Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Topeka, KS

536 
WWUS53 KTOP 012042
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
342 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

KSC003-012115-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0170.000000T0000Z-141001T2115Z/
ANDERSON-
342 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDERSON
COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 339 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEOSHO 
FALLS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. A SECOND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF GARNETT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GARNETT...COLONY...LONE ELM...KINCAID AND GREELEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 9552 3834 9533 3838 9508 3804 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 208DEG 32KT 3800 9554

HAIL...2.50IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

GARGAN

027 
WWUS53 KTOP 012053
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
353 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

KSC003-012115-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0170.000000T0000Z-141001T2115Z/
ANDERSON-
353 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDERSON
COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 351 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHEAST 
OF NEOSHO FALLS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. A SECOND SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GARNETT...AND MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...HEN EGG SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GARNETT...COLONY...LONE ELM...KINCAID AND GREELEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 9552 3834 9533 3838 9508 3804 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 208DEG 32KT 3809 9548

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

GARGAN

908 
WWUS53 KTOP 012103
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
403 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

KSC003-012115-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0170.000000T0000Z-141001T2115Z/
ANDERSON-
403 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDERSON
COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 400 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
WESTPHALIA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. A SECOND SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GREELEY...AND MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GARNETT...KINCAID AND GREELEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 9552 3834 9533 3838 9508 3804 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 208DEG 32KT 3817 9543

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

GARGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
329 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Spring like conditions driving an early October forecast today as
severe storms have developed over southeastern Kansas and west
central Missouri.  Earlier clouds and showers over eastern Kansas
gave way to clearing early and then afternoon cumulus clouds as
daytime heating ensued.  Diffuse boundary / surface trof still
appears to extend from near Newton Kansas northeast through Council
Grove and into Wabaunsee county.  Morning and afternoon soundings
continue to show an unstable atmosphere, but low level winds in the
surface trof have weakened through the day.  Dewpoints near 70
continue to move northward into the counties south of the
interstate.

Conditional severe threat remains for east central Kansas. Lack of a
strong forcing mechanism over our area makes forecast more
difficult. However storms to the south have mid level energy moving
into SE Kansas and NE Oklahoma, and hodographs going straight in the
mid levels favor splits, with left movers approaching our south CWA
edge at this time. Primary threat from these storms will be large
hail and winds, although with outflow boundaries moving out of the
southern and eastern storms, will need to watch for tornado threat
as well. Worth mentioning these storms are producing considerable
lightning and locally heavy rainfall.  That said, the better
conditions come together primarily for the counties along and SE of
the turnpike where the watch is now in place. As the low level jet
increases later this evening, may see additional strengthening if
storms develop in south central Kansas and move into our southeast
as the latest HRRR would suggest.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Main upper trough axis ejects eastward into the central plains on
Thursday. The sfc low is progged to deepen through the day as it
phases with the upper wave. Showers and thunderstorms from the
overnight period will have made its way into north central KS by
Thurs. morning. A decent 30 to 40 kt h85 jet may also support
additional convection forming over east central KS. Through the day
on Thursday, the main frontal boundary continues to trend more
progressive in pushing east of the CWA by 00Z Friday. Dependent on
mesoscale factors such as if and when morning convection in the east
can clear out and where the boundary sets up by peak heating may
form a few strong to severe storms in the late afternoon. Far
eastern KS should see the best chances for severe weather with
mainly high wind and large hail the primary hazards. Localized
flooding may also pose a hazard for the entire area with an average
of 0.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall in the past 24 hours. Convection
clears east Thursday evening as a stronger upper wave plunges
southeast into the Great Lakes region. Strengthening mid and low
level wind field pickup sfc speeds from the northwest between 20 and
25 mph sustained on Friday. Consensus operational guidance is
hinting on a weak wave traversing through the mean flow across
northeast Kansas on Friday. While model soundings do not show ample
low level moisture, included a low end chance for showers. The main
story through the weekend will be strong subsidence and cold air
advection as highs fall Friday from the 70s to the 60s for Saturday.
May need frost headlines for Saturday AM as trends with h85 temps
continue to fall near 0C. Have lowered low temps down into the
middle and lower 30s area wide.

Extended period remains quiet and dry as northwest flow and blocking
ridge holds over the western CONUS. Airmass modulates back with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Another digging trough over
the Great Lakes region may push weak embedded waves southward into
the region on Wednesday where slight chances for precip were
mentioned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Kept similar as previous forecast with best chances for
thunderstorms actually occurring at a TAF site in the early
morning hours. In the meantime there should be storms near taf
sites late afternoon, and will then be followed by more widespread
showers and storms moving across eastern Kansas in the morning,
when prevailing mvfr rain/cigs more likely to move in.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...67

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
450 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-021000-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
450 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN FAR EASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING...THEN
SPOTTY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...MORE ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.  LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS.  EVEN A TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE.

LATER TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH SOME AREAS GETTING HEAVY RAIN.  THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
AFTER MIDNIGHT WOULD BE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THURSDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER 3 PM.