Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 384

July 2, 201430 counties in New York; 40 counties in Pennsylvania; 14 counties in Vermont

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 2, 2014, 11:14 AM EDT for 30 counties in New York; 40 counties in Pennsylvania; 14 counties in Vermont. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 2, 2014, 11:14 AM EDT (15:14 UTC)
Expired: Jul 2, 2014, 7:00 PM EDT
In force: 8 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 1.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 84 counties

Albany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Clinton County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Essex County, NY, Franklin County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Madison County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Adams County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Berks County, PA, Blair County, PA, Bradford County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Centre County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Pike County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Wyoming County, PA, York County, PA, Addison County, VT, Bennington County, VT, Caledonia County, VT, Chittenden County, VT, Essex County, VT, Franklin County, VT, Grand Isle County, VT, Lamoille County, VT, Orange County, VT, Orleans County, VT, Rutland County, VT, Washington County, VT, Windham County, VT, Windsor County, VT

The radar

The Albany radar (KENX), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 2%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 90%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 20%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 50%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 95%

Warnings issued inside it

39 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 2, 11:32 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Susquehanna	43 min
Jul 2, 11:56 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Lackawanna, Susquehanna, Wayne, Wyoming	64 min
Jul 2, 12:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Sullivan	52 min
Jul 2, 12:30 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Delaware, Sullivan	45 min
Jul 2, 12:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Lycoming, Montour, Northumberland, Union	54 min
Jul 2, 12:42 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	BGM	Sullivan	33 min
Jul 2, 12:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Albany, Columbia, Greene, Rensselaer	57 min
Jul 2, 12:53 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Ulster	67 min
Jul 2, 1:01 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	CTP	Lycoming	29 min
Jul 2, 1:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Delaware, Sullivan	67 min
Jul 2, 1:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Columbia, Sullivan	38 min
Jul 2, 1:23 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Delaware, Otsego	50 min
Jul 2, 1:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Luzerne, Wyoming	62 min
Jul 2, 1:34 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	Monroe	56 min
Jul 2, 1:35 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Lebanon	25 min
Jul 2, 1:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Dutchess, Ulster	39 min
Jul 2, 1:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Delaware, Sullivan	65 min
Jul 2, 1:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Albany, Columbia, Greene, Rensselaer	62 min
Jul 2, 1:46 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	BGM	Sullivan	4 hr
Jul 2, 1:47 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	Berks	58 min
Jul 2, 1:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Schoharie	57 min
Jul 2, 1:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Lancaster, Lebanon	49 min
Jul 2, 2:06 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Lackawanna, Luzerne, Wyoming	54 min
Jul 2, 2:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Warren, Washington	61 min
Jul 2, 2:18 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Lackawanna, Susquehanna, Wyoming	42 min
Jul 2, 2:26 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	ALY	Albany, Rensselaer, Saratoga, Schenectady	6 hr
Jul 2, 2:27 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Columbia, Dutchess	63 min
Jul 2, 2:38 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Albany, Schenectady, Schoharie	28 min
Jul 2, 2:38 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Sullivan	67 min
Jul 2, 2:49 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Columbia, Dutchess	56 min
Jul 2, 3:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Pike	45 min
Jul 2, 3:50 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Dutchess, Ulster	55 min
Jul 2, 3:51 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	ALY	Columbia, Dutchess, Ulster	6 hr
Jul 2, 3:51 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Pike	54 min
Jul 2, 4:03 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	Lehigh, Monroe, Northampton	57 min
Jul 2, 4:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Lancaster	63 min
Jul 2, 5:01 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	Berks	59 min
Jul 2, 5:31 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	PHI	Berks	4 hr
Jul 2, 6:44 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	PHI	Berks	4 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 3.2 hours before the alert went out and 110 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1263 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -38 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 897 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 48 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 85 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.4
Supercell composite: 2.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 2, 12:47 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegany, Livingston, Ontario, Schuyler, Seneca, Steuben and 1 more	58 min
Jul 2, 10:28 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Albany, Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Columbia, Cortland and 26 more	62 min
Jul 2, 12:45 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bronx, Columbia, Dutchess, Kings, Nassau, New York and 7 more	60 min
Jul 2, 1:22 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Bronx, Kings, Nassau, New York, Orange, Putnam and 4 more	9 hr
Jul 2, 4:27 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Albany, Bronx, Broome, Chenango, Clinton, Columbia and 24 more	93 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2014 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New York, 2014 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Vermont, 2014 Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.