Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1148 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSTABLE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND AN APPROACHING FRONT...WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME STORMS TODAY MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH
DAYS. DRY AND COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH MLCAPES
INCREASING TO 2000-3000 J/KG OVER NEPA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY. WEAK DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY AND WIND SHIFT CONVERGENT ZONE
BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND MIDLVL FORCING
BENEATH A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300 MB JET STREAK IS THE
SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AS A RESULT...SEVERE STORM
WATCH 384 HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 7 PM.

THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD LATER
TODAY WITH UPR LVL JET LIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT. DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD TAKE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS
OF VERY WEAK MIDLVL FEATURES SLIDING THROUGH THE BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW THAT COULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL PATCHES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THAT.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE
DAY...TEMPERED TEMPORARILY BY PASSING STORMS. MUGGY AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL DUE TO STALLING
FRONT...AND INDIRECT TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED FROM TROPICAL
SYSTEM THAT WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. SECONDARY LINGERING
CONCERN FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR AREA.

MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO HANG UP PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...AS IT
AWAITS PASSAGE OF A SHARPER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT WILL MERGE
WITH GENERAL BROAD UPPER TROUGH. IN FACT...BALANCE OF MODELS ONLY
GET THE SURFACE FRONT MIDWAY THROUGH THE AREA NOW ON THURSDAY. NOT
ONLY DOES THIS PERHAPS ALLOW FOR LINGERING GUSTY THUNDERSTORM
THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA /I.E. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT AND WITH CONTINUED DECENT SHEAR/...BUT ALSO A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG SSW JET WILL RESIDE SQUARELY
ACROSS OUR AREA...MEANWHILE INDIRECT FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL EXTEND WELL INLAND OF WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. THIS
SET UP APPEARS SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CALLED PREDECESSOR RAINFALL
EVENTS /ALSO CALLED PRE...WHICH ARE LINKED TO PAST FLASH FLOODING
EVENTS/...WITH JUXTAPOSITION OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ADVANCING UP
CAROLINA COAST...TO ENTRANCE REGION OF SOUTHWESTERLY JET TO THE
NORTH.

COMPARED TO PRIOR GUIDANCE...THE SLIGHTLY FURTHER
WESTWARD POSITIONING OF THESE INGREDIENTS HEIGHTENS CONCERNS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR NEPA INTO A GOOD
CHUNK OF CENTRAL NY...ESPECIALLY POCONOS- CATSKILLS /BUT NOT
LIMITED ONLY TO THERE...GIVEN CONTINUED SHIFTING OF JET AND FRONT
PLACEMENTS/. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH-AND- THREE- QUARTERS...AND SOUNDINGS
EXHIBIT AN INCREASINGLY MOIST- ADIABATIC LOOK WHICH WILL PROMOTE
EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES. WHILE I DO NOT YET HAVE THE CONFIDENCE
ON A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHICAL AREA FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...I COULD
SEE ONE BEING ISSUED FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCATIONS AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. OF COURSE...RAINFALL THAT FIRST OCCURS
TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL BE A PART OF THE DECISION OF WHICH AREAS WILL
BE MOST SENSITIVE TO ADDITIONAL RAINS THURSDAY.

RAIN AND THUNDER WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY...YIELDING TO LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL START
BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. FRIDAY LOOKS COOLER AND MAINLY DRY
AS CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO SUN...AND DRY NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP TO
CAUSE DEWPOINTS TO FALL THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM WED UPDATE...
AGAIN LITTLE CHANGE AND FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY SAT TO SUN NGT THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. BUSY ON RADAR SO MOSTLY
MINOR TWEEKS TO CURRENT WPC GUIDANCE.

2 PM TUE UPDATE...
LOOKING AT FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
DECIDED TO FOLLOW CLOSELY TO WPC GUIDANCE AGAIN TODAY AND MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRIOR FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE MID-WEST BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH SAT MORNING. THE
EXPECTED COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRIDAY AND NW
SFC IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT. AS NW
FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP DUE TO LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE CWA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AND SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
CWA. A SFC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE CWA WITH QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE WARMING TREND HEADING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPR 40S TO MID 50S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM MIDDAY AND MOVE THROUGH
CENT NY 17 TO 21Z AND AVP BY 24Z. THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS AND MAYBE IFR VSBYS.

THIS EVENING MOSTLY VFR AGAIN. LATE TONIGHT FOG SHOULD FORM AGAIN.
SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND LOWER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
EXPECTED RAIN. ALL BUT SYR SHOULD HAVE MVFR VSBYS. ELM MAY DROP TO
IFR LATE.

WINDS S TO SW AT 5 KTS EARLY BUT EAST AT RME AND LVAR ELM/AVP.
DURING THE DAY S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THU...RESTRICTIONS FROM RA/TSRA AS MOIST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

THU NGT THROUGH SUN...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG
KELM EACH DAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH/TAC
AVIATION...TAC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
107 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

NYZ015>017-022-023-031715-
YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-
107 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STALLED FRONT...AND AN INDIRECT TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED FROM
WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR...WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED AREAS
OF FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS OR URBAN AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ009-018-024-025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-
047-048-072-031715-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-ONONDAGA-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-
CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-
SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-
SOUTHERN WAYNE-
107 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 384 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STALLED FRONT...AND AN INDIRECT TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED FROM
WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR...WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED AREAS
OF FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS OR URBAN AREAS.

THEN...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

JAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1217 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 AM     HAIL             FRIENDSVILLE            41.92N  76.05W
07/02/2014  M1.75 INCH       SUSQUEHANNA        PA   PUBLIC

&&

JML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1229 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 PM     HAIL             BROOKLYN                41.75N  75.81W
07/02/2014  M2.00 INCH       SUSQUEHANNA        PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JML

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1257 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1248 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LIVINGSTON MANOR        41.90N  74.83W
07/02/2014                   SULLIVAN           NY   PUBLIC

            REPORTED TREE INTO HOUSE AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

&&

JSY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1259 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1249 PM     HAIL             LIVINGSTON MANOR        41.90N  74.83W
07/02/2014  M1.50 INCH       SULLIVAN           NY   PUBLIC

&&

JML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
106 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0104 PM     HAIL             WOODBOURNE              41.75N  74.60W
07/02/2014  E1.25 INCH       SULLIVAN           NY   PUBLIC

&&

JSY