Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1148 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSTABLE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND AN APPROACHING FRONT...WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME STORMS TODAY MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH
DAYS. DRY AND COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH MLCAPES
INCREASING TO 2000-3000 J/KG OVER NEPA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY. WEAK DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY AND WIND SHIFT CONVERGENT ZONE
BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND MIDLVL FORCING
BENEATH A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300 MB JET STREAK IS THE
SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AS A RESULT...SEVERE STORM
WATCH 384 HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 7 PM.

THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD LATER
TODAY WITH UPR LVL JET LIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT. DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD TAKE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS
OF VERY WEAK MIDLVL FEATURES SLIDING THROUGH THE BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW THAT COULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL PATCHES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THAT.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE
DAY...TEMPERED TEMPORARILY BY PASSING STORMS. MUGGY AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL DUE TO STALLING
FRONT...AND INDIRECT TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED FROM TROPICAL
SYSTEM THAT WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. SECONDARY LINGERING
CONCERN FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR AREA.

MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO HANG UP PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...AS IT
AWAITS PASSAGE OF A SHARPER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT WILL MERGE
WITH GENERAL BROAD UPPER TROUGH. IN FACT...BALANCE OF MODELS ONLY
GET THE SURFACE FRONT MIDWAY THROUGH THE AREA NOW ON THURSDAY. NOT
ONLY DOES THIS PERHAPS ALLOW FOR LINGERING GUSTY THUNDERSTORM
THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA /I.E. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT AND WITH CONTINUED DECENT SHEAR/...BUT ALSO A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG SSW JET WILL RESIDE SQUARELY
ACROSS OUR AREA...MEANWHILE INDIRECT FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL EXTEND WELL INLAND OF WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. THIS
SET UP APPEARS SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CALLED PREDECESSOR RAINFALL
EVENTS /ALSO CALLED PRE...WHICH ARE LINKED TO PAST FLASH FLOODING
EVENTS/...WITH JUXTAPOSITION OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ADVANCING UP
CAROLINA COAST...TO ENTRANCE REGION OF SOUTHWESTERLY JET TO THE
NORTH.

COMPARED TO PRIOR GUIDANCE...THE SLIGHTLY FURTHER
WESTWARD POSITIONING OF THESE INGREDIENTS HEIGHTENS CONCERNS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR NEPA INTO A GOOD
CHUNK OF CENTRAL NY...ESPECIALLY POCONOS- CATSKILLS /BUT NOT
LIMITED ONLY TO THERE...GIVEN CONTINUED SHIFTING OF JET AND FRONT
PLACEMENTS/. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH-AND- THREE- QUARTERS...AND SOUNDINGS
EXHIBIT AN INCREASINGLY MOIST- ADIABATIC LOOK WHICH WILL PROMOTE
EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES. WHILE I DO NOT YET HAVE THE CONFIDENCE
ON A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHICAL AREA FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...I COULD
SEE ONE BEING ISSUED FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCATIONS AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. OF COURSE...RAINFALL THAT FIRST OCCURS
TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL BE A PART OF THE DECISION OF WHICH AREAS WILL
BE MOST SENSITIVE TO ADDITIONAL RAINS THURSDAY.

RAIN AND THUNDER WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY...YIELDING TO LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL START
BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. FRIDAY LOOKS COOLER AND MAINLY DRY
AS CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO SUN...AND DRY NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP TO
CAUSE DEWPOINTS TO FALL THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM WED UPDATE...
AGAIN LITTLE CHANGE AND FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY SAT TO SUN NGT THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. BUSY ON RADAR SO MOSTLY
MINOR TWEEKS TO CURRENT WPC GUIDANCE.

2 PM TUE UPDATE...
LOOKING AT FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
DECIDED TO FOLLOW CLOSELY TO WPC GUIDANCE AGAIN TODAY AND MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRIOR FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE MID-WEST BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH SAT MORNING. THE
EXPECTED COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRIDAY AND NW
SFC IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT. AS NW
FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP DUE TO LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE CWA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AND SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
CWA. A SFC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE CWA WITH QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE WARMING TREND HEADING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPR 40S TO MID 50S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM MIDDAY AND MOVE THROUGH
CENT NY 17 TO 21Z AND AVP BY 24Z. THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS AND MAYBE IFR VSBYS.

THIS EVENING MOSTLY VFR AGAIN. LATE TONIGHT FOG SHOULD FORM AGAIN.
SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND LOWER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
EXPECTED RAIN. ALL BUT SYR SHOULD HAVE MVFR VSBYS. ELM MAY DROP TO
IFR LATE.

WINDS S TO SW AT 5 KTS EARLY BUT EAST AT RME AND LVAR ELM/AVP.
DURING THE DAY S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THU...RESTRICTIONS FROM RA/TSRA AS MOIST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

THU NGT THROUGH SUN...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG
KELM EACH DAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH/TAC
AVIATION...TAC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
422 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044-055-PAZ038-030830-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-TIOGA-
BRADFORD-
422 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS DESIGNATED OUR REGION AS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...THOUGH HAIL AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. STORMS TODAY MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE THE
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. IF STORMS MANAGE TO TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER
THE SAME LOCATION...ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY...OTHERWISE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

NYZ045-046-056-057-062-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072-030830-
CHENANGO-OTSEGO-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-
WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
422 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS DESIGNATED OUR REGION AS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...THOUGH HAIL AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. STORMS TODAY MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE THE
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. IF STORMS MANAGE TO TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER
THE SAME LOCATION...ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STALLED FRONT...AND AN INDIRECT TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED FROM WHAT
IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR...WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED
FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCATIONS IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS THREAT
INCREASES. ALSO...SOME STORMS THURSDAY MAY STILL CONTAIN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1049 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 AM     TSTM WND DMG     NORTH TOWANDA           41.78N  76.45W
07/02/2014                   BRADFORD           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON VEHICLE

&&

JML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1134 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 AM     HAIL             WARREN CENTER           41.93N  76.17W
07/02/2014  M1.00 INCH       BRADFORD           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1200 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1159 AM     HAIL             MONTROSE                41.83N  75.88W
07/02/2014  M0.88 INCH       SUSQUEHANNA        PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JML