Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
728 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Spring like conditions driving an early October forecast today as
severe storms have developed over southeastern Kansas and west
central Missouri.  Earlier clouds and showers over eastern Kansas
gave way to clearing early and then afternoon cumulus clouds as
daytime heating ensued.  Diffuse boundary / surface trof still
appears to extend from near Newton Kansas northeast through Council
Grove and into Wabaunsee county.  Morning and afternoon soundings
continue to show an unstable atmosphere, but low level winds in the
surface trof have weakened through the day.  Dewpoints near 70
continue to move northward into the counties south of the
interstate.

Conditional severe threat remains for east central Kansas. Lack of a
strong forcing mechanism over our area makes forecast more
difficult. However storms to the south have mid level energy moving
into SE Kansas and NE Oklahoma, and hodographs going straight in the
mid levels favor splits, with left movers approaching our south CWA
edge at this time. Primary threat from these storms will be large
hail and winds, although with outflow boundaries moving out of the
southern and eastern storms, will need to watch for tornado threat
as well. Worth mentioning these storms are producing considerable
lightning and locally heavy rainfall.  That said, the better
conditions come together primarily for the counties along and SE of
the turnpike where the watch is now in place. As the low level jet
increases later this evening, may see additional strengthening if
storms develop in south central Kansas and move into our southeast
as the latest HRRR would suggest.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Main upper trough axis ejects eastward into the central plains on
Thursday. The sfc low is progged to deepen through the day as it
phases with the upper wave. Showers and thunderstorms from the
overnight period will have made its way into north central KS by
Thurs. morning. A decent 30 to 40 kt h85 jet may also support
additional convection forming over east central KS. Through the day
on Thursday, the main frontal boundary continues to trend more
progressive in pushing east of the CWA by 00Z Friday. Dependent on
mesoscale factors such as if and when morning convection in the east
can clear out and where the boundary sets up by peak heating may
form a few strong to severe storms in the late afternoon. Far
eastern KS should see the best chances for severe weather with
mainly high wind and large hail the primary hazards. Localized
flooding may also pose a hazard for the entire area with an average
of 0.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall in the past 24 hours. Convection
clears east Thursday evening as a stronger upper wave plunges
southeast into the Great Lakes region. Strengthening mid and low
level wind field pickup sfc speeds from the northwest between 20 and
25 mph sustained on Friday. Consensus operational guidance is
hinting on a weak wave traversing through the mean flow across
northeast Kansas on Friday. While model soundings do not show ample
low level moisture, included a low end chance for showers. The main
story through the weekend will be strong subsidence and cold air
advection as highs fall Friday from the 70s to the 60s for Saturday.
May need frost headlines for Saturday AM as trends with h85 temps
continue to fall near 0C. Have lowered low temps down into the
middle and lower 30s area wide.

Extended period remains quiet and dry as northwest flow and blocking
ridge holds over the western CONUS. Airmass modulates back with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Another digging trough over
the Great Lakes region may push weak embedded waves southward into
the region on Wednesday where slight chances for precip were
mentioned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 720 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Scattered thunderstorms will affect the TAF sites for the
next 2-3 hours before temporarily ending with the potential for
another area of convection then aft 08z which could produce mvfr
cigs and brief ifr vsbys in heavy rain. Winds will shift to the northwest
and increase with mvfr stratus aft 19z as the cold front moves
through the taf sites.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...63

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
711 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-030015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
711 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN HAZARDS AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE.

OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AND TRACK
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF MORNING CONVECTION CAN CLEAR OUT... STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. DAMAGING
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY MORNING MAY DEVELOP
PATCHY FROST OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY STILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
842 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HAIL             WINCHESTER              39.32N 95.27W
10/01/2014  E1.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
848 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 PM     HAIL             BILLARD AIRPORT         39.08N 95.62W
10/01/2014  M1.00 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL OBSERVED BY FORECASTERS ON STATION AT
            TOPEKA NWS

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
849 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 PM     TSTM WND GST     BILLARD AIRPORT         39.08N 95.62W
10/01/2014  M66 MPH          SHAWNEE            KS   ASOS

            MEASURED WIND GUST BY ASOS.

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
852 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     HAIL             2 NE GRANTVILLE         39.10N 95.53W
10/01/2014  E1.50 INCH       JEFFERSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
858 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW TOPEKA             39.02N 95.72W
10/01/2014                   SHAWNEE            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            3.5 INCH LIMBS DOWN IN SW TOPEKA

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
901 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E GRIDLEY             38.10N 95.83W
10/01/2014                   COFFEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THREE POWER POLES AND LINES DOWN.

&&

KC