96.42W
10/02/2014                   MARSHALL           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE REPORTED. LARGE TREE LIMBS AND A
            FEW TREES UPROOTED ONTO HOUSES. RELAYED BY EM.

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
851 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 AM     FLOOD            LAWRENCE                38.44N 95.08W
10/02/2014                   FRANKLIN           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            URBAN FLOODING ALONG MASSACHUSETTS STREET

&&

JJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
854 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 AM     FLOOD            LAWRENCE                38.96N 95.26W
10/02/2014                   DOUGLAS            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            URBAN FLOODING ALONG MASSACHUSETTS STREET

&&

JJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
900 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 N CORNING             39.67N 96.03W
10/02/2014  E60 MPH          NEMAHA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER ALSO REPORED VERY HEAVY RAIN

&&

JJOHNSON