Alert archive / Missouri / Tornado Watches in 2014

Tornado Watch 511

October 1, 201417 counties in Kansas; 42 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 1, 2014, 2:40 PM CDT for 17 counties in Kansas; 42 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 1, 2014, 2:40 PM CDT (19:40 UTC)
Expired
Oct 1, 2014, 10:00 PM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 59 counties

Allen County, KS, Anderson County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Elk County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Labette County, KS, Linn County, KS, Miami County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Audrain County, MO, Barton County, MO, Bates County, MO, Benton County, MO, Boone County, MO, Callaway County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cass County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Cole County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Greene County, MO, Henry County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Maries County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Newton County, MO, Osage County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Saline County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Warren County, MO, Washington County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 53 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

37 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 1, 2:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXCooper, Howard, Johnson, Pettis, Saline43 min
Oct 1, 3:07 PM CDTTornado WarningEAXCooper, Pettis25 min
Oct 1, 3:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTNeosho, Wilson66 min
Oct 1, 3:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXCooper51 min
Oct 1, 3:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTAllen, Woodson33 min
Oct 1, 3:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPAnderson46 min
Oct 1, 3:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXBoone, Cole, Moniteau45 min
Oct 1, 3:32 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTLabette, Montgomery43 min
Oct 1, 3:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXLinn52 min
Oct 1, 4:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXBates, Cass42 min
Oct 1, 4:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXLinn, Miami50 min
Oct 1, 4:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPAnderson, Franklin50 min
Oct 1, 4:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFCherokee63 min
Oct 1, 4:12 PM CDTTornado WarningLSXBoone, Cole, Moniteau48 min
Oct 1, 4:14 PM CDTTornado WarningICTLabette46 min
Oct 1, 4:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXCass, Jackson39 min
Oct 1, 4:53 PM CDTTornado WarningLSXBoone, Callaway, Cole, Osage52 min
Oct 1, 4:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXJohnson, Miami34 min
Oct 1, 5:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFCherokee49 min
Oct 1, 5:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFJasper26 min
Oct 1, 5:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXCallaway, Gasconade, Montgomery, Osage34 min
Oct 1, 5:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXHenry38 min
Oct 1, 6:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBenton52 min
Oct 1, 6:26 PM CDTTornado WarningSGFBenton, Morgan34 min
Oct 1, 6:31 PM CDTTornado WarningEAXPettis21 min
Oct 1, 6:34 PM CDTTornado WarningSGFBenton26 min
Oct 1, 6:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTGreenwood52 min
Oct 1, 7:00 PM CDTTornado WarningSGFMorgan30 min
Oct 1, 7:11 PM CDTTornado WarningLSXCole, Moniteau49 min
Oct 1, 7:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTButler, Greenwood38 min
Oct 1, 7:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFMiller, Morgan37 min
Oct 1, 7:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTGreenwood, Woodson51 min
Oct 1, 7:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPCoffey50 min
Oct 1, 7:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXCole, Osage48 min
Oct 1, 8:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTAllen, Woodson30 min
Oct 1, 8:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPAnderson, Coffey46 min
Oct 1, 9:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPAnderson, Coffey52 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 140 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2014-10-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 665 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2014-10-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 372 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
665 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-101 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
600 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
372 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
374 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
14.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

572 
WWUS20 KWNS 011943
SEL1  
SPC WW 011943
KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-020300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 511
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
  CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
  FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM
  UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
EMPORIA KANSAS TO 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF VICHY MISSOURI.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
OVER CNTRL MO AS WELL AS AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SERN KS.
THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.


...MEAD

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 1, 1:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Bourbon, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Coffey and 11 more3 hr
Oct 1, 5:01 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCWyandotte2 hr
Oct 1, 5:54 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Doniphan and 15 more2 hr
Oct 1, 6:20 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Bourbon, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 14 more85 min
Oct 1, 6:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Doniphan and 19 more7 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2014Tornado Watches in Kansas, 2014Every tornado watch in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.