Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
637 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

Challenging forecast today.  Water vapor loop shows significant
upper trough across the northern and central High Plains moving east
with a large area of lift ahead of it.  Much of the clouds and
precipitation associated with the lift is in central and eastern
Nebraska this morning.  Other storms are ongoing across OK into
southeast KS to central MO ahead of another weak wave.

As the main upper trough approaches the surface front/inverted
trough currently from south central KS into southeast Nebraska,
expect redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms across eastern KS
during the morning hours.  Development along/ahead of cold front
would have some chance to be severe in east central KS early to
middle afternoon, with hail and wind the main hazards.

Short range models in pretty good agreement on timing of cold front
exiting our forecast area within an hour or so of 21Z Thursday.
Synthetic radar imagery output from these models indicate showers
likely persisting for a few hours behind the front so have kept
chance POPs in the southeast into the evening hours.

Water vapor loop shows next upper trough to affect area over
southern Alberta this morning.  All models bring this southeastward
in northwest flow aloft with associated lift entering north central
Kansas counties late Thursday night.  The shortwave is
weakening/losing amplitude as it moves through Nebraska, so would
expect a few hundredths at most from the dynamics associated with
this trough.

Temperatures tricky today with little to no rise expected behind the
boundary over north central KS and highs mainly in the 60s, but max
temps reaching near 80 in the southeast before the front comes
through.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

By Friday morning, models show a deep mid-level trough in place
across the central U.S.  Models are in fairly good agreement in
having an embedded shortwave develop within this mid-level trough,
skimming across northern and northeastern Kansas Friday morning.
Model soundings show some saturation in the low to mid levels along
with some isentropic lift present, so could see some scattered
light precipitation develop. However, there doesn't look to be any
instability in the area so kept the mention of rain showers and
increased PoPs a bit during the morning hours with dry conditions
expected by the afternoon.

This deepening mid-level trough also will result in a surge of
colder air into the region. A tight pressure gradient will set up
across the region on Friday as surface high pressure quickly
advances into the area, resulting in breezy northwesterly winds
gusting upwards of 25-35mph. With this decent caa in place,
continued to trend cooler with Friday high temperatures, dropping
them into the mid/upper 50s. Chilly conditions are expected Friday
night into Saturday morning as light northwesterly flow remains in
place and skies become mostly clear. With these expected conditions,
much of the forecast area has the potential to see some patchy
frost develop by Saturday morning. Slightly warmer conditions are expected
on Saturday as the mid-level trough axis advances well east of the
area and surface winds back toward the east and southeast through
the day, resulting in highs ranging from the upper 50s to middle
60s.

Models show a weak cold front tracking eastward through the area on
Sunday, but do not anticipate any precipitation with this frontal
passage. There also does not look to be much in the way of colder
air behind this boundary, so have Sunday high temperatures reaching
into the upper 60s to middle 70s. Have added slight chance PoPs on
Monday for far eastern Kansas as a passing shortwave may produce a
few scattered showers. Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain
dry through the middle of next week with high temperatures
rebounding into the mid 70s to mid 80s and low temperatures rising
into the 50s and 60s as southwesterly surface winds return to the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

Forecast difficult with boundary in the vicinity and areas of IFR
conditions near and just west of the boundary. Expect IFR
conditions to come in and out of the TAF sites this morning, and
thunderstorms to affect them as well later this morning into early
afternoon. Wind should shift to the northwest and strengthen to
15 kts gusting to 25 kts. Things should dry by late afternoon and
clear out this evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GDP
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...GDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
708 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-031215-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
708 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS MORNING WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER EASTERN
KANSAS LATER THIS MORNING. A FEW STORMS COULD HAVE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. AS A
RESULT...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
305 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S GREELEY             38.35N 95.13W
10/01/2014                   ANDERSON           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED 6 INCH DIAMETER LIMBS DOWN FROM HEALTHY
            TREE. ALSO PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL. PROBABLY HAD WINDS OF
            60-70 MPH.

0415 PM     HAIL             5 SW GARNETT            38.23N 95.31W
10/01/2014  E1.75 INCH       ANDERSON           KS   PUBLIC

            A FEW GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL STONES COLLECTED BY CITIZEN. NO
            SEVERE STRENGTH WINDS ASSOCIATED AT THE TIME.

0618 PM     HAIL             NNW WESTMORELAND        39.40N 96.42W
10/01/2014  E1.00 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

0626 PM     HAIL             4 ENE WESTMORELAND      39.41N 96.35W
10/01/2014  E1.00 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO LARGER SIZE HAIL WITH 50-60 MPH WINDS

0728 PM     HAIL             2 SW HOLTON             39.44N 95.76W
10/01/2014  E1.25 INCH       JACKSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0728 PM     HAIL             7 SSW HOLTON            39.37N 95.79W
10/01/2014  E1.75 INCH       JACKSON            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AT 174 AND K ROAD.

0805 PM     HAIL             2 S HOLTON              39.44N 95.74W
10/01/2014  M1.75 INCH       JACKSON            KS   PUBLIC

0806 PM     HAIL             VALLEY FALLS            39.34N 95.46W
10/01/2014  E1.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

0815 PM     HAIL             NORTONVILLE             39.42N 95.33W
10/01/2014  E1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

0820 PM     HAIL             SE SILVER LAKE          39.10N 95.85W
10/01/2014  E1.75 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0820 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E GRIDLEY             38.10N 95.83W
10/01/2014                   COFFEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THREE POWER POLES AND LINES DOWN.

0825 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW TOPEKA             39.03N 95.70W
10/01/2014  M60.00 MPH       SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0840 PM     HAIL             WINCHESTER              39.32N 95.27W
10/01/2014  E1.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

0840 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW TOPEKA             39.02N 95.72W
10/01/2014                   SHAWNEE            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            3.5 INCH LIMBS DOWN IN SW TOPEKA

0841 PM     HAIL             BILLARD AIRPORT         39.08N 95.62W
10/01/2014  M1.00 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL OBSERVED BY FORECASTERS ON STATION AT
            TOPEKA NWS

0841 PM     TSTM WND GST     BILLARD AIRPORT         39.08N 95.62W
10/01/2014  M66.00 MPH       SHAWNEE            KS   ASOS

            MEASURED WIND GUST BY ASOS.

0850 PM     HAIL             2 NE GRANTVILLE         39.10N 95.53W
10/01/2014  E1.50 INCH       JEFFERSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

1006 PM     HAIL             5 NW BILLARD AIRPORT    39.14N 95.69W
10/01/2014  E1.00 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM SPOTTER ESTIMATED HAIL SIZE

1015 PM     HAIL             5 NE TOPEKA             39.10N 95.63W
10/01/2014  E1.25 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

1015 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NE TOPEKA             39.10N 95.63W
10/01/2014  E50.00 MPH       SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            50 MPH WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED WITH UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE
            HAIL.

1053 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NE SILVER LAKE        39.12N 95.84W
10/01/2014  M1.45 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE 7PM TODAY.

&&

HENNECKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
716 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 AM     HAIL             5 S CONCORDIA           39.50N 97.66W
10/02/2014  E1.50 INCH       CLOUD              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL ESTIMATED FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT.

&&

COMITT